ALS.TO - Altius Minerals

[Dazel]

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/commodities-super-cycle-not-ending-151801007.html;_ylt=Asrw9h6WY32S.P1257huz2.iuYdG;_ylu=X3oDMTN1OTExYzhrBG1pdANGaW5hbmNlIEZQIE1lZ2F0cm9uIDIEcGtnAzA1MTViMDIzLTk0YzgtMzhmYS1iZTAzLTkyNjE3ODZlNzhlZARwb3MDMQRzZWMDbWVnYXRyb24EdmVyAzg1ODBiOTMzLTNmOWMtMTFlMi1iYmY1LTQ2MzQxZjdiZDQyYg--;_ylg=X3oDMTFpNzk0NjhtBGludGwDdXMEbGFuZwNlbi11cwRwc3RhaWQDBHBzdGNhdANob21lBHB0A3NlY3Rpb25z;_ylv=3

Goldman says super cycle not ending.

Jeremy Grantham


Jim Rogers

Leucadia

What are the odds that they are all wrong?

Dazel.

[biaggio]

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/commodities-super-cycle-not-ending-151801007.html;_ylt=Asrw9h6WY32S.P1257huz2.iuYdG;_ylu=X3oDMTN1OTExYzhrBG1pdANGaW5hbmNlIEZQIE1lZ2F0cm9uIDIEcGtnAzA1MTViMDIzLTk0YzgtMzhmYS1iZTAzLTkyNjE3ODZlNzhlZARwb3MDMQRzZWMDbWVnYXRyb24EdmVyAzg1ODBiOTMzLTNmOWMtMTFlMi1iYmY1LTQ2MzQxZjdiZDQyYg--;_ylg=X3oDMTFpNzk0NjhtBGludGwDdXMEbGFuZwNlbi11cwRwc3RhaWQDBHBzdGNhdANob21lBHB0A3NlY3Rpb25z;_ylv=3

Goldman says super cycle not ending.

Jeremy Grantham


Jim Rogers

Leucadia

What are the odds that they are all wrong?

Dazel.

Of course there is always a chance they could be wrong. In the long run I think they will eventually be right because it makes sense to me. What seems uncertain is the timing.

Its tough for me to make money in commodities- I have to keep reminding myself that this situation (project generator/merchant bank, royalty company, great balance sheet, owner operators) is different than buying the usual mining company

Its comforting that these guys agree as they are way smarter than me.

Thanks for your continued good posts.

Best of luck to all on the board.

[Dazel]

http://www.metalbulletin.com/Article/3128369/Iron-ore-and-coking-coal/Spot-635-Fe-iron-ore-prices-up-by-4-this-week.html

[Dazel]

http://www.metalbulletin.com/Article/3128953/Iron-ore-and-coking-coal/Chinas-November-iron-ore-imports-are-the-second-highest-in-history.html


The reality of some of the numbers coming out of China are a lot different than the ones that are making headlines with regards to their appetite for commodities.

Iron or spot price today is $125.

Dazel.

[Dazel]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/12/08/us-cnooc-nexen-idUSBRE8B619M20121208?feedType=RSS&feedName=innovationNews&rpc=43

Canada's approval of the Nexen deal will be positive for the Hebei transaction. Hebei being a state owned enterprise was waiting to see if the Canadian government would approve the deal. I would expect that you will see the feasability study and more importantly the beginning of the financing flow through to Alderon.

In fact this deal for Altius is extremely positive as they are involved with SOE throughout the Labrador trough....the development of the area...will need capital from china...

When you look at the longterm outlook...the new port, Muskrat falls and a possible railway from CN are the infrastructure pieces needed for a longterm strategy...they will bring down costs of production and make the trough a world class asset. All the pieces are coming together and this deal opens the door to a green light from the Canadian government on SOE's in Canada.

Dazel.

[gfp]

"this deal opens the door to a green light from the Canadian government on SOE's in Canada."

I thought it was just the opposite.  Going forward it would be less likely that an SOE could gain approval to buy out Alderon in it's entirety.  Which is a net negative for Altius - right?

[matts]

I agree, the Nexen decision is a negative for Alderon, not a positive. The Government made it very clear that they would be coming out with new rules that would be more stringent than the previous ones (which were used for Nexen and Progress).

[Dazel]

These were attached to oil sands investments...china now controls 10% of the oil sands...the new rules will reflect this. other investments
will be done on a case by case investment. Alderon is hardly a national security issue...The chinese governemnt were very happy with the approval. They (China) also approved the Viterra deal the same day as Nexen was announced. That looks like a good government relationship and hardly would have Hebei or Wisco or any other "SOB" thinking Canada is not a good place to do business. The iron ore business in Canada is exremely small with foriegn companies already owning the majority of the assets...Rio Tinto, mitsubushi, Cliffs Natural, Arecellor Mitel,Tata steel etc..now Posco...

These are very different rules than the oil industry...

Dazel.

[Dazel]

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/12/07/nexen-progress-canada-oil-sands-state-owned-firms/


In order for this deal to be approved the United States will have to sign off on it. We know as Canadians..our large oil assets are pretty much
controlled by our big brother to the south of us...These new rules simply state the obvious...oil, water, Potash, banks...are of national security issues to both the Canada and the United States.

The fact this deal was approved is very good for Canada and China relations and hence Altius.

Dazel.

[biaggio]

I don t know that china buying out Alderon in its entirety is that important for us shareholders.

Canadian government and us shareholders want to sell + export iron, the more the better.

I am going to vote that the Nexen deal helps- my vote is biased though.