Author Topic: AMBC - Ambac Assurance Corp  (Read 27500 times)

muscleman

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Re: AMBC - Ambac Assurance Corp
« Reply #20 on: August 11, 2013, 04:58:29 PM »
Is anyone familiar with the preferred? I wonder if they are a more attractive investment than the common.

http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/ALSC/news?id=61645

ALSC claims that Ambac wrongfully forced conversion of Auction Rate securities to AMBAC preferred, now trading at .21 to .375 of face value.

"Alliance plans to continue its participation in the lawsuit against AMBAC Assurance Corporation alleging that AMBAC Assurance wrongfully converted the original securities purchased by ALSC into AMBAC preferred shares."

I can't find the symbol for it. From the form 25, it looks like the old common stock and two kinds of debts are canceled, and a new common stock is issued, but I didn't find any info about preferred.
It seems like the new AMBAC has common and warrants though.
http://ir.ambac.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=761498
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BargainValueHunter

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Re: AMBC - Ambac Assurance Corp
« Reply #21 on: October 09, 2013, 04:25:40 PM »
The 2023 warrants were crushed today.

Is Puerto Rico going to be the death of Ambac or a "2011 BAC" style opportunity?
Albert Einstein called compound interest "the greatest mathematical discovery of all time".

BargainValueHunter

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Re: AMBC - Ambac Assurance Corp
« Reply #22 on: October 09, 2013, 04:33:10 PM »
To add...

http://www.bondbuyer.com/issues/122_168/optimistic-insurers-on-hook-for-16-billion-dollars-in-puerto-rico-1055101-1.html

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Ambac has a total of $2.53 billion of net par value of outstanding exposure to Puerto Rico debt, according to data from company filings. The biggest part of that, $805 million, is in Puerto Rico Sales Tax Financing Corporation. COFINA sales tax-backed bonds are some of the territory's highest-rated debt, with AA-minus scores from Fitch and S&P.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ambac-reports-profit-out-of-bankruptcy-protection-2013-08-14-948545

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For the two-month period from May 1 to June 30, the newly emerged company reported a profit of $205.7 million, or $4.42 a share, on total revenue of $242.8 million. The predecessor company posted a loss of $811.1 million, or $2.68 a share, with total revenue being negative $6 million during the second quarter a year ago.

The latest two-month period had only $36.6 million in total expenses before reorganization items and no debt-extinguishment related losses, while the predecessor company's results were weighed down by losses in derivate products and net realized losses on extinguishment of debt, as well as $806.8 million in total expenses before reorganization items.
Albert Einstein called compound interest "the greatest mathematical discovery of all time".

BargainValueHunter

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Re: AMBC - Ambac Assurance Corp
« Reply #23 on: October 11, 2013, 05:52:53 PM »
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20131010-711139.html

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Of the company's exposure to Puerto Rico debt, about 90% is revenue debt--including revenue pledges from toll receipts, and sales, gas, rum, and hotel-occupancy taxes.

Ambac's largest exposure is to sales-tax revenue bonds totaling $808 million and issued by the Puerto Rico Sales Tax Financing Corp. Those bonds are safer than other debt issued by Puerto Rico, as the government isn't allowed to tap the agency's sales taxes to pay other obligations.

Other exposure listed by Ambac, including the rum and hotel-occupancy tax revenue bonds, are subject to claw back under Puerto Rico's constitution.

Ambac also said about 10% of the total Puerto Rico debt it insures is commonwealth general obligation-backed debt.
« Last Edit: October 11, 2013, 05:54:53 PM by BargainValueHunter »
Albert Einstein called compound interest "the greatest mathematical discovery of all time".

muscleman

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Re: AMBC - Ambac Assurance Corp
« Reply #24 on: October 11, 2013, 08:49:24 PM »
To add...

http://www.bondbuyer.com/issues/122_168/optimistic-insurers-on-hook-for-16-billion-dollars-in-puerto-rico-1055101-1.html

Quote
Ambac has a total of $2.53 billion of net par value of outstanding exposure to Puerto Rico debt, according to data from company filings. The biggest part of that, $805 million, is in Puerto Rico Sales Tax Financing Corporation. COFINA sales tax-backed bonds are some of the territory's highest-rated debt, with AA-minus scores from Fitch and S&P.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ambac-reports-profit-out-of-bankruptcy-protection-2013-08-14-948545

Quote
For the two-month period from May 1 to June 30, the newly emerged company reported a profit of $205.7 million, or $4.42 a share, on total revenue of $242.8 million. The predecessor company posted a loss of $811.1 million, or $2.68 a share, with total revenue being negative $6 million during the second quarter a year ago.

The latest two-month period had only $36.6 million in total expenses before reorganization items and no debt-extinguishment related losses, while the predecessor company's results were weighed down by losses in derivate products and net realized losses on extinguishment of debt, as well as $806.8 million in total expenses before reorganization items.

