Author Topic: AT - Atlantic Power Corp  (Read 94959 times)

doc75

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Re: AT - Atlantic Power Corp
« Reply #230 on: December 13, 2020, 09:08:09 AM »
I was looking over Q3 results and noted that Dorchester + Allendale contributed only $1.8m of revenue, substantially down from prior Q's where they provided roughly $6m.    I didn't notice any mention of maintenance downtime or anything, aside from a suggestion in a prior Q that there was some equipment being purchased to provide better fuel flexibility. 

Does anyone have any insight?  Small potatoes but I'm curious.



SafetyinNumbers

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Re: AT - Atlantic Power Corp
« Reply #231 on: January 04, 2021, 03:29:01 PM »
I put it on Twitter but forgot to put it here but RBC added ATP to its Canadian Small Cap Conviction List this morning.

That might have partially helped with the unusually large move and volume near the end of the day.

no_free_lunch

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Re: AT - Atlantic Power Corp
« Reply #232 on: January 04, 2021, 04:16:06 PM »
It seems to have missed the equity rally, so maybe playing catch up?

Is there any concern as to a democratic government in the US and what something like the green new deal would mean?  I understand they have PPA agreements but I think the thesis does require some renewals for there to be upside.

SafetyinNumbers

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Re: AT - Atlantic Power Corp
« Reply #233 on: January 04, 2021, 04:32:15 PM »
It seems to have missed the equity rally, so maybe playing catch up?

Is there any concern as to a democratic government in the US and what something like the green new deal would mean?  I understand they have PPA agreements but I think the thesis does require some renewals for there to be upside.

This was the summary from the note:

Atlantic Power Corporation (TSX:ATP): Management previously indicated that Atlantic Power will have US$20 million of discretionary cash by the end of 2020, allowing them to consider share repurchases. The company repurchased 18% of its common shares in 2020, and absent of M&A opportunities, we estimate that the company can repurchase in excess of 30% of its common shares (at the current share price) if it were to allocate excess cash flows generated over the next two years toward buybacks.

It seems like the push to green is going faster so I think there is some optimism that the company will be able renew the Hydro PPAs at a premium. Especially Curtis Palmer in NY.

Additionally, the commodity rally and potential reduction in Federal land available for oil drilling might help natural gas prices, which would help with PPA renewals as those opportunities come up.

I still think Polaris (PIF) should buy it in a merger of equals. I think it would accelerate the returns for both companies dramatically.

wisowis

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Re: AT - Atlantic Power Corp
« Reply #234 on: January 04, 2021, 04:58:47 PM »
I put it on Twitter but forgot to put it here but RBC added ATP to its Canadian Small Cap Conviction List this morning.

That might have partially helped with the unusually large move and volume near the end of the day.

What is your twitter handle sir?

SafetyinNumbers

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Re: AT - Atlantic Power Corp
« Reply #235 on: January 04, 2021, 05:02:27 PM »
@brownmarubozu

You can also find it by searching $ATTO  ;D

doc75

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Re: AT - Atlantic Power Corp
« Reply #236 on: January 04, 2021, 06:04:07 PM »
It seems to have missed the equity rally, so maybe playing catch up?

Is there any concern as to a democratic government in the US and what something like the green new deal would mean?  I understand they have PPA agreements but I think the thesis does require some renewals for there to be upside.

Moore was asked asked about the upcoming election on the Q3 call.   Worth a read:

Nelson Ng

Okay. My next question is more big picture as well. Given the likely Biden government, just a big picture on what you think the impact is. I guess, we're not sure how much of his climate change policies he can push through, which includes carbon neutrality for the power sector in 2035. Obviously, you have some gas-fired facilities and I guess, one coal facility, but what's your take on that, Jim?

James Moore

Yes. Well, I think 2 areas. One is on taxes. And I think a lot of that will be determined by the Georgia outcome. If it's 50 one way, then I think they'll get some taxes from it. It's more than that, probably not, but I am no better at political prognostication than anybody else. I think the more likely thing to happen and where they don't need the senate is the -- on the power side. I expect Biden will put us back in the Paris and he will ban fracking on federal lands, which might actually be a supply enhancement for oil and gas stocks. You might see prices go up. As always, there's these unintended consequences. So it's really hard to predict what's going to come out of Washington and what are the real impacts. I don't see any immediate big upsides or downsides to anything coming out of Washington in any of the remaining scenarios.

