Author Topic: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals  (Read 2064175 times)

GlennAS

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China, iron ore, etc. - ItsAValueTrap
« Reply #810 on: September 17, 2012, 09:10:05 PM »
(smile) No problem on the zerohedge front. They certainly do have a persistently bearish undertone.

((As far as the macro picture goes, I personally believe that it's better to stick to the more obvious macro calls.))

A lot of different ways to invest/speculate/manage risk. I like to make timely bets on tail events. If I stuck to what was obvious, I'd never make any money! LOL!

((The biggest risk that Altius faces is not a massive, terrible collapse in the Chinese economy (which is unlikely anyways... they are a creditor nation). ))

I think that is a flawed statement. The US was the world's largest creditor nation in the 1920's too. There were those that argued in the 1920's that "the US cannot face a terrible collapse in their economy because they are a creditor nation". The problem in the US in the 20's - and I think a case could be made re: China today - is that the US supressed interests rates in the 1920's (to artifically support the British pound) which led to a massive speculative bubble, massive overcapacity, and a huge amount of misallocated capital. China is showing many of the same problems in their banking sector (official and shadow).

I agree that additional supply is already in the pipeline which could contribute to overcapacity (although many of these projects may not see the light of day). But in China, there's already been significant misallocation of capital in infrastructure and real estate - Hugh Hendry has a nice piece on this from April: http://www.scribd.com/doc/91764042/April-2012-TEF-Commentary.

Anyway, I'm not religious the trajectory of China one way or another. I do, however, think there's downside risk that may not be fully appreciated by the market. But maybe I'm wrong. Maybe money printing can truly solve all the world's problems. ;)

FWIW.
glenn


Dazel

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #811 on: September 18, 2012, 12:08:53 PM »
"The biggest risk that Altius faces is not a massive, terrible collapse in the Chinese economy (which is unlikely anyways... they are a creditor nation).  Their biggest macro risk is probably iron ore prices... supply has gone up dramatically in the past several years and more supply is coming online (everybody is expanding production).  Eventually there will be a wave of overbuilding and things could get ugly, like what happened in the drybulk sector"

iron ore prices have dropped in half....we had tsunami in japan that destroyed the uranium market....that is why Altius is trading where it is...so short term these are negative factors because the market gives 0 valuation on the huge iron ore and uranium deposits that they stand to collect royalties on..."they have had the risk happen"...that is why they held on to their cash...

These are big events and they both together have surpressed the future production that everyone was suspecting in iron ore market (the market expected expanding production...it is being curtalied!) and the uranium market well that fell off a cliff. This what Jim Rogers has been talking about....it is not that world is in great shape.

His Bet
A)If the world economies slowed down governments would print money and future mine production would be curtailed. B)If the world economy was strong they would use the commodities in demand.

A) happened. They are printing money while massive production cuts in iron ore accross the globe have happened....uranium is already 18 months into the curtailment of uranium...and quite frankly I am quite excited by the uranium dynamics.

Altius has fortress of cash to wait it out and possibly benefit more from increased investment...either way the share count will be way down when both Paladin and Alderon begin production...

You want to bring a mine on during low prices...and sell your product at high prices...that is what we are looking at...the stimulus of all central banks will take time to kick in...Altius will stand to benefit when this happens....

dazel.

Dazel

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #812 on: September 18, 2012, 01:31:08 PM »
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/677bd13a-01a9-11e2-8aaa-00144feabdc0.html#axzz26r10M5hI


we are hoping that the quick rebound in pricing does not change the announced curtailment of iron ore production and the our scenario in the previous post plays out...


Dazel.

Dazel

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #813 on: September 18, 2012, 02:01:53 PM »
http://www.resourceinvestor.com/2012/09/17/uranium-fundamentals-are-at-tipping-point-alka-sin?page=2

good interview on the uranium market.

her top pick Paladin Energy.

Dazel.


Liberty

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #814 on: September 25, 2012, 08:43:17 AM »

Dazel

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #815 on: September 30, 2012, 06:27:31 AM »

ItsAValueTrap

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #816 on: September 30, 2012, 10:16:30 PM »
Dazel, I am curious.

#1- What's your opinion on all the analysts on being so incredibly bearish on iron ore prices in the long term?

Most analysts do this for gold too... which I find to be weird.  And then on the oil side, apparently analysts are very bullish.  I'm not sure if the mining analysts factor in higher production costs in the future... but together they are saying that iron ore prices will crash and production costs will go up.  And they are telling clients to buy!  What a bizarre world.

#2- Does Grandich being a shill bother you? 
Is this a value investing message board or a pump and dump message board?  :P
"It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price. " -Buffett

my blog

Dazel

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #817 on: October 01, 2012, 01:57:46 AM »

It's a value trap,

#1.  And #2.    We do our own work....I had no comment on the Dundee piece on Alderon....they are hardly bearish with a target price of $6...but the information posted is for people to make their own opinion...(grandich) we take newsletter writers and analysts with a grain of salt. We like facts to make our own decisions...unfortunately there is not a lot of information on companies like Altius or their assets so we are trying pass on information that's all.
In fairness a lot of the negativity in the industry has been related to short selling...Some of it warranted some of it not...either way it is hype....the investor has to be able to sort through the bullshit and make a decision for themselves. Compared to to he absolute travesty of analyst pushing the "Groupons of the world"....Morgan Stanley et all....the entire junior mining market would have been lost in the $8 billion market cap evaporated by the Groupon scam! Sorry you have me ranting.

Back to the point....
So in this case what is the Alderon assets worth and how much is the royalty worth to Altius. That is
all we care about. My next post is fact....a takeover offer rejected from steel producers...that is what we like...what are the assets worth to a business...not newsletter, analysts, hedge funds...Posco
owned by Warren Buffett has made the offer....that gives a barometer of what we think The Alderon
asset and subsequent Altius royalty is worth now and what it will be worth as a producer. Hope that helps.

Dazel.

Dazel

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #818 on: October 01, 2012, 02:02:32 AM »
http://www.iol.co.za/business/companies/australia-s-arrium-rejects-1bn-bid-1.1393090#.UGlUHaN5mSM

Some takeover action in the steel market....we like to see that it is Posco (steel producer from Korea owned by Warren Buffett) doing the bidding with the Korean pension funds...operators are seeing some value in the iron ore industry.

Dazel.

Dazel

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #819 on: October 10, 2012, 02:18:10 AM »
http://www.canadianinsider.com/node/7?ticker=ALS

Altius share count continues to fall.

Dazel