Author Topic: CLWY - Calloway's Nursery  (Read 32838 times)

porcupine

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Re: CLWY - Calloway's Nursery
« Reply #50 on: August 16, 2018, 02:31:48 PM »
Yea I agree for the most part. The timing is definitely uncertain for when he will exit. I think that the more liquidity he draws, the better the price he will get... especially because this stock is so thinly traded. So I think he has an incentive to try and draw the most liquidity possible.
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brycepeterson

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Re: CLWY - Calloway's Nursery
« Reply #51 on: August 17, 2018, 09:32:53 AM »
2Q18 was better than I anticipated on sales & GM.  The GM's in 1Q18 & 2Q18 are consistently better vs. '17.  I wonder why?  Perhaps the "plant it for me" business is adding a bit?  Seems like that would be high margin?

Question:  What makes you think 3K will sell-out? 

Strategically, at $4 million to $5 million FCF per year, it's in great shape.  Generating enough cash to open a new location when desired; buyback a large amount of stock each year (tender offer, or buy slowly in open market); and/or pay large dvd to yourself; pay-down debt. 

If I were them, given where the stock price is ($8 / share, $54.2 million EV), and $4 million to $5 million FCF per year (call it 7.5% to 9% FCF yield on EV - which is huge in current market), I'd do a tender somewhere in the $8 to $9 range and draw-out the weak hands.  See how that plays-out and then evaluate.  Even is they don't get much selling, worst case, they own more of the biz & collect the annual FCF. 

If Calloway's was trading in the 5% to 6.5% FCF/EV range, I'd be more tempted to sell-out ($11-$12.50 per share).

Thanks all,

Bryce

mbrock77

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Re: CLWY - Calloway's Nursery
« Reply #52 on: August 20, 2018, 06:44:18 AM »
Stock is up 30%? Some news besides earnings, or is this just sloppy trading?

brycepeterson

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Re: CLWY - Calloway's Nursery
« Reply #53 on: August 20, 2018, 07:21:54 AM »
I don't see any news.

DTEJD1997

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Re: CLWY - Calloway's Nursery
« Reply #54 on: October 18, 2018, 09:34:01 AM »
hey all:

CLWY appears to be moving up in price again.

Bid is $8.50, ask is $9.

No apparent news.

I will be anxious to see if there is another dividend declared this year.

Anybody know anything?

brycepeterson

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Re: CLWY - Calloway's Nursery
« Reply #55 on: October 18, 2018, 03:12:02 PM »
DT,

No news I know of. 

It's thinly traded lately, so when it went down to $7.90 I figure minor seller at market, then up to $8.50, same thing.

It's so cheap here on FCF to EV basis that it will go higher given time.  I wish 3K would do a mini-tender and draw-out the weak hands or owners who desire liquidity to get out...increase our ownership.  Could offer $8-$8.25/share, buy up to $5 million worth.  We'll see.

Bryce

porcupine

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Re: CLWY - Calloway's Nursery
« Reply #56 on: November 14, 2018, 03:00:01 PM »
Q3 results posted.
“Successful investing is having everyone agree with you — later.” –Joe Robillard

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brycepeterson

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Re: CLWY - Calloway's Nursery
« Reply #57 on: November 15, 2018, 08:34:48 AM »
On track for $4.5 million FCF in 2018.  8% FCF yield on Enterprise Value of $57.2 million.

mbrock77

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Re: CLWY - Calloway's Nursery
« Reply #58 on: November 15, 2018, 09:00:42 AM »
I think that might be optimistic? I have them at $3mm through Q3 and FCF is usually flat for them in Q4.

brycepeterson

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Re: CLWY - Calloway's Nursery
« Reply #59 on: November 15, 2018, 11:04:50 AM »
If you take out working capital swings (seasonal positive or negative), FCF YTD about $4.8 million ($1.5, $4.7, -$1.4).  My 4Q18 estimate -$0.275 FCF = $4.5.  But that 4Q18 estimate uses $250,000 capex vs. $40,000 3Q18...conservative.  I can try to post my #'s if you want.  I tried to cut & paste from Excel, but it looked awful.  Maybe can attach doc.

I'm guessing the $3.0 FCF YTD is with working capital swings.

Thinking about CLWY's stock price...

Not a huge growth company, so don't expect it to double or anything crazy.  But huge FCF vs. price for the business, combined with common sense use of it can produce good results.  Does help confidence that sales, margins, FCF in the business is fairly stable.