(smile) No problem on the zerohedge front. They certainly do have a persistently bearish undertone.
((As far as the macro picture goes, I personally believe that it's better to stick to the more obvious macro calls.))
A lot of different ways to invest/speculate/manage risk. I like to make timely bets on tail events. If I stuck to what was obvious, I'd never make any money! LOL!
((The biggest risk that Altius faces is not a massive, terrible collapse in the Chinese economy (which is unlikely anyways... they are a creditor nation). ))
I think that is a flawed statement. The US was the world's largest creditor nation in the 1920's too. There were those that argued in the 1920's that "the US cannot face a terrible collapse in their economy because they are a creditor nation". The problem in the US in the 20's - and I think a case could be made re: China today - is that the US supressed interests rates in the 1920's (to artifically support the British pound) which led to a massive speculative bubble, massive overcapacity, and a huge amount of misallocated capital. China is showing many of the same problems in their banking sector (official and shadow).
I agree that additional supply is already in the pipeline which could contribute to overcapacity (although many of these projects may not see the light of day). But in China, there's already been significant misallocation of capital in infrastructure and real estate - Hugh Hendry has a nice piece on this from April:
http://www.scribd.com/doc/91764042/April-2012-TEF-Commentary.
Anyway, I'm not religious the trajectory of China one way or another. I do, however, think there's downside risk that may not be fully appreciated by the market. But maybe I'm wrong. Maybe money printing can truly solve all the world's problems.
FWIW.
glenn
