Author Topic: BLUE -- Bluebird Bio  (Read 4068 times)

Spekulatius

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Re: BLUE -- Bluebird Bio
« Reply #10 on: February 22, 2021, 03:17:31 PM »
I agree BLUE seems too cheap with an EV ~$530M for some leading edge clinical programs. I think there is a chance that the gene therapy will get approved, but it is going to take some time.
I own some BMRN (bought after the crash) and they are looking at a 1-2 year delays for what looks like smaller issue.  Perhaps a larger Pharma or biotech becomes interested and takes them out. At this point, I do think the risk reward looks favorable.
Life is too short for cheap beer and wine.


reader

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Re: BLUE -- Bluebird Bio
« Reply #11 on: February 23, 2021, 01:17:44 AM »

There's also their collaboration agreement with Regeneron.

Mr. Yancopoulos Regeneron's CMO and cofounder had said at a recent conference that Bluebird and Alnylam remind him of Regeneron when it was a young company and generally that the collabs are going very well.
Regeneron is not very promotional but has good science.

REGENERON AND BLUEBIRD BIO ANNOUNCE COLLABORATION TO DISCOVER, DEVELOP AND COMMERCIALIZE NEW CELL THERAPIES FOR CANCER


https://investor.regeneron.com/news-releases/news-release-details/regeneron-and-bluebird-bio-announce-collaboration-discover


RUFeebz

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Re: BLUE -- Bluebird Bio
« Reply #12 on: February 23, 2021, 03:07:04 PM »
Thanks nsa122 for sharing. I like this idea a lot. Initiated a position today.
Agree with Spekulatis EV of ~500million seems too cheap especially considering a phase 3 CAR-T candidate.
Found these papers which I found helped:
https://www.ashclinicalnews.org/news/patients-sickle-cell-disease-increased-risk-hematologic-cancers-especially-leukemia/
https://ashpublications.org/bloodadvances/article/4/9/2058/455054/Myelodysplastic-syndrome-unrelated-to-lentiviral
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/23072778/

reader

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Re: BLUE -- Bluebird Bio
« Reply #13 on: February 25, 2021, 11:20:32 AM »

The CEO and the CMO of Bluebird presented today at SVB Leerink Global Healthcare Conference. The fire chat was very informative re the two cancer cases. they said that the investigation is going in a positive direction and elaborated on each case.
They were very transparent but I know them to be promotional so..

https://investor.bluebirdbio.com/events/event-details/svb-leerink-global-healthcare-conference


patience_and_focus

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Re: BLUE -- Bluebird Bio
« Reply #14 on: February 26, 2021, 10:31:17 AM »

The CEO and the CMO of Bluebird presented today at SVB Leerink Global Healthcare Conference. The fire chat was very informative re the two cancer cases. they said that the investigation is going in a positive direction and elaborated on each case.
They were very transparent but I know them to be promotional so..

https://investor.bluebirdbio.com/events/event-details/svb-leerink-global-healthcare-conference

Thank you much for posting. This is very informative.

Agree that there is positive undertone (spin if you will) from the CEO Nick Leschly. But if we keep that aside and just hear the new information revealed by the CSO Philip Gregory, it is more matter of fact (for first 10 mins at least) and is indeed positive. For the first patient with AML and vector in the leukemic cell, they also found 11q abberation, monosomy 7 and other mutations. It will be very hard to prove that somehow the vector is root cause (driver) of these abberations in one patient (N=1) when they look at other subjects with equal disease severity in this and other arms of the clinical study and don't see any evidence of leukemia. Here is the original paper published last year on one patient who developed MDS following LentiGlobin a couple of years back - https://ashpublications.org/bloodadvances/article/4/9/2058/455054/Myelodysplastic-syndrome-unrelated-to-lentiviral. For example monosomy 7 is known to be a risk related to  busufan treatment and was alluded to in this paper-

"The finding of monosomy 7 in this patient is expected in secondary myeloid neoplasia, including following exposure to alkylating agents such as the busulfan."

Also if these 2 subjects are not treatment naive for Hydroxyurea (they switched therapies when getting on clinical trials for lentiviral therapy) then there is one more important potential driver of AML. I don't know if these subjects were on previous therapy. The CSO hints (starting at 7:40 min) they may do a genome wide RNASeq. I have worked with this kind of data. It very hard to figure out if there is a causal link between changes in transcription patterns and phenotypic findings. So the finding can be open to interpretation which may bode well for bluebird given all the other information.

I do think there is a risk of slow adoption of gene therapy in the clinic given the current life expectancy of sickle cell patients (and even for thalassamia) plus factors tied to gene therapy (cost, conditioning agent requirement, perceived risk of cancer etc).
« Last Edit: February 26, 2021, 10:33:53 AM by patience_and_focus »

reader

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Re: BLUE -- Bluebird Bio
« Reply #15 on: February 26, 2021, 01:51:01 PM »


Jacob Plieth of Evaluate Vantage is critical of Bluebird for disclosing the latest news about the two cancer cases in the SVB Leerink healthcare conference rather than in a regulatory filing. He's not wrong but
this webcast was advertised well in advance and was just one day after Q4 2020 release. I couldn't find the traditional quarterly CC, strange and the next day as the encouraging news flowed through the WC the stock got weaker(thanks for the chance to pick up some more BLUE)

Nevertheless, he's very informative and has a timeline I don't recall from listening to the webcast.

"Bluebird is continuing its investigation, and the complete analysis of the AML case could now come in a couple of weeks"

Bluebird sings to a select group of investors

https://www.evaluate.com/vantage/articles/news/snippets/bluebird-sings-select-group-investors?mkt_tok=NjA3LVlHUy0zNjQAAAF7fhmtGOJ-j85TkXGM3hx0v1YGdf2VQbtsHM_emXDJXc37jTySIrtpWgQbeBNe6xa4nTreR5JoA_1y2CmRJsCzLyFzPt-_OOXQsaQlNFHDMYpNrQ

nsa122

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Re: BLUE -- Bluebird Bio
« Reply #16 on: February 26, 2021, 04:40:36 PM »
It is remarkable to me that there are so many holders of bluebird that were so unsophisticated as to dump the stock leading to a 50% decline on news that would not really surprise anyone with some hematology/oncology expertise. I think even anyone with any general medical background would at least think to say, hmm, is this a result of the treatment or the disease? and do a little research on that before selling. And then you wonder, did the management anticipate such a dramatic market response to the news? Either way, not a data point in favor of argument for efficient markets.