Author Topic: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals  (Read 1883928 times)

Dazel

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #570 on: April 01, 2012, 05:35:50 PM »
« Last Edit: April 01, 2012, 05:41:02 PM by Dazel »


Green King

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #571 on: April 01, 2012, 07:36:16 PM »
Dazel

Do you know they calculate those odds ? Game theory ??

Thanks

GK


Link01,


Altius is trading like iron ore is trading at $75...so no I am not worried. Your report is from June 2011...the world was ending as Europe was imploding which would end china, the u.s was about to default on their debt as they were done too...I can find you reports that will say iron ore will be $200 a ton too...I think they are also useless.
China's slow down has slowed down iron ore production....brazil produced less in 2011... I am comfortable with $118... I do not want to see anything above $150 because it does not help long term.
China will build out their infrastructure for the super power of an economy you can be sure...there WILL be hiccups as there is now...but we are in the Jeremy Grantham camp that puts iron ore trend reversal odds of 2 million to one...we like those odds. However, I can not tell you what the price of iron ore will be in 2016.... But more importantly no one else can either.

The best part is we do not have to pay for any risk at Altius...it is in the price already!!

Dazel
GK

JAllen

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #572 on: April 01, 2012, 07:39:17 PM »
Dazel

Do you know they calculate those odds ? Game theory ??

Thanks

GK


Link01,


Altius is trading like iron ore is trading at $75...so no I am not worried. Your report is from June 2011...the world was ending as Europe was imploding which would end china, the u.s was about to default on their debt as they were done too...I can find you reports that will say iron ore will be $200 a ton too...I think they are also useless.
China's slow down has slowed down iron ore production....brazil produced less in 2011... I am comfortable with $118... I do not want to see anything above $150 because it does not help long term.
China will build out their infrastructure for the super power of an economy you can be sure...there WILL be hiccups as there is now...but we are in the Jeremy Grantham camp that puts iron ore trend reversal odds of 2 million to one...we like those odds. However, I can not tell you what the price of iron ore will be in 2016.... But more importantly no one else can either.

The best part is we do not have to pay for any risk at Altius...it is in the price already!!

Dazel

I've been wondering exactly what they meant as well.  I think that iron ore has had the biggest percentage increase of any commodity (>1000&) which is my guess about why iron ore leads their list of paradigm shifts for commodity prices....

beerbaron

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #573 on: April 02, 2012, 09:35:58 AM »
I believe it was all discussed by Bill Gross at Pimpco. And they ended up with a 1 in 1 000 000 chance that the iron ore increase was due to volatility.

BeerBaron

Dazel

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #574 on: April 04, 2012, 07:11:43 AM »
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-04-02/fortescue-s-power-says-china-steel-demand-very-strong


Fortescue is not far off it's 52 week high....they are 17%...owned by Chinese interests and no one is more wired to China than they are...

Dazel

Dazel

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #575 on: April 04, 2012, 07:17:22 AM »


Beer baron,


I am referring to the work that was done by Jeremy grantham...a link has been posted here before..the thread is getting a little long...it was not due to volatility in their analysis...

It was the probability of reversing the iron ore trend...2 million  to one chance of that...they used 100 years of data...
As we know GMO...does their homework.

Dazel.

Green King

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #576 on: April 04, 2012, 09:12:29 AM »
How did they get it ?
what methods did they use?
how do i know if they are right and how do i get a mental model of what they have done ?



Beer baron,


I am referring to the work that was done by Jeremy grantham...a link has been posted here before..the thread is getting a little long...it was not due to volatility in their analysis...

It was the probability of reversing the iron ore trend...2 million  to one chance of that...they used 100 years of data...
As we know GMO...does their homework.

Dazel.
GK

link01

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #577 on: April 04, 2012, 10:05:56 AM »


Beer baron,


I am referring to the work that was done by Jeremy grantham...a link has been posted here before..the thread is getting a little long...it was not due to volatility in their analysis...

It was the probability of reversing the iron ore trend...2 million  to one chance of that...they used 100 years of data...
As we know GMO...does their homework.

Dazel.



Beer baron,


I am referring to the work that was done by Jeremy grantham...a link has been posted here before..the thread is getting a little long...it was not due to volatility in their analysis...

It was the probability of reversing the iron ore trend...2 million  to one chance of that...they used 100 years of data...
As we know GMO...does their homework.

Dazel.

dazel, i own a some altius in an ira account (are they a PFIC for US investors?) because of your ongoing generous & compelling analysis of it on this board (& because its trading at just above book with a nice cash cusion, plus they seem to be thoughthful capital allocators who dont indiscrimately spray tons of share issuance for acqusisitions at every turn), but looking at at chart of iron ore prices for the past 10 yrs presents---for me, at least---argues for some caution:

http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=iron-ore&months=180

despite what GMO opines iron ore prices look like they might have an air pocket underneath it if the tug of war between inflation & deflation goes the latters way. commodities in general have been a big beneficiary of the worldwide credit boom over the last decades. but then again, so have bonds because of the incrementally slower growth that each dollar of defcit spending has bought, & with it, the prospect of a deflationary slump when the music stops. at that point i'll be looking more aggressively for inflatioanry investing themes.

Liberty

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #578 on: April 04, 2012, 10:50:37 AM »
After reading some Nassim Taleb I'm now very suspicious of any predictions of "1 chance in 1 million" or whatever, but I do foresee that base metals will benefit from a large portion of the world developing. South-America, Asia, Africa.. Even the US economy going back to normal.

And if things don't go well for a while, well, Altius has no debt, lots of cash to deploy, and great capital allocators who own a good number of shares in charge. So I'm not worried. This is what reassures me, rather than quantitative predictions.
"Most haystacks don't even have a needle." |  I'm on Twitter  | This podcast episode is a must-listen

Dazel

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #579 on: April 05, 2012, 06:41:40 AM »


Green king,


You do not and will not know if they are right...but their analysis is different from Taleb who is always pedi ting a black swan will appear....GMO called the market meltdown on fundamental analysis and think Fairfax got a lot of their information from GMO. I am not saying we could not have a pullback in iron ore quite frankly it would be beneficial to have a pull back.
Why?
Supply demand. GMO's thesis is that there demand will continue will continue to outstrip supply....why? Iron ore was under produced for so long because of it's low price....the opposite happens at these prices...more supply comes on...however, remember 2008? The were a ton (pardon the pun) of projects delayed and shelved during that period...you cannot just bring supply on it takes the better part of a decade to get mine going. If prices were to fall back it would actually help Altius because there iron ore properties are in an iron ore district...infrastructure is already there. That is why Thompson Consolidated were able to plug through 2008 and 2009....low cost is the key. Alderon would benefit from a drop in iron ore prices.

Dazel.