Author Topic: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals  (Read 2072953 times)

Dazel

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #820 on: October 10, 2012, 02:22:48 AM »


FFHWatcher

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #821 on: October 10, 2012, 05:12:09 AM »
http://www.canadianinsider.com/node/7?ticker=ALS

Altius share count continues to fall.

Dazel

If these shares that they repurchase come through public markets (I assume), why aren't they showing up or matching up in daily volumes?  Perhaps they buy small amounts daily and then cancel them at the end of each month?  For example, that report shows the trade date as Sept 30th at 103,464 shares.  1/ Sept 30th was Sunday.  2/ 103,464 is more than the daily trading volume for everyday except for Aug. 28th. 

Perhaps they are issuing shares internally for options, etc. and then simply using cash to buy back the shares at market prices, although Sedi.ca does show them as Public Market transactions.  Altius is coding the transactions as "NCIB - returned to Treasury" which makes sense.

Either way, good news that share count is falling

jjsto

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #822 on: October 10, 2012, 05:31:38 AM »
If these shares that they repurchase come through public markets (I assume), why aren't they showing up or matching up in daily volumes?  Perhaps they buy small amounts daily and then cancel them at the end of each month?  For example, that report shows the trade date as Sept 30th at 103,464 shares.  1/ Sept 30th was Sunday.  2/ 103,464 is more than the daily trading volume for everyday except for Aug. 28th. 

Perhaps they are issuing shares internally for options, etc. and then simply using cash to buy back the shares at market prices, although Sedi.ca does show them as Public Market transactions.  Altius is coding the transactions as "NCIB - returned to Treasury" which makes sense.

Either way, good news that share count is falling

It seems what is happening is that Altius is reporting share redemption and shares acquired in the open market one time at the beginning of each month.  Those are most likely monthly totals under their repurchase plan.  There is generally a slightly different amount reported (103k/87k this month and 64k/69k last month) which might be related to purchase date/settlement date differences.  If there are +/- 20 business days in a month then 5k shares per day would be around 100k shares per month.  This fits with both the daily volume, and the price support at 10.  It seems like whenever the share price is below 11 they buy back close to their daily limit which I think (no link) is around 5k shares.   Like you said whatever the details, the important point is share count continues to fall. 

Dazel

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #823 on: October 10, 2012, 10:40:09 AM »
http://altiusminerals.com/press-releases/view/259


Altius has an automatic purchase program so they are able to purchase shares while management is in possession of material information....

Brokers are only allowed to buy a certain percentage of daily volume and the shares repurchased are redeemed at months end....

Dazel.

Eric50

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #824 on: October 10, 2012, 12:12:46 PM »
Dazel -

I'm surprised Altius hasn't used the steep correction in the Canadian resource sector this spring/early summer to take new positions and make its cash work. I think that's also something you expected as per your previous comments.

It's not that I don't like the buybacks at this price. I'm just surprised they haven't used their cash earlier this year to take advantage of the opportunities that were there and I'd be curious to get your opinion on that.

thanks in advance

Eric

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #825 on: October 10, 2012, 12:39:10 PM »
Dazel -

I'm surprised Altius hasn't used the steep correction in the Canadian resource sector this spring/early summer to take new positions and make its cash work. I think that's also something you expected as per your previous comments.

It's not that I don't like the buybacks at this price. I'm just surprised they haven't used their cash earlier this year to take advantage of the opportunities that were there and I'd be curious to get your opinion on that.

thanks in advance

Eric

I'm surprised too, especially after the "bring on the bloodbath" interview many months ago.

Green King

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #826 on: October 10, 2012, 03:02:01 PM »
maybe its happening and we just don't see it.
The reason most of us got in is because of the good management right ?
GK

ItsAValueTrap

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #827 on: October 10, 2012, 03:07:50 PM »
Maybe it's because they are smart and are waiting around for the fat pitch.

Yes the share prices of juniors have gone down but they were coming down from levels of overvaluation.
"It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price. " -Buffett

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ItsAValueTrap

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #828 on: October 10, 2012, 03:50:36 PM »
Look at how Altius has made money in the past.  It wasn't from investing in juniors.  It was from:

A- Buying royalties instead of equity.  Look at all the people who have made personal fortunes in mining.  Teck is one of the rare cases where somebody (Norman Keevil) made a fortune from from equity.  Whereas Lassonde, Schulich, and Dalton made a lot of money from royalties.  The problem with equity is that the equityholders in mines regularly do dumb things.  They chase projects with low rates of returns (e.g. practically the entire gold industry), engage in empire building, have to compete with the publicly-traded miners who bid against you on acquisitions, etc.  And the junior explorers (in aggregate) are huge destroyers of capital.

B- Staking land *when it was cheap*.  That's why Altius is saying "bring on the bloodbath".  It's because they have this huge stash of cash and they want to buy land when it is cheap.  Land may not be cheap right now.  Dalton was visiting China probably because he was trying to "sell" Altius' iron ore land positions through joint venture deals (these JV deals are a subtle form of selling).
This is a business where Altius cannot deploy a lot of capital but has generated obscene returns.

C- Selling shares when they were expensive, buying them back when they were cheap.

And look at what Altius has NOT done.  They have largely avoided the business of exploration (exploration stocks have negative ROI in aggregate).  They have largely avoided the business of developing, building, and owning mines.  That's smart in my opinion as those aren't great businesses.
« Last Edit: October 10, 2012, 03:54:22 PM by ItsAValueTrap »
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Green King

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Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Reply #829 on: October 10, 2012, 03:53:33 PM »
Look at how Altius has made money in the past.  It wasn't from investing in juniors.  It was from:

A- Buying royalties instead of equity.  Look at all the people who have made personal fortunes in mining.  Teck is one of the rare cases where somebody (Norman Keevil) made a fortune from from equity.  Whereas Lassonde, Schulich, and Dalton made a lot of money from royalties.  The problem with equity is that the equityholders in mines regularly do dumb things.  They chase projects with low rates of returns (e.g. practically the entire gold industry), engage in empire building, have to compete with the publicly-traded miners who bid against you on acquisitions, etc.  And the junior explorers (in aggregate) are huge destroyers of capital.

B- Staking land *when it was cheap*.  That's why Altius is saying "bring on the bloodbath".  It's because they have this huge stash of cash and they want to buy land when it is cheap.  Land may not be cheap right now.  Dalton was visiting China probably because he was trying to "sell" Altius' iron ore land positions through joint venture deals (these JV deals are a subtle form of selling).
This is a business where Altius cannot deploy a lot of capital but has generated obscene returns.

C- Selling shares when they were expensive, buying them back when they were cheap.
+1
GK