Author Topic: AMC - AMC Entertainment Holdings  (Read 36069 times)

txvalue

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Re: AMC - AMC Entertainment Holdings
« Reply #180 on: July 29, 2020, 06:53:19 AM »
Anyone have thoughts on the deal w/ Comcast Universal to shrink the window to 17 days before PVOD in certain cases?

Details are scant so it is hard to tell how it will play out and what the deal will mean for other studios and exhibitors. The general industry feedback seems to be that it was an unforced error on AMC's side. Anyone have color on what the PVOD splits might look like? I could see this being not a big deal if it just applies to smaller titles or films that underperform but I wasn't expecting the window to get this compressed this quickly.

https://deadline.com/2020/07/universal-amc-theatres-theatrical-window-crush-pvod-agreement-1202997573/


5xEBITDA

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Re: AMC - AMC Entertainment Holdings
« Reply #181 on: July 29, 2020, 06:56:31 AM »
I like to daydream that Universal was like "we own $50 million of your bonds, agree to the window reduction or you don't get your stupid exchange done"

Foreign Tuffett

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Re: AMC - AMC Entertainment Holdings
« Reply #182 on: August 03, 2020, 01:06:15 PM »
Baupost/Klarman with some thoughts that are similar to what was being posted in this thread back in June:

"Movie theater chain AMC provides a fascinating illustration of the equity market’s
optimism in the face of extremely adverse business conditions. With all its U.S. theatres closed,
the company reported on June 3rd that “substantial doubt exists about our ability to continue as a
going concern for a reasonable period of time.” Nevertheless, soon after this filing, shares of AMC
actually traded above their early-February level. By contrast, over this same time period, AMC’s
subordinated bonds reflected a much harsher reality, trading down from 90 to 30 cents on the
dollar.
"

https://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/baupost-q4-2017-letter/30/
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roark33

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Re: AMC - AMC Entertainment Holdings
« Reply #183 on: August 03, 2020, 04:15:13 PM »
To be fair, the unsecured have really gotten screwed in this process because the covenants were so "lite" that AMC has been able to add new debt ahead of them in the capital structure.  The debt markets have been fairly friendly to AMC throughout this process--and that is the reason the equity has retained some value, and even increased as the equity has realized that the runway is longer than initially expected. 

JRM

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Re: AMC - AMC Entertainment Holdings
« Reply #184 on: August 13, 2020, 08:04:07 AM »
So AMC announces they're going to open 100 theaters with capacity restrictions in place and the stock is up 15%?  They were struggling before COVID-19, no good movies will be released this year, they are giving up their release window, and it likely will cost MORE to operate these theaters at reduced capacity then to keep them shut down.  What is going on here?

Foreign Tuffett

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Re: AMC - AMC Entertainment Holdings
« Reply #185 on: August 13, 2020, 11:24:15 AM »
So AMC announces they're going to open 100 theaters with capacity restrictions in place and the stock is up 15%?  They were struggling before COVID-19, no good movies will be released this year, they are giving up their release window, and it likely will cost MORE to operate these theaters at reduced capacity then to keep them shut down.  What is going on here?

I actually thought the worst part of the release was this: "AMC currently expects to open approximately two thirds of its more than 600 U.S. theatre locations in time for the September 3 release of Warner Bros.’ TENET"

This is a biz with middling economics when ALL of the locations are open. Having only 2/3rds of the US locations open just isn't going to cut it. But hey, I guess they have to start somewhere.

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Foreign Tuffett

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Re: AMC - AMC Entertainment Holdings
« Reply #186 on: September 15, 2020, 12:08:57 PM »
To make a long story short, Tenet has done poorly at the domestic box office so studios are postponing basically every major upcoming movie. We probably won't see another big release until the second half of November.

https://www.theatlantic.com/culture/archive/2020/09/hollywoods-tenet-experiment-didnt-work/616345/


https://variety.com/2020/film/news/black-widow-release-date-delay-soul-disney-plus-1234769426/

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txvalue

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Re: AMC - AMC Entertainment Holdings
« Reply #187 on: September 15, 2020, 12:56:10 PM »
To add to FT's comment it is going to make things tough for the American circuits. Many were getting favorable treatment from landlords but now with these big releases pushing back circuits are going to have to make another decision - to stay open with no product or to shutter things again until the end of the year. Many other smaller operators are likely to close up shop.

I like Cineplex and Cinemark here, but Cineworld and AMC continue to be in hot water. AMC did get a fairly nice break from EPR so their liquidity is probably ok.

AMC finally started selling some assets dumping their Baltic region cinemas for 77 million in August, but they are also looking to modify a court order so they can reacquire some theaters they had to let go in the Carmike deal (the owners defaulted in July). Where there is an unnecessary acquisition to be had you can bet Aron will be nearby.
« Last Edit: September 15, 2020, 01:07:06 PM by txvalue »