Author Topic: AT - Atlantic Power Corp  (Read 94946 times)

SafetyinNumbers

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Re: AT - Atlantic Power Corp
« Reply #240 on: January 14, 2021, 08:28:52 PM »
Congratulations all.  Great news and yet now that I understand managements confidence I would prefer to just let it ride.  Let's see what happens.   

Thanks to Safety for carrying the torch.

Thanks but this one was definitely a team effort.

https://divestor.com/ was all over it too.


Nelg

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Re: AT - Atlantic Power Corp
« Reply #241 on: January 14, 2021, 10:50:28 PM »
I think this is an awful price to sell at. A take under. My fair value based on detailed asset by asset build-up was substantially higher. On the face of it, seems like management team selling (stock hasn't worked), and they can make a lot more in private hands.



Management led buyout US$3.03/share preferred getting C$22

Iím not going to sell into the bid yet because often management buyouts bid low hoping there isnít a fight.

We can wait and see if one develops on either side. We should get a better idea when they file the management circular.

https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/atlantic-power-agrees-to-be-acquired-by-i-squared-capital-803865392.html

I agree. It is one of my largest positions and I think the price is wholly unsatisfactory.

For all the management talk about how the assets are so clearly undervalued, etc, you'd also think they would be able to get a better price if they did a full marketing process. I know of hydro plants being bought for ridiculously lofty multiples right now.

Anyway I'll be waiting for more information as well.

bizaro86

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Re: AT - Atlantic Power Corp
« Reply #242 on: January 14, 2021, 11:38:42 PM »
If it makes those of you in the common feel better, I have the prefs and think the price is unsatisfactory there as well. I actually think there is a chance Canadian pref investors will vote this down. There will be a lot of folks who own this from original issue, paid the $25, and will want that back.

Rona prefs were a similar situation, where the buyout was voted down even though the offer was well above the previous trading price.

I'll vote my small position in favour, because replacing the yield at $22 won't be hard. But that isn't how everyone will see it, imo.

StevieV

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Re: AT - Atlantic Power Corp
« Reply #243 on: January 15, 2021, 05:53:18 AM »
Must be a nice start to the year for you Safety.  I haven't followed Atlantic here.  I did look at a chart this morning and see that the offer price seems to be above anywhere it has traded over the last 5 years.  Hopefully that means at least decent profits for the folks on this thread, even if people think the buyout should be higher.

Gregmal

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Re: AT - Atlantic Power Corp
« Reply #244 on: January 15, 2021, 06:00:49 AM »
Nicely done here. Congrats.

SafetyinNumbers

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Re: AT - Atlantic Power Corp
« Reply #245 on: January 15, 2021, 06:21:08 AM »
Must be a nice start to the year for you Safety.  I haven't followed Atlantic here.  I did look at a chart this morning and see that the offer price seems to be above anywhere it has traded over the last 5 years.  Hopefully that means at least decent profits for the folks on this thread, even if people think the buyout should be higher.

Better to be lucky than good. I even have some Jan 21 2.50 calls that were about to expire worthless that I bought back in August after valuedontlie (thanks!) brought them to our attention.

valuedontlie

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Re: AT - Atlantic Power Corp
« Reply #246 on: January 15, 2021, 06:42:16 AM »
Very lucky day here for me...

My 1/15/21 options set to expire today with the takeout announcement last night...

petec

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Re: AT - Atlantic Power Corp
« Reply #247 on: January 15, 2021, 07:03:37 AM »
Am in the prefs and also have mixed feelings about the price.

That said, from management's point of view, there is a balance between getting full value and getting a decent IRR for investors. The market wasn't listening to them and might not have done for a long time.
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StubbleJumper

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Re: AT - Atlantic Power Corp
« Reply #248 on: January 15, 2021, 07:12:14 AM »
Am in the prefs and also have mixed feelings about the price.

That said, from management's point of view, there is a balance between getting full value and getting a decent IRR for investors. The market wasn't listening to them and might not have done for a long time.


Yep, I have mixed thoughts on this too.  I viewed the prefs as money-good, now that the debt level is under control and with management telegraphing the continued repayment.  The only thing left to do was wait while the market realized that the prefs had become de-risked and the credit spreads narrowed.  With the healthy dividend, I didn't mind waiting a few years, but to be honest, I was hoping that we'd be at Cdn$22 anyway by this time next year and more or less $25 in 2023.  While the current offer is a considerable premium over last weeks market price, I really don't view it as fair-value.

I guess there are worse things in life than having to complain that your profits are not as high as you would like!  ;D


SJ

petec

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Re: AT - Atlantic Power Corp
« Reply #249 on: January 15, 2021, 07:16:51 AM »
Am in the prefs and also have mixed feelings about the price.

That said, from management's point of view, there is a balance between getting full value and getting a decent IRR for investors. The market wasn't listening to them and might not have done for a long time.


Yep, I have mixed thoughts on this too.  I viewed the prefs as money-good, now that the debt level is under control and with management telegraphing the continued repayment.  The only thing left to do was wait while the market realized that the prefs had become de-risked and the credit spreads narrowed.  With the healthy dividend, I didn't mind waiting a few years, but to be honest, I was hoping that we'd be at Cdn$22 anyway by this time next year and more or less $25 in 2023.  While the current offer is a considerable premium over last weeks market price, I really don't view it as fair-value.

I guess there are worse things in life than having to complain that your profits are not as high as you would like!  ;D


SJ

Agreed. I was thinking about the common as much as the prefs with that comment. The common didn't pay you so much to wait!
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