Author Topic: VIP - Vimpelcom  (Read 2035 times)

yadayada

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VIP - Vimpelcom
« on: June 30, 2014, 10:06:54 PM »
Would love your opinion packer. Trading at about 4.5x ev/ebitda i think. 15-20% FCF yield? I guess location is russia ukraine etc. So that is reason it is not v well liked.

Ukraine is 7.6% of revenue tho.

Operations are mostly corrupt and poor country's it seems:

Average revenue growth rate during forecasted period

                        
Italy

         1,5   %            1,0   %
Russia

         4,4   %            4,9   %
Ukraine

         0,1   %            4,1   %
Algeria

         n,a,                n,a,    
Pakistan

         11,8   %            12,1   %
Kazakhstan

         3,7   %            4,4   %
Kyrgyzstan

         8,6   %            10,0   %
Uzbekistan

         3,1   %            1,9   %
Armenia

         -1,3   %            -0,8   %
« Last Edit: July 01, 2014, 02:57:52 AM by yadayada »


Max Alpha

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Re: VIP - Vimpelcom
« Reply #1 on: July 01, 2014, 04:27:17 AM »
I haven't had a look at it recently but i was surprised i never spotted it here.

The tough climate in the Italian business was dragging results down fairly consistently but at such modest valuations it still looked like there might be value.

Capex spend has been particularly high (around 21% of revenue), it would be worth investigating whether this is expected to reduce to more normal levels in the future and provide an improvement to FCF. Management had cut dividend payments in an effort to reduce debt as well.

The Ukraine operation is not a large proportion of revenue as you pointed out and when the crisis broke out the stock got hammered. From memory management wrote down the Ukrainian business in response to this to the point that it was effectively valued as worthless and announced huge losses on the bottom line which sent the stock into a dive despite a great free cash flow position.