Author Topic: AWLCF - Awilco Drilling  (Read 202952 times)

SharperDingaan

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Re: AWLCF - Awilco Drilling
« Reply #40 on: May 14, 2013, 05:54:11 PM »
With earnings beating estimates, most of the FCF being distributed, & very little wiggle room - what do you think is going to happen the first time the yield hogs experience either an earnings miss, or a distribution cutback.

Enjoy the ride, but be prepared for some wild swings.

SD
 


Hielko

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Re: AWLCF - Awilco Drilling
« Reply #41 on: May 15, 2013, 06:29:47 AM »
I joined the party today, but with an (imo) prudently small sized position given the risks involved.

matts

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Re: AWLCF - Awilco Drilling
« Reply #42 on: May 15, 2013, 07:55:27 AM »
What's going on with the ADR today? Down 30+% on big volume while the local in Oslo is up 3.5%.


BG2008

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Re: AWLCF - Awilco Drilling
« Reply #43 on: May 15, 2013, 07:56:50 AM »
Looks a bit like flash crash to me, volume was only 1,000 shares.  Someone got a lucky fill

Hielko

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Re: AWLCF - Awilco Drilling
« Reply #44 on: May 15, 2013, 08:01:35 AM »
Market order + illiquid stock => this. Wonder if the lucky buyer is a forum member.

Olmsted

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Re: AWLCF - Awilco Drilling
« Reply #45 on: May 15, 2013, 08:09:32 AM »
As soon as I saw that I put in a bid at 11 to see if the price was real or whether it was a fat-finger.  The bid has not been filled.

Myth465

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Re: AWLCF - Awilco Drilling
« Reply #46 on: May 16, 2013, 06:05:47 AM »
Thanks for the idea.

Ended up buying ORIG with a similar thesis.

http://www.valueinvestorsclub.com/value2/Idea/ViewIdea/95109

If they convert to an MLP we have a similar yield convergence play.

tytthus

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Re: AWLCF - Awilco Drilling
« Reply #47 on: May 20, 2013, 03:07:22 PM »
i also picked up some of this based on otcadventures blog.  thanks...and the discussion here finally motivated me to get registered....not sure why it took so long....other than the impossibility of keeping up to date on all the discussions going on....

anyway, does anyone have further understanding of the relationship between Awilco and Awilhemsen?  from what i can tell, Awilhemsen formed Awilco & brought it public and provide management services?  now that Awilco is paying out a dividend, Awilhemsen is getting their payout from the risk of stealing buying the drill ships from RIG.

is there any indication that Awilhemsen will look to sell down their stake?  if the market reprices the 25% dividend to something in the teens, they will have a pretty nice profit on their hands.

thanks again!

Hielko

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Re: AWLCF - Awilco Drilling
« Reply #48 on: June 04, 2013, 04:00:26 AM »

DTEJD1997

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Re: AWLCF - Awilco Drilling
« Reply #49 on: June 04, 2013, 11:12:59 AM »
Hey all!

I was just thinking today about risk on Awilco.  Specifically, the risk of them only have two rigs.  Yes, it is a risk, no doubt.

HOWEVER, just how big a risk is it? 

Could it possibly be that it is LOWER risk?

As an example, after the BP & RIG explosion the Gulf of Mexico, RIG's stock went down by approximately 2/3.  RIG has a much larger fleet of rigs than Awilco.  Thus, you could make an argument that RIG is a bigger risk than Awilco.  They numerically have more rigs, and thus more chances of catastrophe.

Any thoughts about this?