Author Topic: AMC - AMC Entertainment Holdings  (Read 36077 times)

5xEBITDA

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Re: AMC - AMC Entertainment Holdings
« Reply #160 on: April 29, 2020, 09:44:40 AM »
Lots of interesting developments for sure...it is interesting to see the price action of the stock vs. the debt. Term loan is still mid-70s, the new 1L bond has dropped to 89 since issue, and the subordinate bonds are all still 20-25. From my high level, not super focused observations of the new issue market, I think the AMC bond is one of, if not the, worst performing new issue to-date. Although with a market cap of ~$550 million underneath all of this debt, the option value of the equity is going to swing wildly with good or bad news.


roark33

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Re: AMC - AMC Entertainment Holdings
« Reply #161 on: May 01, 2020, 02:53:00 PM »
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1411579/000119312520131021/d902788dsc13d.htm

Not totally sure what to make of the timing of this filing.  Silverlake is really underwater on the convert price...odd timing.

roark33

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Re: AMC - AMC Entertainment Holdings
« Reply #162 on: May 01, 2020, 05:44:37 PM »
The more I look at this, I think Silverlake forgot to file this when AMC told them they were going to pay their convert in shares back in 2019, and now Silverlake was going over their docs and realized it, hence the filing.  Any other ideas? 

txvalue

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Re: AMC - AMC Entertainment Holdings
« Reply #163 on: May 11, 2020, 06:24:12 AM »
Amazon rumored to be kicking the tires on a buyout here.

Edit: This was predictably bs and appears to have been about Amazon looking at AMC networks and the paper didnít catch it.

In other exhibition news Cinepolis and members of the controlling family have taken a 8.1% stake in Cinemark per filings. Cinemark sold their Mexican market operations to Cinemex in 2013. Cinemex recently filed Ch. 11 for their US subsidiary. Anyone have any insight into Cinepolis? I havenít spent much time on the international circuits.
« Last Edit: May 20, 2020, 07:35:24 PM by txvalue »

MVP444300

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Re: AMC - AMC Entertainment Holdings
« Reply #164 on: June 03, 2020, 11:19:18 AM »
https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/03/media/amc-theatres-business-coronavirus/index.html

AMC Theatres, the world's biggest movie theater chain, said on Wednesday that it has "substantial doubt" it can remain in business after closing locations across the globe during the coronavirus pandemic.

Foreign Tuffett

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Re: AMC - AMC Entertainment Holdings
« Reply #165 on: June 10, 2020, 01:40:08 PM »
Just skimmed the call transcript.

Management says they are burning slightly less than $100 million a month while theaters are shut down. They anticipate having "essentially" all locations open by the time "Tenet" releases, which is currently scheduled for July 17th.

$300 million of cash at end of Q1. Let's call that zero since they will burn it all by the end of Q2. Putting aside whatever financing moves they are making, they are looking at $5.1 or $5.2 billion of net debt and finance lease obligations at the end of Q2. That is just a tremendous amount of debt. As previously discussed in this thread, they were already struggling with the debt load prior to COVID.

Stock closed today at $6.29. Maybe I am just an old grump, but looking strictly at the fundamentals I have no idea why anyone would want to be long this at the current price. Massive industry uncertainty. Questionable management. Going concern warning. No-growth industry. Studios may be moving away from theatrical distribution somewhat. So on and so forth

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JRM

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Re: AMC - AMC Entertainment Holdings
« Reply #166 on: June 10, 2020, 03:53:01 PM »
AMC is popular in the Sherwood Forrest. 

Gregmal

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Re: AMC - AMC Entertainment Holdings
« Reply #167 on: June 10, 2020, 04:08:10 PM »
9% a month to short. Rule of thumb, whenever you have a triple digit borrow cost, lower prices are almost a guarantee. Expressing a short here is tough though. Selling ITM calls maybe.

roark33

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Re: AMC - AMC Entertainment Holdings
« Reply #168 on: June 12, 2020, 10:07:41 AM »
If you sell ITM calls, with this high of borrow costs, they will most likely get assigned to you as a short position. 


Foreign Tuffett

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Re: AMC - AMC Entertainment Holdings
« Reply #169 on: June 12, 2020, 05:12:24 PM »
Just skimmed the call transcript.

Management says they are burning slightly less than $100 million a month while theaters are shut down. They anticipate having "essentially" all locations open by the time "Tenet" releases, which is currently scheduled for July 17th.

$300 million of cash at end of Q1. Let's call that zero since they will burn it all by the end of Q2. Putting aside whatever financing moves they are making, they are looking at $5.1 or $5.2 billion of net debt and finance lease obligations at the end of Q2. That is just a tremendous amount of debt. As previously discussed in this thread, they were already struggling with the debt load prior to COVID.

Stock closed today at $6.29. Maybe I am just an old grump, but looking strictly at the fundamentals I have no idea why anyone would want to be long this at the current price. Massive industry uncertainty. Questionable management. Going concern warning. No-growth industry. Studios may be moving away from theatrical distribution somewhat. So on and so forth

"Tenet" release pushed back to July 31st
Former Teldar Paper Vice President