After reading some Nassim Taleb I'm now very suspicious of any predictions of "1 chance in 1 million" or whatever, but I do foresee that base metals will benefit from a large portion of the world developing. South-America, Asia, Africa.. Even the US economy going back to normal.
And if things don't go well for a while, well, Altius has no debt, lots of cash to deploy, and great capital allocators who own a good number of shares in charge. So I'm not worried. This is what reassures me, rather than quantitative predictions.