Author Topic: MDXG - MiMedx Group  (Read 9353 times)

benhacker

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Re: MDXG - MiMedx Group
« Reply #40 on: May 30, 2019, 11:28:05 AM »
https://seekingalpha.com/pr/17528684-mimedx-announces-comprehensive-board-refreshment-plan-cooperation-prescience-point

Fraud going to zero, right?

With comments like this, might be best forum hygiene to state whether you have a position, and what variety.  My 2 cents (no position).
Ben Hacker
Beaverton, Oregon - USA


cameronfen

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Re: MDXG - MiMedx Group
« Reply #41 on: May 30, 2019, 04:16:28 PM »
https://seekingalpha.com/pr/17528684-mimedx-announces-comprehensive-board-refreshment-plan-cooperation-prescience-point

Fraud going to zero, right?

With comments like this, might be best forum hygiene to state whether you have a position, and what variety.  My 2 cents (no position).

Just to defend greg.  He did say he was long and then sold out.  Also in the context of this thread both longs and shorts pretty much admitted this was either a multibagger or a zero, so his comment was not all that controversial.   

Cigarbutt

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Re: MDXG - MiMedx Group
« Reply #42 on: November 10, 2019, 08:06:10 AM »
Follow-up and some kind of reflection on the state of healthcare in the US.

Disclosures:
-I think the US in this space does things that are great but also that are not so great.
-This analysis is based on an individual appreciation of the fundamentals and (like in the VMD thread where it appears that I was wrong or early which can sometimes be equivalent) being right on the process does not preclude the possibility to make a lot of money as MDMX equity has done really well since the introduction of the topic.

The emphasis here is not about the accounting and reporting red flags, it's about the fundamental value of the products. There has been considerable delay with various disclosures and some entities are ready to finance the rough patch so here are some relevant numbers for this post.

                                                                                2014          2015          2016
Total sales                                                                 118.2         187.3         245.0
-sales from wound care                                                93.6         141.1         184.0
-sales from 'surgical' products and to MD offices             24.6          46.2           61.0
(injectable stuff)

For the wound care, the growth is impressive but the placental, amniotic and umbilical cord products' effectiveness is based on poor and inconclusive evidence and many trials are sponsored and targeted "to support coverage and reimbursement".
For the injectable stuff, the same conclusion applies and the evidence is even weaker.
This has been discussed even in mainstream investing publications:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/va-bans-injectable-wound-care-products-from-mimedx-and-other-companies-for-many-uses-11560529012

I recently (yesterday) came across a report which was quite certainly not sponsored and takes a look, from the research angle, at how incentives could interact with the true efficacy of the product. The study covered the 'alternative' options used by relevant MDs in South Florida when dealing with a significant part of the addressable market (knee pain). The medical clinic revenue per patient if treated with a standard cortisone shot = $188.54. The medical clinic revenue per patient if treated with stem cell therapy-type of injection = $1200 to $6000, with a mean of $3100 and often a requirement for cash-only payments. One has to deduct the cost of procurement of the product which is different in both cases. In Canada, moderate efforts could obtain the products for about 5-10 bucks and, given the typical cost differential for the exact same items, in the US, I assume the cost could be in the $20 to 30 USD range. Because of the opaque nature of the 'alternative' market, it is hard to obtain and assess the impact of the cost of the stem cell therapy product. Very reasonable assumptions however suggest that the clinic/MD can multiply the revenue and exponentially multiply the bottom line by using a product backed with questionable evidence at best. What would you do and what does it mean for the value of the stem cell products?

The US is a great place for innovation (and also a great place for excesses). In the nineteenth century, the US was the place where innovation and entrepreneurs of various sorts allowed to be at the forefront for the development of the petroleum industry as we know it today. This was a revolution and started really when kerosene was developed to replace whale oil and lard as the primary source of light. But the 'product' initially was destined for a completely different market and the FDA did not exist but one has to wonder if the FDA really exists today. The adventurous Samuel Kier played a role and made a lot of money with the transformation but his adventure started by using the salt mine contaminant (I guess like the discarded placentas story of today) and selling it as petroleum syrup famed to cure just about anything, including "rheumatick" complaints. The evidence used by Mr. Kier was formed when he discovered that the product was prescribed for his wife who suffered from tuberculosis. The story does not say if the wife healed but the investor saw a profit opportunity. Mr. Kier then did not have to worry about the SEC or the FDA and used the following publicity:

"The healthful balm, from natureís secret spring,
The bloom of health and life to man will bring;
As from her depths the magic fluid flows,
To calm our sufferings and assuage our woes."

All that to say that stem cell therapy offers great promises which are likely to come from a direction that remains, to this day, at the margin of acceptable and known evidence. What disturbs me tough is that the margin of clinics in South Florida offering and recommending the 'alternative' stem cell therapy was 24.5% and 58% of those clinics were not transparent on price. When reading about the early development of the oil industry and the role that Mr. Kier played in it, I learned a new expression which has been described as a euphemism for a specific kind or marketing.

Gregmal

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Re: MDXG - MiMedx Group
« Reply #43 on: November 26, 2019, 11:53:33 AM »
https://www.streetinsider.com/Corporate+News/MiMedx+Group+%28MDXG%29+Confirms+%241.5M+Settlement+with+SEC/16182232.html

L.O.L....

"The SEC says the company agreed to pay $1.5M to settle the case, without admitting or denying wrongdoing."

But as usual, everyone missed the forest for the trees. Fraud = Zero, right?


Cigarbutt

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Re: MDXG - MiMedx Group
« Reply #44 on: November 26, 2019, 12:41:32 PM »
https://www.streetinsider.com/Corporate+News/MiMedx+Group+%28MDXG%29+Confirms+%241.5M+Settlement+with+SEC/16182232.html

L.O.L....

