Author Topic: CMG.TO - Computer Modelling Group  (Read 8428 times)

tenyearsout

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Re: CMG.TO - Computer Modelling Group
« Reply #30 on: August 09, 2019, 08:50:36 AM »
Recent quarter results:
https://www.cmgl.ca/sites/default/files/uploads/docs/pdf/CMG_Q1_20_Results.pdf

They mention a further agreement with Shell regarding Coflow:
“Subsequent to quarter-end, CMG and Shell signed an amendment to the CoFlow agreement. In order to achieve specific development targets and deployments across a broader range of Shell’s assets, CMG will allocate more resources to CoFlow over the next two years, while Shell will increase its financial contribution accordingly. The costs of additional resources allocated to CoFlow are expected to be in the range of $4.5 – $6.5 million on an annualized basis by the end of fiscal 2020.”

They didn’t mention signing any new customers on Coflow this quarter.  Just wondering what people’s interpretations are about the new Shell agreement.  Positive or negative? 
It could be that the software isn’t yet ready yet and needs more work or maybe that it’s utility is being realized and can be further improved.  Just curious as to others thoughts. 


Foreign Tuffett

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Re: CMG.TO - Computer Modelling Group
« Reply #31 on: September 16, 2019, 07:53:07 AM »
Recent quarter results:
https://www.cmgl.ca/sites/default/files/uploads/docs/pdf/CMG_Q1_20_Results.pdf

They mention a further agreement with Shell regarding Coflow:
“Subsequent to quarter-end, CMG and Shell signed an amendment to the CoFlow agreement. In order to achieve specific development targets and deployments across a broader range of Shell’s assets, CMG will allocate more resources to CoFlow over the next two years, while Shell will increase its financial contribution accordingly. The costs of additional resources allocated to CoFlow are expected to be in the range of $4.5 – $6.5 million on an annualized basis by the end of fiscal 2020.”

They didn’t mention signing any new customers on Coflow this quarter.  Just wondering what people’s interpretations are about the new Shell agreement.  Positive or negative? 
It could be that the software isn’t yet ready yet and needs more work or maybe that it’s utility is being realized and can be further improved.  Just curious as to others thoughts.

It's no secret that CoFlow needs more work, as its leadership was reshuffled recently. Shell remaining committed to paying for 50% of the development costs is the most important thing. For those concerned about the dividend being cut (as I am), the increased cash expenditures are concerning. So overall I would say neutral to somewhat negative.

One correction: They did sign new CoFlow customer agreements in FY Q1 (Earnings release: "As messaged in our fiscal 2019 Financial Report, in the current quarter we signed two agreements with two new customers for short-term use of CoFlow, our newest integrated asset modelling product, on specific projects.").

Finally, anyone looking for an oil name that didn't pop this morning on the Saudi news should take a look at this as it's only up ~1.5% today.






tenyearsout

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Liberty

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Re: CMG.TO - Computer Modelling Group
« Reply #33 on: October 24, 2019, 04:35:17 AM »
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Foreign Tuffett

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Re: CMG.TO - Computer Modelling Group
« Reply #34 on: October 24, 2019, 07:40:26 AM »
A good addition to the board.
 
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/computer-modelling-group-announces-director-203005851.html?.tsrc=applewf

Mark Leonard has been complimentary about this company in the past.

Do you have a source for that? I've seen this mentioned before, but what was the context?

Jurgis

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Re: CMG.TO - Computer Modelling Group
« Reply #35 on: October 24, 2019, 10:30:25 AM »
Would/could Constellation buy CMG?


I relooked at this again, but my perception did not change from the May 2019 discussion on this thread. In short: might be a big winner if/when cycle turns, and it has OKish FCF in meantime, but who knows when/if cycle will turn. Might be a buy if you're fine with ~6% FCF while waiting...
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bizaro86

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Re: CMG.TO - Computer Modelling Group
« Reply #36 on: October 24, 2019, 12:26:02 PM »
Would/could Constellation buy CMG?


I relooked at this again, but my perception did not change from the May 2019 discussion on this thread. In short: might be a big winner if/when cycle turns, and it has OKish FCF in meantime, but who knows when/if cycle will turn. Might be a buy if you're fine with ~6% FCF while waiting...

I doubt they would put someone on the board if they were even considering buying CMG. CMG is probably too expensive and too "growthy" for constellation.

Liberty

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Re: CMG.TO - Computer Modelling Group
« Reply #37 on: October 24, 2019, 12:34:30 PM »
Do you have a source for that? I've seen this mentioned before, but what was the context?

I don't remember. Maybe it was a comment at the AGM? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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Liberty

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Re: CMG.TO - Computer Modelling Group
« Reply #38 on: October 24, 2019, 12:35:45 PM »
Would/could Constellation buy CMG?


I relooked at this again, but my perception did not change from the May 2019 discussion on this thread. In short: might be a big winner if/when cycle turns, and it has OKish FCF in meantime, but who knows when/if cycle will turn. Might be a buy if you're fine with ~6% FCF while waiting...

If the price got low enough, they might try. Maybe buy some stock if the company isn't open to a sale of the whole thing.

But the price would have to be right... Best chance is if it gets really distressed, scaring away most other bidders. But that's a long shot.
"Most haystacks don't even have a needle." |  I'm on Twitter  | This podcast episode is a must-listen

Jurgis

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Re: CMG.TO - Computer Modelling Group
« Reply #39 on: October 24, 2019, 01:34:10 PM »
Would/could Constellation buy CMG?


I relooked at this again, but my perception did not change from the May 2019 discussion on this thread. In short: might be a big winner if/when cycle turns, and it has OKish FCF in meantime, but who knows when/if cycle will turn. Might be a buy if you're fine with ~6% FCF while waiting...

If the price got low enough, they might try. Maybe buy some stock if the company isn't open to a sale of the whole thing.

But the price would have to be right... Best chance is if it gets really distressed, scaring away most other bidders. But that's a long shot.

If I had to guess, it's not very likely to get way more distressed unless the business becomes broken. Or Canadian market has a meltdown.

It's not cheap enough for me maybe, but if you look at 6% FCF with stable revenues during a downcycle, there's likely enough investors to buy it and hold just for that plus eventual upcycle.

But who knows, everything's possible.  8)
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