Author Topic: LTRPA - LIBERTY TRIP ADVISOR  (Read 1239 times)

walkie518

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LTRPA - LIBERTY TRIP ADVISOR
« on: November 05, 2019, 07:31:44 PM »
the discount to NAV is pretty material here and while I think TRIP on its own is worth more, LTRPA seems like a better bet as it has decoupled from the underlying

Maffei's contract is supposed to expire the end of this year, unless there's a deal in the mix, this will get extended

previously, Maffei only owned the Bs but recent filing shows he's bought some A shares around the current price ... last filing I saw was his buy of Formula One about 30% under where it's trading today

the Expedia deal is likely a blueprint for Tripadvisor ... and why should TRIP be worth less per user than EXPE if the former can monetize them as effectively? 

what am I missing?



ander

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Re: LTRPA - LIBERTY TRIP ADVISOR
« Reply #1 on: November 06, 2019, 10:30:30 AM »
What discount to NAV is it?

Seems like the bet you're making is on TRIP, right? How are you thinking about TRIP? I haven't looked at for some time. I think they've had a number of mis-steps in the transformation that they're undergoing by competing directly against their own customers. I think they're trying to grow the Experiences segment and there might be a substantial opportunity there but will likely take years, no?

Stuart D

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Re: LTRPA - LIBERTY TRIP ADVISOR
« Reply #2 on: November 08, 2019, 02:21:06 AM »
LTRPA down almost 30% after releasing their 10-Q.

EV/FCF = 5.3
P/FCF = 2.1

(using 5-year average FCF).

I only just started looking at it, but it seems cheap.
« Last Edit: November 08, 2019, 02:23:34 AM by Stuart D »

chesko182

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Re: LTRPA - LIBERTY TRIP ADVISOR
« Reply #3 on: November 08, 2019, 05:12:39 AM »
LTRPA down almost 30% after releasing their 10-Q.

EV/FCF = 5.3
P/FCF = 2.1

(using 5-year average FCF).

I only just started looking at it, but it seems cheap.

what FCF numbers are you looking at?
I'm seeing roughly $175mm 5yr avg FCF, adding back SBC which is a huge cost for them ($100mm per year)
If you net out the cash from the b/s I get to over 20X P/FCF... not especially cheap considering the problems they're facing and revenue growth for the past 5years has been ~5%.

if you look at other high quality/growth tech companies like GOOG/FB they trade at that multiple or below and growing much faster.
twitter: @chesko182

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chesko182

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Re: LTRPA - LIBERTY TRIP ADVISOR
« Reply #4 on: November 08, 2019, 05:17:38 AM »
to be clear, I looked at TRIP, so any discount that Liberty Trip trades at you can apply to those multiples, but at the end of the day you need to be really comfortable with TRIP to invest in LTRPA (unless you're hedging)
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walkie518

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Re: LTRPA - LIBERTY TRIP ADVISOR
« Reply #5 on: November 08, 2019, 07:28:38 AM »
to be clear, I looked at TRIP, so any discount that Liberty Trip trades at you can apply to those multiples, but at the end of the day you need to be really comfortable with TRIP to invest in LTRPA (unless you're hedging)
for sure the stub trade might be the safest bet if it's a NAV play

after the drop, though, TRIP is far more appealing

the user-base is very large and when comparing against EXPE you can see what TRIP mgmt has left on the table ... I think this can be monetized, which again, if measured against EXPE, you can see how quickly cash flow can change

Google is the elephant in the room ... not sure how they solve this problem.  They might not know how to solve it either since G wants to be EXPE or TRIP.  G tried to be FB and that failed though so we'll see what sticks.    Then again, if you check on google trends, TRIP doesn't show positive momentum. 

Yelp, while still largely used, buckled somewhat -- not sure if that's the right way to think about TRIP since TRIP's user-base is far more sticky, but this is the risk on takes

TRIP also cash flows pretty nicely ... provided this doesn't change and the improvements they are investing in work, this might be a very reasonable entry point on a risk/reward basis

Stuart D

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Re: LTRPA - LIBERTY TRIP ADVISOR
« Reply #6 on: November 08, 2019, 01:23:38 PM »
LTRPA down almost 30% after releasing their 10-Q.

EV/FCF = 5.3
P/FCF = 2.1

(using 5-year average FCF).

I only just started looking at it, but it seems cheap.

what FCF numbers are you looking at?
I'm seeing roughly $175mm 5yr avg FCF, adding back SBC which is a huge cost for them ($100mm per year)
If you net out the cash from the b/s I get to over 20X P/FCF... not especially cheap considering the problems they're facing and revenue growth for the past 5years has been ~5%.

if you look at other high quality/growth tech companies like GOOG/FB they trade at that multiple or below and growing much faster.

Hi chesko182,
Thanks for your comment.
For FCF I was looking at OpCF - CapEx, from the 2014 to 2018 10-k's.

Wow, $100m in SBC. I hadn't noticed that line on the cash flow statement. That's something I'll be looking out for in future. Numbers don't look so great when taking that into consideration.
Cheers,