Author Topic: CLWY - Calloway's Nursery  (Read 31395 times)

Travis Wiedower

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Re: CLWY - Calloway's Nursery
« Reply #30 on: August 28, 2017, 07:20:03 AM »
Hey all:

WOW, CLWY really had tremendous earnings...I am shocked this stock is not higher.

The balance sheet has shown marked improvement also.

There is a very good chance that CLWY is still very "cheap" at $6/share.

Agreed. I added to my position after earnings. I'm surprised the stock isn't higher.
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oddballstocks

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Re: CLWY - Calloway's Nursery
« Reply #31 on: August 28, 2017, 07:25:20 AM »
What's the hit from this storm for them?  Are locations underwater?
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_JJ_

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Re: CLWY - Calloway's Nursery
« Reply #32 on: August 28, 2017, 07:36:44 AM »
I think DFW area is safe for now. Wondering what their Houston location is like at the moment. They don't mention anything on their FB-page.

DTEJD1997

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Re: CLWY - Calloway's Nursery
« Reply #33 on: August 28, 2017, 11:34:20 AM »
I think DFW area is safe for now. Wondering what their Houston location is like at the moment. They don't mention anything on their FB-page.
I believe Dallas has had minimal damage (if any) from the Hurricane.

Houston is a much different case.  One of my ex-employees has had to evacuate their house...too much water in it.  My ex-girlfriend had over a foot of water on the 1st floor of her house.  Other people I know had NO damage or very minimal.

A lot of landscaping may need to be reworked/redone in a week or two?  Could actually lead to increased sales for the Houston location?

Travis Wiedower

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Re: CLWY - Calloway's Nursery
« Reply #34 on: September 01, 2017, 11:27:12 AM »
Been calling their Houston location everyday this week and they reopened today. The guy I spoke to assured me the store is fine and their inventory is fully stocked. According to Drive Texas there are zero road closures in Piney Point Village (where the store is located), which is also a good sign. I've always thought that Houston location is Calloway's biggest store so I still expect it to affect Q3 results, maybe a 1-2% hit to revenue or something like that. As DTE said, it could also turn out to be a positive over the next few quarters.

I haven't bothered to call any Dallas stores. It seems like they got nothing more than wind and rain (similar to what we got in Austin).
« Last Edit: September 01, 2017, 11:28:59 AM by Travis Wiedower »
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EricSchleien

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Re: CLWY - Calloway's Nursery
« Reply #35 on: September 02, 2017, 01:02:07 PM »
Been calling their Houston location everyday this week and they reopened today. The guy I spoke to assured me the store is fine and their inventory is fully stocked. According to Drive Texas there are zero road closures in Piney Point Village (where the store is located), which is also a good sign. I've always thought that Houston location is Calloway's biggest store so I still expect it to affect Q3 results, maybe a 1-2% hit to revenue or something like that. As DTE said, it could also turn out to be a positive over the next few quarters.

I haven't bothered to call any Dallas stores. It seems like they got nothing more than wind and rain (similar to what we got in Austin).

I did bother calling Dallas. It took me 20 seconds. As Travis said, they're fine.

bergman104

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Re: CLWY - Calloway's Nursery
« Reply #36 on: September 03, 2017, 11:33:45 AM »
It looks like they usually do very well at the 6 month mark but then actually lose money the rest of the year in terms of net income. June 2014, 2015 and 2016 were $0.39, $0.29 and $0.41 EPS respectively, while full-year was ~$0.28, $0.19 and $0.26. Full year 2014 was an estimate because of their property sale. Anyway, I agree with most of this post that this is a great underfollowed company with a business model I can understand. But what are full year expectations? Is ~$7 actually cheap if they lose money the next 6 months?

Travis Wiedower

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Re: CLWY - Calloway's Nursery
« Reply #37 on: September 03, 2017, 01:20:51 PM »
It looks like they usually do very well at the 6 month mark but then actually lose money the rest of the year in terms of net income. June 2014, 2015 and 2016 were $0.39, $0.29 and $0.41 EPS respectively, while full-year was ~$0.28, $0.19 and $0.26. Full year 2014 was an estimate because of their property sale. Anyway, I agree with most of this post that this is a great underfollowed company with a business model I can understand. But what are full year expectations? Is ~$7 actually cheap if they lose money the next 6 months?

I posted the following on SumZero yesterday:

"If the second half of this year is identical to 2016 (conservative assumption in my opinion), my estimate of full year NOPAT is $4.4 million. A 12.5x multiple on that results in a yearend enterprise value of $60 million (equivalent to a stock price of $7.80).

In terms of updating my discounted cash flow, the biggest factor is operating margins going forward. One could easily argue that 2017 is nearing the end of a bull cycle and these operating margins are not sustainable. On the other hand, one could argue margins have increased since the new management team came in so they are likely to be permanent operational improvements. Likely a bit of both. Depending on operating margin movement going forward (stays at current levels vs some mean reversion), I can get a realistic fair value between $7.10 and $9.00. Don't forget this only values the operating business. They also own a couple dollars worth of real estate."
My investing blog: Egregiously Cheap

mbrock77

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Radio Free Cash Flow

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Re: CLWY - Calloway's Nursery
« Reply #39 on: November 16, 2017, 04:37:42 PM »
This company just keeps executing. Operating income and profits hitting new highs. Operating margin is up 800 basis points since 2012. Excellent returns on capital as well, which leads me to think they'll consider opening another garden center or two in 2018. The return on capital does benefit somewhat from legacy low-cost real estate, but the two centers they opened in 2016 seem to be contributing strongly already.

Still a bargain at ~11x 2017 earnings and under 7x EBIT. My biggest fear is that Peter Kamin & Co. take my shares away from me in a buyout.