ALS.TO - Altius Minerals

[Liberty]

You do not and will not know if they are right...but their analysis is different from Taleb who is always pedi ting a black swan will appear....

I was more basing my comment on Fooled by Randomness than on The Black Swan. In it he makes a very good point that people assume that events follow a guassian distribution while in fact that's not the case. The math whizes believe that things are actually more predictable than they are. Hi prescription to survive and thrive in this umpredictable world (where we regularly see events that people once predicted were once-in-a-thousand years events..) is to have robust and resilient systems. I believe that Altius is one such robust and resilient company.

[Dazel]

Liberty,


Thanks for the remarks....

I am a value investor. We will leave the predicting to others...we buy a buck for 50 cents. That simple....the macro is not our game. The macro I provide is other people' s analysis...I spend very little time on it....just pass it on. Our best case scenario is that commodities get crushed on the same arguments we are talking about. Altius is in the drivers seat....they can pick bucks all over the place for 50 cents....they are investors...NOT MINERS.
That is why we own them...

http://www.google.com/finance?q=TSE%3ALIF.UN

Labrador iron ore royalty is an example of what is possible at Altius..the market has priced this in at a value of 0...after 9 years of developing their iron ore properties from scratch.


Most importantly our upside is Free....there inventory of assets are priced at close to zero.

[Liberty]

I think we're pretty much on the same wavelength, Dazel. I too sometimes look at macro predictions, but I don't give them much weight. What matters to me is good management, good assets, good price, good downside protection.

[Dazel]

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2012/04/09/china-housing-bubble-is-over-says-jim-rogers/


More info on china...take it for what is worth but we are seeing iron ore tick up..and hold steady around $150...there is only one reason for that and it is china.

Dazel.

[Liberty]

Video about Alderon:

http://alderonironore.com/_resources/videos/alderon_video_20120321.html

[Dazel]

http://www.commodityonline.com/news/indonesian-ore-export-ban-to-be-supportive-for-nickel-commerzbank-47137-3-47138.html

Altius Voisey bay royalty and nickel holdings just got huge boost!!

Dazel.

[bathtime]

Globe and Mail article on Alderon as possible takeover candidate:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/alderons-pedigree-makes-it-a-takeover-target/article2397582/

[naboo]

Is now the best time to sell alderon? why not wait till the beingging of the production?

Globe and Mail article on Alderon as possible takeover candidate:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/alderons-pedigree-makes-it-a-takeover-target/article2397582/

[Dazel]

They will not be selling here...if it were to triple like the article suggested they would be sellers...the more likely scenario is they sell at the $6 level to a producer that assures them the quickest production.

As I have said the royalty is worth more than all Altius right now. The market does not care right now...and we are fine with that...it is coming together as we expected.

Dazel

[Ross812]

I've been pouring over Altius trying to get more comfortable with them before I increase the size of my position. I found an interesting blog that discussed Altius's involvement with the Lower Churchill Hydro Royalty, and the NLRC. The post draws a lot of connections showing Altius's government connections. The post concludes with the author buying shares in Altius, so don't let the author's tone get to you too early.

http://rocksolidpolitics.blogspot.com/search/label/Altius

I am trying to invert and find a reason to short Altius before buying any more. Has anyone else tried this. Have you come up with anything? Was the NLRC blowup the reason the stock price fell? I'm looking for anything that could derail this investment. Right now, it seems the company is riding on Alderon. Are they being discounted because half their market cap is invested in a junior miner?