Author Topic: ATTO - Atento  (Read 29061 times)

SafetyinNumbers

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Re: ATTO - Atento
« Reply #100 on: November 11, 2020, 02:24:27 PM »
Earnings out.

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/atento-reports-fiscal-2020-third-quarter-results-301171370.html

               Actual      Consensus
EBITDA    44.8m          $34.4m
Revenue   352m           326m

Margins were a bit lower than I was hoping for but revenue beat is probably more important as margins will catch up.


SafetyinNumbers

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Re: ATTO - Atento
« Reply #101 on: November 11, 2020, 04:36:24 PM »
Based on $45m in EBITDA just annualized for 2021 gives $180m which is $30m above consensus. With only 14m shares outstanding at 4.5x EBITDA adds about $10 to the share price which is a double from here.

As the market cap is lower than EBITDA, multiple expansion would also have a huge impact to the share price. Each multiple point of EV/EBITDA adds an additional $13/share to the share price. It trades at 3.6x EV/EBITDA based on the run rate EBITDA of $180m noted above and current net debt of $515m.


StevieV

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Re: ATTO - Atento
« Reply #102 on: November 12, 2020, 05:20:02 AM »
They have room for some EBITDA margin improvement.  1% improvement in EBITDA margin improvement is $14 million in EBITDA/year.  I think there is a a reasonable path to $200+ in 2021.

Refinancing and currency remain the big risks I think.

SafetyinNumbers

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Re: ATTO - Atento
« Reply #103 on: November 12, 2020, 05:25:28 AM »
They have room for some EBITDA margin improvement.  1% improvement in EBITDA margin improvement is $14 million in EBITDA/year.  I think there is a a reasonable path to $200+ in 2021.

Refinancing and currency remain the big risks I think.

Yeah, I agree. They reiterated the EBITDA margin guidance for 2022 of 14-15%. Dare to dream we get multiple expansion on top. That’s what multibaggers are often made of but we’ll see what happens.

StevieV

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Re: ATTO - Atento
« Reply #104 on: November 12, 2020, 07:26:21 AM »
Wow, even a little bit of volume today.  Typically I think the daily moves don't mean much given the anemic volumes associated with the trading.

SafetyinNumbers

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Re: ATTO - Atento
« Reply #105 on: November 12, 2020, 08:15:14 AM »
Biggest volume in 3 months, when it last got to these price levels.


irnovo

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Re: ATTO - Atento
« Reply #106 on: December 11, 2020, 11:08:35 AM »
I am a shareholder and believe that ATTO is mispriced.  It is trading above volume today. Maybe market knows something that I don't.

SafetyinNumbers

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Re: ATTO - Atento
« Reply #107 on: December 11, 2020, 11:21:07 AM »
I am a shareholder and believe that ATTO is mispriced.  It is trading above volume today. Maybe market knows something that I don't.

Wouldn’t that mean the market could be starting to see what you see?

SafetyinNumbers

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SafetyinNumbers

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Re: ATTO - Atento
« Reply #109 on: December 16, 2020, 11:19:08 AM »
A new article on Concentrix CNXC from a different author.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4394996-concentrix-interesting-spin-off#comments_header


I think CNXC buys ATTO in 2022 because it would be accretive in many ways even at multiples of the current ATTO price.