I do expect Biden would use executive orders to do things on the EPA and Paris and fracking. None of that could have a huge impact on us. I mean like things like 2035 carbon neutrality in this -- the green new deal, I mean those things are just fairy tales. It's never going to happen. It physically can't happen. It's just not the math doesn't work. And there's a number of good -- Bill Gates has been looking at this and his argument is, if you buy the conventional wisdom, which is catastrophic climate change near term or not even near term, reasonable term, you got to be doing nuclear. I think he is going to write a book on that. And when you start digging into these things and looking at the numbers, it's very difficult to manage CO2 with wind and solar.

The current technologies is not great. It's not good on cost despite the headlines you see in the levelized cost of energy analysis as you see. You know when we get high levels of penetration in a jurisdiction, we get high prices. New England has high prices. California has high prices. There's a good book out by a guy name, I think it's Michael Shellenberger, called the Apocalypse Never, who's an environmentalist. And I'm -- I consider myself an environmental steward, move to Vermont in 2001 and started a wind energy company up. I've been on the boards of solar companies. I am happy to buy into wind and solar if the prices make sense for us.

But in terms of public policy, these things that politicians are throwing out, they are fairy tales. And now what can happen is before the math and the physics intrude, you'll get price spikes, I think. And then as a holder of assets, that's going to be good for us. I think you're seeing in California people are starting to wake up to the fact that you need a heck of a lot more wind and solar than CCPT, natural gas plants to balance a grid and make it reliable. And if you're going to pour more demand on through EVs, then you're going to have to have more electricity.

So, I mean, EVs would be terrific for this company and for all electric providers. But some of these things the politicians say are just -- they're not really -- they're kind of laboratory analysis. They're not STEM analysis. And if I think if you really dig into it, it's just not going to happen that way.

And now having said that, at the margins people trying to do things that are ultimately not feasible in the time frame they're laying out can have a material impact on our business. I think it's been a headwind for us for 10 or 20 years now that wind and solar early on when I shifted our company up in Vermont, in 2001 to wind, you had terrific returns, and people were skeptical about the technology. And now we've hit the other end of the spectrum where the returns are really modest to poor and the public opinion in the conventional wisdom is all over it.

So the pendulum has swung completely to the other side. And frankly, the conventional wisdom and the political wisdom, they're not looking at the environmental impact and they're not looking at the efficacy of wind and solar on CO2. But I don't expect that to happen. Politicians don't do deep dives and analyze math and physics and economics, and compare one detriment to the environment to another detriment to the environment. They just pick things that are popular.

So I think whichever way it comes out, we're pretty well balanced. We have hydro. So things like the New York policies continue to roll out. There's likely to be higher prices and that benefit our hydro facilities. If things like California get more widespread and people realize the limits of the current battery technology with the Amionx and start realizing they need to have more reliable, more cost-effective ways to balance the grid, then CCPT comes back in the frame and we have plenty of that.

And then biomass had its own kind of attributes. But -- so that's a longer answer, but I think both on the tax side and on the energy policy side, we're fairly well balanced. And we didn't -- we don't see a big impact on the business either way. There wasn't the last 4 years and there probably won't be the next 4 years.

SafetyinNumbers

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Re: AT - Atlantic Power Corp
« Reply #237 on: January 14, 2021, 06:20:02 PM »
Management led buyout US$3.03/share preferred getting C$22

Iím not going to sell into the bid yet because often management buyouts bid low hoping there isnít a fight.

We can wait and see if one develops on either side. We should get a better idea when they file the management circular.

https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/atlantic-power-agrees-to-be-acquired-by-i-squared-capital-803865392.html

ander

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Re: AT - Atlantic Power Corp
« Reply #238 on: January 14, 2021, 07:04:44 PM »
I think this is an awful price to sell at. A take under. My fair value based on detailed asset by asset build-up was substantially higher. On the face of it, seems like management team selling (stock hasn't worked), and they can make a lot more in private hands.



Management led buyout US$3.03/share preferred getting C$22

Iím not going to sell into the bid yet because often management buyouts bid low hoping there isnít a fight.

We can wait and see if one develops on either side. We should get a better idea when they file the management circular.

https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/atlantic-power-agrees-to-be-acquired-by-i-squared-capital-803865392.html

no_free_lunch

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Re: AT - Atlantic Power Corp
« Reply #239 on: January 14, 2021, 08:05:05 PM »
Congratulations all.  Great news and yet now that I understand managements confidence I would prefer to just let it ride.  Let's see what happens.   

Thanks to Safety for carrying the torch.