AMZN - Amazon.com Inc.

[D33pV4lue]

Media space is a growing expanding pie. Not zero sum game I think. In that space Netflix, Disney+ and Prime will be the winners. The rest won’t matter.

I think it is WAY to earlier to start declaring winners of the streaming wars. I think Disney + will do well because it serves a niche that may be overlooked by other players. Personally I hate Prime Video. Do I use it? Yes, but I hate how in between videos I can watch they throw in rent or buy options or shows on HBO and other sites that I need to sign up for. The User Interface is clunky and its suggestion algo IMO is terrible. That being said if you have a movie in mind that you want to rent/buy Amazon is awesome. I've been slowly building my collection of movies. Netflix is great but what is going to happen when competition for shows heats up. Streaming could become commoditized switching between Netflix, Hulu, Apple TV, and HBO depending on which shows are out and that is what scares me the most about all of these platforms.

[valueinvestor]

Amazon future is to continue to get ad revenues and monetize its massive customer base. That is the third pillar behind e commerce and clouds. Somewhere in the future is their for-rent Cashless Go technology and whatever else they are cooking.

Folks often talk about Alphabet being the Berkshire of technology. I think that is Amazon. Not Alphabet and definitely not SoftBank.

+1

[Xerxes]

Media space is a growing expanding pie. Not zero sum game I think. In that space Netflix, Disney+ and Prime will be the winners. The rest won’t matter.

I think it is WAY to earlier to start declaring winners of the streaming wars.

Agreed on WAY to early part, but i just don't see it as a "streaming wars" as everybody else like to call it, to me that implies a zero-sum game, which is not.
In my view, the three that i mentioned (and specifically D+ + Netflix) would just expand faster than the rest of them as the market naturally expands from linear TV to digital.

On Amazon's side, Prime TV is just there to add stickiness to the Amazon flywheel. There is a lot of marketing lesson in not confusing the customer with different pricing structures, and types of membership. i believe Amazon will do its best to stick to one pricing structure for Prime. but i could be wrong.

[D33pV4lue]

I don't think the end will be zero sum, but the road there will be rocky. You are right in that Prime video for amazon is more of an additional benefit than anything else, but I'm sure they are not complacent about Prime Video. Between Disney +, Netflix, HBO, Showtime, Apple TV, Youtube TV, Hulu, and Prime they are all going to be competing to get the top shows/movies. Traditional media companies are going to want their movies/shows on their own platform, not Netflix and there will be intense competition until the herd is shaken out. IDK maybe I'm too pessimistic I just don't see enough room for them all.

[Liberty]

Q2: https://ir.aboutamazon.com/files/doc_financials/2020/q2/Q2-2020-Amazon-Earnings-Release.pdf

Operating cash flow increased 42% to $51.2 billion for the trailing twelve months, compared with $36.0 billion for
the trailing twelve months ended June 30, 2019.
• Free cash flow increased to $31.9 billion for the trailing twelve months, compared with $25.0 billion for the trailing
twelve months ended June 30, 2019.
• Free cash flow less principal repayments of finance leases and financing obligations increased to $21.3 billion for
the trailing twelve months, compared with $16.1 billion for the trailing twelve months ended June 30, 2019.
• Free cash flow less equipment finance leases and principal repayments of all other finance leases and financing
obligations increased to $19.4 billion for the trailing twelve months, compared with $13.0 billion for the trailing
twelve months ended June 30, 2019.
• Common shares outstanding plus shares underlying stock-based awards totaled 517 million on June 30, 2020,
compared with 510 million one year ago.
• Net sales increased 40% to $88.9 billion in the second quarter, compared with $63.4 billion in second quarter 2019.
Excluding the $582 million unfavorable impact from year-over-year changes in foreign exchange rates throughout the
quarter, net sales increased 41% compared with second quarter 2019.
• Operating income increased to $5.8 billion in the second quarter, compared with operating income of $3.1 billion in
second quarter 2019.
• Net income increased to $5.2 billion in the second quarter, or $10.30 per diluted share, compared with net income of
$2.6 billion, or $5.22 per diluted share, in second quarter 2019.

[Liberty]

Deliveroo approval:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/amazon-finally-wins-approval-from-regulator-to-gobble-up-minority-stake-in-deliveroo-11596565315

Launching in Sweden:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-amazon-com-sweden-idUSKCN2501OA

[Spekulatius]

Just an update:

A few of the amazon orders I didn’t cancel from early April were just delivered. Amazon said they’d be delivered by the end of April. Also, I ordered a few things 2-3 days ago and they arrived today. All painting/plumbing supply type stuff for my company. Not really essential products.  Anyways, amazon seems to have gotten a hold on its back log of orders.

Yes, mentioned likewise above. I don’t let long lead times discourage me any more since most things are coming much faster. It’s a godsend to have prime now, since it saves so many trips.. They probably should advertise:

“America runs on Amazon Prime now!” And it would be somewhat true.

It’s one of those stocks where intrinsic value has increased while a lot of their competition is on the ropes.

Anecdotally, Amazon seems to have solved their delivery bottleneck issues, at least in my area. I have ordered various items recently and they are all delivered very fast - within 1-2 days. Also, the driver now seem to always send a pic of the package when they deliver. Before that was more hit and miss.

FWIW, we were outside of the 1 day deliver zone (due to our somewhat rural location ) but it seems like we are now borderline in.

[Morgan]

Just an update:

A few of the amazon orders I didn’t cancel from early April were just delivered. Amazon said they’d be delivered by the end of April. Also, I ordered a few things 2-3 days ago and they arrived today. All painting/plumbing supply type stuff for my company. Not really essential products.  Anyways, amazon seems to have gotten a hold on its back log of orders.

Yes, mentioned likewise above. I don’t let long lead times discourage me any more since most things are coming much faster. It’s a godsend to have prime now, since it saves so many trips.. They probably should advertise:

“America runs on Amazon Prime now!” And it would be somewhat true.

It’s one of those stocks where intrinsic value has increased while a lot of their competition is on the ropes.

Anecdotally, Amazon seems to have solved their delivery bottleneck issues, at least in my area. I have ordered various items recently and they are all delivered very fast - within 1-2 days. Also, the driver now seem to always send a pic of the package when they deliver. Before that was more hit and miss.

FWIW, we were outside of the 1 day deliver zone (due to our somewhat rural location ) but it seems like we are now borderline in.

Hmm. I’ve been having longer wait times for some of my items. Some things come quickly, but probably half of my orders take 3-10 days. I’m ordering weird things though (parts for appliances, tools, buildings supplies, etc). Maybe that makes a difference?

One thing that’s very annoying is so many things are labeled prime, but have 3-10 day delivery times. What the heck is this?! Why pay for prime if it’s just slow shipping for free?

[Liberty]

They still prioritize essential goods, I think, so yes, other things may still be slower in some places.

[Liberty]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-amazon-com-rackspace-tech-exclusive/exclusive-amazon-in-talks-to-invest-in-cloud-services-company-rackspace-say-sources-idUSKCN25D1Q6

Reuters: "Amazon in talks to invest in cloud services company Rackspace" ("The deal would involve Amazon acquiring a minority stake in Rackspace")