Author Topic: BOL.PA - Bollore  (Read 52593 times)

no_free_lunch

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Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
« Reply #70 on: October 17, 2017, 07:17:15 AM »
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-17/this-is-how-a-french-billionaire-retires

Quote
French billionaire Vincent Bollore plans to retire on Feb. 17, 2022, the 200th anniversary of his family-held Bollore Group.

..

He’s hitting obstacles on all fronts. Politicians, regulators, minority shareholders and would-be targets are resisting his attempts to use Vivendi SA to swallow leading broadcast, communications and video-game companies in Italy and France. Since he started building his controlling stake in Vivendi, Bollore has bought and sold 42.6 billion euros ($50.6 billion) in corporate assets—and it’s not clear what he’s gotten for it.

In addition to the pushback, Vivendi, which Bollore controls through a 21 percent minority stake, has been roiled by conflict at its units as he slashes costs, sheds assets and splashes out on acquisitions. Net cash has sunk from 8 billion euros in September 2015 to barely 500 million in June.


SI

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Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
« Reply #71 on: November 14, 2017, 09:00:54 AM »
If anyone else has done more work on the PFIC status here, I would appreciate hearing what you learned. My read is that ODET is not a PFIC because  of the “look through exception” to the PFIC code(link below) as ODET FP is the 63% owner of BOL FP but would love to know if anyone else has crossed this bridge?

thanks,
SI

https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/26/1297

no_free_lunch

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Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
« Reply #72 on: January 14, 2018, 08:13:15 AM »
Quote
If Spotify, which isn’t yet profitable, will soon be worth $20 billion, as some investors predict, Universal should be valued at more than $40 billion, argues JPMorgan analyst Daniel Kerven in a recent report.

What’s remarkable about that estimate is that Vivendi (ticker: VIV.France) recently had a stock market value of 30.3 billion euros, or $36.9 billion.

“You pay for Universal Music, and you get everything else for free,” says David Marcus
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Valuing Vivendi is complicated because some of its assets produce little or no income. Its shares trade at 24 times the 2018 earnings consensus. Many analysts use a sum-of-the-parts analysis, rather than a price/earnings comparison in forming price targets.

JPM’s Kerven is a bit of an outlier, with a target of €42, implying 76% upside from a recent €23 and change. Evermore’s Marcus sees the stock moving “into the high €30s,” and says a Universal spinoff is a possibility, but he hopes Vivendi keeps it.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/vivendi-looks-cheap-in-light-of-spotifys-valuation-1515813894

Bollore owns 20% of vivendi and it is a significant portion of Bollore's NAV.  Just off the top of my head the vivendi stake is probably close to 50% of bollore's market value.

In spite of the 50-60% run up last year, Bollore still appears attractively priced. 

ebdem

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Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
« Reply #73 on: January 14, 2018, 10:28:21 AM »
You are right, it still seems attractive to invest via bollore in vivendi. Might be a good option.
What I haven't understood totally is the havas transaction. Did anyone of you spend some time on it? I am curious what upside optionalities you see there.

no_free_lunch

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Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
« Reply #74 on: January 14, 2018, 11:23:40 AM »
I think the upside was to Bollore and it occurred when the transaction closed.

no_free_lunch

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Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
« Reply #75 on: January 15, 2018, 10:23:05 AM »
Our little investment company had its AGM today featuring the bear case on bitcoin, bull cases on AC and BOL.PA. A few slides in it might help you pull apart the empire. https://www.nsx.com.au/ftp/news/021734052.PDF

I just saw your presentation.  This is fantastic, thanks for sharing it.   I couldn't entirely follow everything on it but I agree that Odet is the way to play this.  You get an extra discount (to Bollore's market value) and extra self-cancelling shares, it is just a much better deal than Bollore with no discernible extra risk.   Either way you have the same management.  Odet is honestly the cheapest equity security I am aware of right now, period.

I am really having a hard time valuing the operations side of Bollore.  Muddy Waters put it at around $8B pre-debt considerations, but that is already a couple years old.  You have a breakdown in your presentation but I really have a hard time understanding it.  Do you have a number in mind for operations? 

Also, does your presentation include the $2.3B from the Havas sale?
« Last Edit: January 15, 2018, 10:25:48 AM by no_free_lunch »

ebdem

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Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
« Reply #76 on: January 19, 2018, 03:10:13 PM »
I think the upside was to Bollore and it occurred when the transaction closed.

I am not so sure. There are so many moving parts, but we might see some upside from the integration. If we think of an alliance between mediaset and canal+ and they become the media powerhouse for the french and spanish speaking countries, having a global agency on board might be very interestigng. Or Telecom Italia becoming a separated provider without a landline network there might be some options to sell telecom and internet services - also with the help of havas.

Scunny Bunny

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Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
« Reply #77 on: January 22, 2018, 02:54:01 AM »
The quick and dirty on Bollore does include the Havas deal.

Mondegreen

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Re: BOL.PA - Bollore
« Reply #78 on: April 20, 2018, 03:26:31 PM »

CLM5

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