Author Topic: CNRD - Conrad Industries  (Read 21605 times)

mjohn707

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Re: CNRD - Conrad Industries
« Reply #40 on: October 01, 2019, 10:42:42 AM »
I bought shares recently, seems cheap if things ever turn around for them.  Also seems like everyone wanted to own it at $40, but it's pretty unpopular at $10
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DTEJD1997

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Re: CNRD - Conrad Industries
« Reply #41 on: October 01, 2019, 11:04:37 AM »
This stock could be tremendously down if a Democrat wins the presidential election.

Several leading candidates have declared their hostility to off shore drilling for O&G.  Several have stated that they would put an end to it entirely.  They have also stated their opposition in general to fossil fuels.

If I remember correctly, a HUGE portion of CNRD's business is for oil barges and work related to the O&G industry.

So if offshore O&G is severely curtailed OR put an end to, CNRD might not be a viable business entity?

Just something to consider...

mjohn707

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Re: CNRD - Conrad Industries
« Reply #42 on: October 01, 2019, 12:03:14 PM »
This stock could be tremendously down if a Democrat wins the presidential election.

Several leading candidates have declared their hostility to off shore drilling for O&G.  Several have stated that they would put an end to it entirely.  They have also stated their opposition in general to fossil fuels.

If I remember correctly, a HUGE portion of CNRD's business is for oil barges and work related to the O&G industry.

So if offshore O&G is severely curtailed OR put an end to, CNRD might not be a viable business entity?

Just something to consider...

Maybe we’ll get lucky and they’ll just ban fracking
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Foreign Tuffett

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Re: CNRD - Conrad Industries
« Reply #43 on: October 01, 2019, 12:10:58 PM »
This stock could be tremendously down if a Democrat wins the presidential election.

Several leading candidates have declared their hostility to off shore drilling for O&G.  Several have stated that they would put an end to it entirely.  They have also stated their opposition in general to fossil fuels.

If I remember correctly, a HUGE portion of CNRD's business is for oil barges and work related to the O&G industry.

So if offshore O&G is severely curtailed OR put an end to, CNRD might not be a viable business entity?

Just something to consider...

Maybe we’ll get lucky and they’ll just ban fracking

Yeah, then this would probably go back to $30 or $40 as the O&G majors scrambled to pivot back towards GOM deepwater drilling.

Company had a ~10 year period of glory as GOM drilling expanded, driving the need for more O&G-related vessels of all types. The oil crash + fracking/shale drilling put an end to the party and now demand for new vessels is episodic. The good news is that they've got enough cash to wait out the cycle, but that doesn't necessarily mean equity holders will do well.

wabuffo

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Re: CNRD - Conrad Industries
« Reply #44 on: October 01, 2019, 12:37:35 PM »
To get some industry and competitive background, it pays to follow Arcosa's (ACA) - investor presentations.  Their Inland Barge Division is a competitor to Conrad. Their two facilities are based along the Mississippi River system (hence the name "inland") -- one in Missouri and the other in Tennessee.  I've attached some of snippets from their presentations in 2018 (when their parent Trinity Industries split off parts of its business including Inland Barge).

Another interesting website is this website that catalogs US and Canadian shipbuilding activity.  Here's a tab on Inland Barge Deliveries ytd 2019 (Conrad appears as "Conrad" and "Orange", Arcosa appears as "Trinity Industries".   Lots of interesting historical data on this website.

http://shipbuildinghistory.com/statistics/activitybarges2019.htm

wabuffo
« Last Edit: October 01, 2019, 12:40:21 PM by wabuffo »