AMCN - AirMedia Group

[king888]

My article on Seeking Alpha
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1951701

[yadayada]

looks like their core business sucks. Revenue in decline in 2013. And still making a loss. Can you expand on the inflight internet business? Looks like all the upside is there. When will that happen, and why are they going to make money with it.

[king888]

I don't think core business is that bad. It has a small losses if you exclude the goodwill write-off.
And part of revenue decline is because of VAT included in top line before 2012.

I think just 10% revenue growth , this company can turn profitable because most of expenses are fixed-cost

[yadayada]

I don't think core business is that bad. It has a small losses if you exclude the goodwill write-off.
And part of revenue decline is because of VAT included in top line before 2012.

I think just 10% revenue growth , this company can turn profitable because most of expenses are fixed-cost

yeah but revenue declined in 2013. So the trend there is sort of worrying. And if they are going to invest the cash, your banking on that inflight internet business really.

[king888]

I don't think core business is that bad. It has a small losses if you exclude the goodwill write-off.
And part of revenue decline is because of VAT included in top line before 2012.

I think just 10% revenue growth , this company can turn profitable because most of expenses are fixed-cost

yeah but revenue declined in 2013. So the trend there is sort of worrying. And if they are going to invest the cash, your banking on that inflight internet business really.

The revenue decline in 2013(9 Month) was just 5% . And it was partially due to replacement of VAT in Beijing. In 2012 and earlier ,the revenue were also included VAT (7%, if I remember correctly)   

[Voodooking]

I'm looking to take a small position in the stock as a Merger Risk Arbitrage play.

The most helpful articles I can find on the subject are as follows:

http://en.prnasia.com/story/166631-0.shtml

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4004170-airmedia-group-going-private-deal-hits-road-block

Stock is currently trading at $2.67 and the acquirer has offered a cash bid of $6.00 for each share. If the merger goes through, I could stand to make a profit of around 125% on my investment.

However, the merger has dragged on for a very long time, and there are no guarantees that it will go through... In looking at the downside, by my calculations, although the company is making a loss, it is only trading at 2 x NCAV. My thinking is that even if the shares take 100% loss, and the company goes into liquidation, I should only lose approx. 50% of my initial investment after the assets are sold during liquidation.

Are there any major points I've missed here? Does anyone else have a position in it? It seems like a very high upside to compensate for the risk it might break.

[writser]

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/airmedia-enters-into-amendment-no-3-to-merger-agreement-for-going-private-transaction-300480978.html

Assholes. New bid 50% lower. Initial "definitive merger agreement" was filed almost two years ago. I'd stay away from this.