Author Topic: AIM.TO - Aimia  (Read 225327 times)

wabuffo

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 757
    • Twitter
Re: AIM.TO - Aimia
« Reply #870 on: February 15, 2021, 07:38:48 AM »
Wabuffo, I admire the dedication and skill at financial sleuthing! That is quite a find, and good news for AIM.

SW - there appear to be other sleuths that were on this trail before me.  The Davis Polk invoice was filed right at the end of January (Friday night, Jan 29th) to the Court Docket.  You'll notice that AIMIA's share price jumped the very next trading day (Monday, Feb. 1st).

wabuffo


wabuffo

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 757
    • Twitter
Re: AIM.TO - Aimia
« Reply #871 on: February 23, 2021, 09:35:52 AM »
Yesterday, Aeromexico filed its Periodic Report which provides financials for its non-debtor/bankruptcy-remote subsidiaries.
https://document.epiq11.com/document/getdocumentbycode/?docId=3863783&projectCode=AEM&source=DM

This is the second filing (its usually filed every six months or so).   What's interesting is what isn't in the report.   There are no financials for PLM Premier.  Compare this filing with the previous one from August, 2020 (PLM's financials were in that one):
https://document.epiq11.com/document/getdocumentbycode/?docId=3744124&projectCode=AEM&source=DM

Am I reading too much into this? Very likely.  But with all the background noise from the invoices through Dec, 2020 highlighting the back-and-forth about assuming the PLM contracts, another possible interCo loan from PLM to Aeromexico - it does get one's spider sense tingling.

We'll see if AIMIA has anything to announce when they release their Q4, 2020 results any day now.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Also - the executive revolving door at Kognitiv seems to be accelerating....
https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/kognitiv-corporation-announces-shawn-pearson-joins-as-president--890145706.html

https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/kognitiv-corporation-accelerates-platform-as-a-service-capabilities-with-key-hires-853036368.html

Looking at linkedin, it looks like the old Aimia ISS/ILS leadership might've gotten pushed out/retired (not sure about this) at the end of 2020 (Cindy Faust, Richard Peake).  Thus the new executive hires...

wabuffo
« Last Edit: February 23, 2021, 10:12:48 AM by wabuffo »

wabuffo

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 757
    • Twitter
Re: AIM.TO - Aimia
« Reply #872 on: February 25, 2021, 07:10:42 AM »
Hmmm - AIMIA should've released Q4 results this week which is their usual timing.  Seems now they are pushing them out to late March.  That seems odd.

https://www.aimia.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/AIM_Q4-2020_Media_Advisory_vF-newswire.pdf

wabuffo

Cigarbutt

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2880
Re: AIM.TO - Aimia
« Reply #873 on: February 25, 2021, 07:34:56 AM »
^That seemed to be Aeromexico's justification for not reporting PLM's numbers in recent filings ie wait for the public filing of involved parties.
It's likely crunch time for negotiations, not necessarily bad or good even if Aimia (opinion) seems to be on the weaker side of the table.

With the recent announcement of the DIP completion there was this (typical of distressed situations but it is what it is):
"The price of our common stock has been volatile following the commencement of our Chapter 11 process and may significantly decrease in value in the future. Therefore, any trading in our common stock during the pendency of our Chapter 11 process is highly speculative and involves substantial risks to buyers of our stock. Future recoveries in our Chapter 11 process for our shareholders will depend upon our ability to negotiate and confirm a Plan of Reorganization, the terms of such Plan, the recovery of our business from the COVID-19 pandemic and the future value of our assets upon conversion of our liabilities. Although at this stage we cannot predict how our common stock will eventually be treated under a Plan, we believe that it is unlikely that stockholders would receive a recovery through a Plan since it is expected that the holders of unsecured indebtedness will not be paid in full and will need to convert their claims into new stock to be issued by the Company."

The positives: loyalty subs are very valuable and financial partners are probably still looking to contribute, somehow
The negatives: the emerging adjusted blueprint is likely smaller than anticipated and payback may be related to future equity realization (perhaps far into the future)

wabuffo

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 757
    • Twitter
Re: AIM.TO - Aimia
« Reply #874 on: February 25, 2021, 08:03:33 AM »
It's likely crunch time for negotiations, not necessarily bad or good even if Aimia (opinion) seems to be on the weaker side of the table.

this is what I believe as well.   The airline recovery is slower than anyone expected (well at least what most expected  8)).  Borders are still largely closed and international travel is dead. 

The Debtors (and their financing partners) know that the one remaining valuable asset that can be used for collateral is PLM.  The invoicing through December showed a lot of consulting/legal advisor focus/time/billing on PLM.  I think they are trying to see if they can cook a deal but have no money to offer AIMIA.  I still think the template is the Avianca/LifeMiles template.   Worst case is that they tap PLM for more interco loans/prepaid seats - but not sure what they can offer AIMIA as a quid pro quo this time around.

That seemed to be Aeromexico's justification for not reporting PLM's numbers in recent filings ie wait for the public filing of involved parties.

Well - Aeromexico published PLM's results thru June 30, 2020 via the periodic report on August 20th, yet AIMIA did not release its Q2 results until mid-Sept.  Doesn't seem to have been a consideration then.

There's no reason to push out Q4 earnings release - unless the hope is for something to announce.   But it could end up that there is nothing to announce. 

We'll see.

wabuffo
« Last Edit: February 25, 2021, 08:05:56 AM by wabuffo »

wabuffo

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 757
    • Twitter
Re: AIM.TO - Aimia
« Reply #875 on: February 25, 2021, 04:23:14 PM »
https://document.epiq11.com/document/getdocumentbycode/?docId=3846171&projectCode=AEM&source=DM

Another invoice from legal counsel, and more 'PLM' references.  This is from Davis Polk & Wardwell, Debtor's counsel and what makes it interesting is that the billing is for Jan 2021.  The Stipulation for PLM extending the deadline for PLM to file its claim was approved on 1/15.  Yet this invoice continues to make references to PLM agreements, and calls to discuss, etc well to the end of the month.  At one point there is even a call with Apollo (the DIP lender).   You can open this up in Adobe and use the FIND command with "PLM" to quickly skip through the invoice....

So lots of 'PLM' tracks in the snow....where do they all lead?

wabuffo
« Last Edit: February 25, 2021, 04:25:05 PM by wabuffo »