« Reply #593 on: July 17, 2014, 07:41:16 AM »
Gio - while you may certainly be rational in your evaluation of BH, (wo)man is not a rational animal. In my mental model, two forces are at play here - a great story and inertia.
Biglari was a great story and still is to a great extent. Kudos to Biglari to build it up and play it that way.
Hi Shalab!
I have not said I am rational… Instead, I have just said I will take the evidence as it comes… To be rational, and to take the evidence as it comes, are very different things: the former requires much self-control and clearness of thought… The latter requires only the ability to read numbers…
So, where is the catch? Well usually, if you wait for performance to be evident, you might run the risk of losing money (if and when that performance disappoints). But here is where valuation comes into play: today BH’s market capitalization is a low enough multiple of BV that, even if Mr. Biglari starts making unsound business decisions, I don’t believe it will contract much further… Therefore, BH’s stock price actually gives us the luxury to wait for that evidence… In other words, expectations already are that Mr. Biglari is going to make mistakes in the future.
BTW - I am looking forward to "Gio Holdings" to be listed
.
Ahahahahah!!! Thank you! But I am not that ambitious… I love what I do… Wouldn’t do anything else… I am lucky enough to be financially independent… I have compounded my firm’s capital at 20% annual for the last 3 years, and this year I am up 10%... Despite my "ex" very large investment in LRE, that has cost me money this year… I know I probably won’t succeed in keeping up such a good performance for long… But I also believe I can do sufficiently well, even without other people’s money… My shareholders are my family… Why should I welcome the headache to accept others?
Cheers,
Gio
« Last Edit: July 17, 2014, 07:48:24 AM by giofranchi »

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