But what is the adjusted book value for AMBC? Isn't it only 400 Million? If this is trading at 2x adjusted book value, that is not cheap.
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BargainValueHunter

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Re: AMBC - Ambac Assurance Corp
« Reply #25 on: October 24, 2013, 12:03:59 PM »
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-24/wisconsin-appeals-court-upholds-ambac-account-rehab-plan-1-.html?cmpid=yhoo

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Under the plan approved by Johnston after a five-day evidentiary hearing in November 2010 and upheld today, holders of claims associated with that account will be paid 25 percent of those claims in cash and the remainder in surplus notes that mature in 2020.

“Some time before the maturity date, the commissioner will assess the need to modify that date to allow for the continuation or reissuance of surplus notes after 2020,” according to the appellate ruling. “It is projected that the surplus notes may not be paid until 2050, if not later.”
« Last Edit: October 24, 2013, 12:05:53 PM by BargainValueHunter »
Albert Einstein called compound interest "the greatest mathematical discovery of all time".

yitech

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Re: AMBC - Ambac Assurance Corp
« Reply #26 on: December 23, 2013, 06:35:05 PM »
Ambac: Where a Smaller Portfolio Means a Bigger Stock Price

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424053111904009804579248341848300868.html

"What's intriguing about this little-followed stock is that improving markets and Ambac's own initiatives give it a good shot at paying the insurance claims against it with much less than the $6.6 billion that it's set aside for that purpose. BTIG analyst Mark Palmer estimates that Ambac can settle the claims for about $5 billion. The remaining $1.6 billion would be a lot of found money for a firm with a market valuation of just $1.1 billion. The shares traded last week at $21, and the handful of analysts who cover the company believe they could be worth about 50% more within a year and substantially more in two or three years."

"Although the insurer won't detail its activities (it declined to speak with Barron's), it's said to have been savvy about buying Ambac-insured bonds in the open market at deep discounts, thereby removing potential insurance payouts and acquiring an asset that could appreciate. Last quarter, for instance, it purchased $360 million of mainly student-loan-related credits for $65 million. Ambac's overall $189 billion portfolio has dropped 41% from $319 billion at year-end 2010. We estimate that it will be reducing its portfolio at an annual rate of $45.2 billion by year-end 2013."

"Ambac has two big suits: one against JPMorgan Chase (JPM) for $1.1 billion in claims and another against Bank of America (BAC) for $1.2 billion. A 70% recovery would mean $1.6 billion for Ambac."

"Be warned: Ambac is a speculative play that will require time to play out. Recently, it was disclosed that it guarantees $2.5 billion worth of debt issues from Puerto Rico, where many credits are shaky. The news pushed the shares, now around $21, down to $16, before they recovered. But 90% of Ambac's Puerto Rico obligations are considered less risky than other securities from that U.S. commonwealth because they're backed by specific revenues from tolls, sales taxes, and levies on gas, rum, and hotel occupancy."

BargainValueHunter

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Re: AMBC - Ambac Assurance Corp
« Reply #27 on: March 02, 2014, 01:04:05 PM »
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/03/02/bank-of-america-returns-to-a-familiar-battlefield.aspx

Quote
The bank's recent 10-K filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, however, shows that the legal fracas over toxic mortgages pumped out by Countrywide in years past hasn't died down just yet. Ambac Financial (Nasdaq: AMBC), recently emerged from bankruptcy, is looking for more than $2.5 billion from B of A for damages related to junk loans underlying disintegrating mortgage bonds.

Ambac, which insured these mortgages, has been paying out on these loans – and it wants its money back, not only for what it has already forked over, but also for "future claims it has paid or claims it will be obligated to pay under the policies, increasing over time as it pays claims under relevant policies, plus unspecified punitive damages."

Echoes of MBIA
This situation stirs up memories of the infamous Bank of America-MBIA (NYSE: MBI) fight, which dragged on for years with the two engaging in a series of skirmishes that bordered on the bizarre. Finally, B of A and the struggling monoline insurer settled last May, for $1.7 billion – a welcome and much-needed infusion of cash for MBIA, which was tottering on the brink of extinction.

Albert Einstein called compound interest "the greatest mathematical discovery of all time".

yitech

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Re: AMBC - Ambac Assurance Corp
« Reply #28 on: March 02, 2014, 05:36:48 PM »
A very well-written thesis from an author on VIC: https://www.dropbox.com/s/mho58qsecajjf9f/AMBC_Long_Pitch_VIC.pdf

SYCRF and AMBC are now two of my largest positions. Now that PR and Detroit are settling down, bond insurers no longer trade as derivatives on PR and Detroit news events. There is still a lot of upside from here.

constructive

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Re: AMBC - Ambac Assurance Corp
« Reply #29 on: March 02, 2014, 06:16:27 PM »
A very well-written thesis from an author on VIC: https://www.dropbox.com/s/mho58qsecajjf9f/AMBC_Long_Pitch_VIC.pdf

SYCRF and AMBC are now two of my largest positions. Now that PR and Detroit are settling down, bond insurers no longer trade as derivatives on PR and Detroit news events. There is still a lot of upside from here.

PR and Detroit have quieted down but are unresolved issues and will return.

So Syncora's current book value is $1035 net assets - $61 liabilities - $200 preferred - $584 surplus notes = $190M? The latest news certainly seems promising.