Author Topic: ARKK - Ark Innovation ETF  (Read 4245 times)

JRM

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ARKK - Ark Innovation ETF
« on: May 25, 2019, 10:42:51 AM »
Anybody look at this ETF?  I'm wondering if shorting this would be a good "basket" approach to hedging some of the froth in the market.  Tesla is a 10% position, and I think they are getting a lot of negative attention right now by posting their Tesla spreadsheet to GitHub and videos like this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aSZ__c4y1m4

They are basically regurgitating Elon's fantasies as their Tesla investment thesis.  I'd love to see their analysis on other profitless cash burners in their portfolio.

Here is the list of their current holdings: http://portfolios.morningstar.com/fund/holdings?t=ARKK&region=usa&culture=en-US


Gregmal

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Re: ARKK - Ark Innovation ETF
« Reply #1 on: May 25, 2019, 01:13:59 PM »
Yup. I've traded ARKG at times for exposure to the genomics stuff, but with all of the ARK ETFs, I can't help but think that these were created for the sole purpose of capitalizing on the easiness of marketing a dot com like portfolio during a bull market.

JRM

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Re: ARKK - Ark Innovation ETF
« Reply #2 on: May 25, 2019, 02:11:38 PM »
Near the end of the interview she says "...Tesla can centralize their computing better than competitors."  I think she's throwing big words together to make pretty sounding word salads.  One of my degrees is a B.S. in computer engineering.  I don't think she has any clue what she's talking about.  It sounds like she's taking talking points from other people and regurgitating them.

james22

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Re: ARKK - Ark Innovation ETF
« Reply #3 on: January 12, 2021, 03:25:57 PM »
+125% since late May.

 :o
BRK, BAM, MKL l SV, EM l Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac l Cash

BG2008

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Re: ARKK - Ark Innovation ETF
« Reply #4 on: January 12, 2021, 03:34:50 PM »
Anybody look at this ETF?  I'm wondering if shorting this would be a good "basket" approach to hedging some of the froth in the market.  Tesla is a 10% position, and I think they are getting a lot of negative attention right now by posting their Tesla spreadsheet to GitHub and videos like this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aSZ__c4y1m4

They are basically regurgitating Elon's fantasies as their Tesla investment thesis.  I'd love to see their analysis on other profitless cash burners in their portfolio.

Here is the list of their current holdings: http://portfolios.morningstar.com/fund/holdings?t=ARKK&region=usa&culture=en-US

Honestly, aside from Tesla, the other stuff that she owns actually kind of makes sense.  I have heard of Elliot Turner talk about Roku and he sounded reasonable.  In light of that, it's probably not the worst thing to own as a basket.  The success of the ETF likely leads to these names performing better as it attracts additional capital which creates more demand for shares. 

JRM

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Re: ARKK - Ark Innovation ETF
« Reply #5 on: January 12, 2021, 03:42:07 PM »
+125% since late May.

 :o

I guess I'll stick to my day job.

Read the Footnotes

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Re: ARKK - Ark Innovation ETF
« Reply #6 on: January 12, 2021, 04:04:15 PM »
I looked in to it a bit and almost started a thread on the topic. You may have noticed me making some jokes about them elsewhere on CoB&F.

This is all original thinking on my part, so I'm curious to get feedback.

JRM says "I don't think she has any clue what she's talking about." Well I too have questions. Here are a couple of examples.

She rather famously was a giant Tesla bull and gave interviews where she reassured investors and said it was IMPOSSIBLE for Tesla to go bankrupt. Literally a couple of weeks later Musk came out and said something LIKE "whew, that was a close one, we would have gone bankrupt in a couple of days if we didn't pull a rabbit out of a hat." I think Musk can be extremely optimistic and promotional, so why shouldn't I just take his word over hers on this matter? Sounds like she might not know much about cash burn, repayment schedules, etc.

Then back in the spring, she tweeted some stuff saying basically that COVID-19 was overblown and we should just not worry about it. So not only did that belief not age well, the one source that she used to back up her reasoning was someone with statistics background that wasn't that relevant and he was not a specialist in virology or epidemiology. In addition the resume had all sorts of red flags, which was quickly followed up by his former academic institution listed on his resume putting out a statement saying that he never taught there. At a minimum it seems like someone at ARK doesn't know how to read an academic resume, doesn't know how to read a scientific resume, doesn't know how to read a medical resume, or doesn't know the relevant fields of expertise. Of course, it could be they have no respect for expertise.

I found a bunch of other stuff, but I'll leave it at two examples that made me question whether anyone at the ARK knows finance or science, both of which should be relevant.

My biggest question about ARK is whether or not they are actually operating as a feedback mechanism in two different ways.

First, I am curious if they are either intentionally or subconsciously crowd sourcing their investment decisions rather than using some other basis. What I mean by that is that they are more involved with social media engagement with investors than any other organization I have ever seen. In their case it would be pretty easy to use your own media engagement numbers to understand what your investors like. So ARK could send out some tweets about individual stocks. Then they could look at which tweets stocks their investors engaged with the most and whatever stock that is, THAT is what they buy for the fund.

Second, with their current size, whatever they buy will get driven up in price so could the fund becom a "self-fulfilling double beauty pageant feedback loop"? (just made that term up especially for ARK and I'm kind of proud of it.

The problem I ran in to with going short or buying puts was that I, like BG2008, concluded that there were a few good positions in the fund or at least some positions I didn't think would be fun to bet against.


Two other nuggets just for fun.

1. Check out the video about halfway down the page linked below, but don't just watch it. Watch it two or three times minimum. If you're not laughing by the third time, you're not paying enough attention.
https://ark-invest.com/
2. The pitch marketing pitches are frighteningly well done. A couple of times I found myself watch her in interviews or whatever and thinking wow this sounds really exciting, I should get out my checkbook and then after a couple of seconds of reflection I'm asking myself what the heck was I just listening to? That makes no sense to me. Well done pitches, but not much connection to the earth under my feet in my opinion.
« Last Edit: January 12, 2021, 04:25:29 PM by Read the Footnotes »

JRM

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Re: ARKK - Ark Innovation ETF
« Reply #7 on: January 12, 2021, 04:31:16 PM »
lol

You forgot to mention that they don't hire "traditional" financial analysts with "formal" accounting and finance training so they are not constrained by "fundamental" analysis.

Spekulatius

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Re: ARKK - Ark Innovation ETF
« Reply #8 on: January 12, 2021, 04:36:24 PM »
Boomers had Janus funds and the Millennials have ARKK.
Life is too short for cheap beer and wine.

Pondside47

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Re: ARKK - Ark Innovation ETF
« Reply #9 on: January 12, 2021, 04:44:41 PM »

Two other nuggets just for fun.

1. Check out the video about halfway down the page linked below, but don't just watch it. Watch it two or three times minimum. If you're not laughing by the third time, you're not paying enough attention.
https://ark-invest.com/

you mean when she says the traditional financial world is very siloed and specialized while her firms is focused "only on disruptive innovations" and it seems she's copying Trump's hand gesture?