ALS.TO - Altius Minerals

[biaggio]

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/rick-rules-primer-contrarian-speculation

Possible opportunities for ALS to make good deal in depressed/distressed junior resource sector?

[Liberty]

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/rick-rules-primer-contrarian-speculation

Possible opportunities for ALS to make good deal in depressed/distressed junior resource sector?

Thanks, Rick Rule is always interesting to listen to.

Hopefully ALS can deploy significant capital in the near future.

[Eric50]

Brent Cook very bullish on Alderon (early in video)

http://watch.bnn.ca/wednesday#clip671139

[Dazel]

http://mobius.blog.franklintempleton.com/2012/05/01/chinas-landing-pattern/#more-1424


Only Jim Rogers seems to be taking this point of view...Möbius a Sir John Templeton understudy is famous in the developing country investment world. This is a good piece on China...he is betting on consumers and commodities...with industrial infrasture build out as the reason...iron ore should do fine in this environment.

Dazel

[alertmeipp]

Buyback can start now

[biaggio]

Looking to add.

Interesting article on "contraction" starting to be seen in China.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/9263196/World-edges-closer-to-deflationary-slump-as-money-contracts-in-China.html

Can t be good for iron + other commodity producers-in the short term- but I am betting that we will get inflation after a brief episode of some deflation- but who knows?

ALS seems to be in good shape either way-will do well with alderon iron deposit with inflation. Large cash on balance sheet could be put to work in deflationary time.

Will average in a bit with further price weakness in near future.

[roughlyright]

Hello guys,

  I am already long on Altius for a while and added more today. Alderon now dropped to $2.47. Do you think Alderon provides a better margin of safety, because now we have a Chinese partner in place and the resource estimates look great? What do you think is a conservative value of Alderon?

Roughlyright

[Dazel]

We like what is happening....tough on some to see the market price their ownership of shares at a lower rate...
We do not feel that way....oil falling helps the world...it brings down costs everywhere...we love to see iron ore fall to 100.... Because it will take high cost producers out of the market...remember we will not be producing for a couple of years...and a fall in commodities will be extremely helpful for input costs in building the mine at Alderon and Aurora. Alderon like Thompson Consolidated will go ahead regardless of what happens...remember Thompson went ahead in 2009!!!!! We have a $40 a ton cost...but the build out costs can be brought down significantly by a pull back in their input costs. The inflationary pressure in china and India....Europe is enormous...this will be a helpful pullback....we do not want china going full speed ahead now...we want to see it in 2 years when we are looking production. Alderon's partner is not looking at this year or next they are looking at the next decade...they have to...the money for the buildout is there.

The Biggest opportunity we see is that Altius buys significant amounts of shares back but more
importantly we get a chance to allocate capital and get a return.... An 80% return on $100m allocated similar to the IRC transaction....Royal Gold's biggest royalty is still Voisey Bay! These guys are similar to Leucadia they will not buy unless the get a 25 to 50 cent dollar and they have been extremely patient. We would like to see a return on our liquid capital....aaa and then the royalties...which will nirvana.

We think that Jeremy Grantham's thoughts have come true and this will be the opportunity of a life time to buy "things" because of the pull back...Leucadia agrees...and we have the best in the business "Altius" sitting on a mountain of cash waiting for it....Batter up here come the strikes down the middle of the plate.



Disclaimer...we have only added shares since we took a position several years ago...we are here for
the long haul.


Dazel.


It may not seem like it but Altius is perfectly positioned for this...as their management stated llast  August "bring on he blood bath"....they did not get the opportunity there but we are seeing commodity stocks get crushed right now....they have gotten what they hoped for.

[Dazel]

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/altius-announces-establishment-automatic-repurchase-120000481.html


This is great news....it allows them to do material events...ie negotiation on deals etc...and a third party broker will be able to buy shares....without knowledge of what is going on with deals.

Dazel.

[Liberty]

We like what is happening....tough on some to see the market price their ownership of shares at a lower rate...
We do not feel that way....oil falling helps the world...it brings down costs everywhere...we love to see iron ore fall to 100.... Because it will take high cost producers out of the market...remember we will not be producing for a couple of years...and a fall in commodities will be extremely helpful for input costs in building the mine at Alderon and Aurora. Alderon like Thompson Consolidated will go ahead regardless of what happens...remember Thompson went ahead in 2009!!!!! We have a $40 a ton cost...but the build out costs can be brought down significantly by a pull back in their input costs. The inflationary pressure in china and India....Europe is enormous...this will be a helpful pullback....we do not want china going full speed ahead now...we want to see it in 2 years when we are looking production. Alderon's partner is not looking at this year or next they are looking at the next decade...they have to...the money for the buildout is there

I like the way you think. Turmoil right now can indeed lower Alderon and Aurora's costs, remove competitors, and allow them to deploy capital.

Good news on the automatic repurchase plan. The end result should be that they will be able to buy back more than they otherwise could, so can't hurt.