"The SEC says the company agreed to pay $1.5M to settle the case, without admitting or denying wrongdoing."

But as usual, everyone missed the forest for the trees. Fraud = Zero, right?
This story is above my abilities in terms of feeling where the wind is going but it continues to be quite entertaining. It must be tough to be a short seller looking for catalysts but this story may have several chapters as I understand that some people still have qualms about other allegations including the value of the underlying 'products'. FWIW, the FDA and other authorities have decided to look into some of the innovative stem cell related products. This process will evolve over some time and perhaps a few years and will, at least initially, be a positive as there will be an increased interest. The potential negative is that the fundamental value of the products may end up with a clearer definition in terms of efficacy. I thought Mr. Nocera did a good job reviewing the game dynamics of this story and the third link (with an attachment) may be interesting for those who have an interest in forensic accounting or who actually shorted the stock during the eventful period.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-08-19/short-seller-marc-cohodes-goes-too-far-in-mimedx-campaign
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-08-22/mimedx-has-changed-but-short-sellers-like-cohodes-can-t-see-it
https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/pr/former-chief-executive-officer-and-chief-operating-officer-publicly-traded

Gregmal

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Re: MDXG - MiMedx Group
« Reply #45 on: November 26, 2019, 01:02:22 PM »
https://www.streetinsider.com/Corporate+News/MiMedx+Group+%28MDXG%29+Confirms+%241.5M+Settlement+with+SEC/16182232.html

L.O.L....

"The SEC says the company agreed to pay $1.5M to settle the case, without admitting or denying wrongdoing."

But as usual, everyone missed the forest for the trees. Fraud = Zero, right?
This story is above my abilities in terms of feeling where the wind is going but it continues to be quite entertaining. It must be tough to be a short seller looking for catalysts but this story may have several chapters as I understand that some people still have qualms about other allegations including the value of the underlying 'products'. FWIW, the FDA and other authorities have decided to look into some of the innovative stem cell related products. This process will evolve over some time and perhaps a few years and will, at least initially, be a positive as there will be an increased interest. The potential negative is that the fundamental value of the products may end up with a clearer definition in terms of efficacy. I thought Mr. Nocera did a good job reviewing the game dynamics of this story and the third link (with an attachment) may be interesting for those who have an interest in forensic accounting or who actually shorted the stock during the eventful period.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-08-19/short-seller-marc-cohodes-goes-too-far-in-mimedx-campaign
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-08-22/mimedx-has-changed-but-short-sellers-like-cohodes-can-t-see-it
https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/pr/former-chief-executive-officer-and-chief-operating-officer-publicly-traded

Indeed. They say Cohodes went too far, and I agree with regard to the investment. You can see it today with his cheerleading even though, shorts have gotten blown up here(of which I presume he is still one). So obviously it is more emotional than financial, and given what Marc went through, I completely sympathize with him and kind of give him a pass for his behavior. The rest though, from both long and short side, I found to be disgusting. One of the things that unfortunately weighed on my decision to exit this early was in fact the vitriol and rhetoric here; something I was completely unaware of when posting the thread and something I only started seeing afterwards. With further due diligence, looking at other forums and platforms it became apparent to me that this was just a mess. Longs threatening shorts, shorts threatening longs...pieces of shit all around. Investing should be fun and like any other event in life, when its not, its time to move on. When people cant even have an opinion or investment thesis without being attacked, well, thats reprehensible to me and not something I wish to(publicly) be a part of.

The writing was on the wall though. The SEC literally never puts companies out of business, so betting on zero was obviously a bad bet. As usual though, people tend to focus on the wrong things. A simple observation is that when EVERYONE is focusing on something, that something really doesnt matter anymore because its likely priced as efficiently as possible. Like when everyone(myself included) was railing on Apple's reliance on the iPhone, well, iPhone numbers didn't matter anymore because the price reflected that. Same was the case here with the restatement. Now, its a little murkier as you allude to. I think the event driven trade is over and now one needs to be an expert on something here to make money.

Cigarbutt

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Re: MDXG - MiMedx Group
« Reply #46 on: November 26, 2019, 03:02:02 PM »
^Just a small add-on because it may not have been picked up by the market. The market for 'biologics' can be separated in different categories but the platelet-rich stuff contains a comparable profile of 'factors' versus the placental stuff. There have been interesting studies that came out recently that are shining a light at the murky picture. The last one I've seen is a well done study comparing the injection of factors with the injection of nothing in a context of 1-a recent injury, 2-direct injection at injury site and 3-looking for repair potential only and not regenerative potential for degenerative conditions which would be much harder to achieve, an ideal context to show any benefit, if there is one.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31748208?dopt=Abstract
In a transparent world, how much would you pay for zero benefit?

Spekulatius

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Re: MDXG - MiMedx Group
« Reply #47 on: November 26, 2019, 03:34:55 PM »
My own opinion is that MDXG product are probably not providing any benefit, but I am not an expert on this.

Mark Cohodes is in this short not for the money ( as he stated in the Jolly Swagman podcast), but out of principle and this has become a very personal vendetta.

So if you are in the market to make money, itís probably best to stay out of this. anyways, even with frauds or worthless junk, the stock price can become very disconnected from reality.

I jokingly said for example, that the best time to invest in SHLD was after it filed. The stock went from $0.25 to ~$2.5 briefly after they filed. Similar, GM stock during the financial crisis showed either immediately before of after bankruptcy (about Nov 2008) a strong run, even thought the stock was basically known to be worthless. I think it was solely due to technicals and got a lot of shorts wailing.

So weird thing can happen and it is possible to do counterintuitive gambles where the payoff can be quite large in stocks that are absolutely worthless.
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