Author Topic: TWTR - Twitter, Inc.  (Read 38697 times)

DooDiligence

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2306
  • ♪ 🎶 ♫ ♪ 🎶 ♫
Re: TWTR - Twitter, Inc.
« Reply #110 on: May 30, 2019, 08:16:29 AM »
I understand that Dorsey is founder/so-founder of each, but how long will this ridiculous situation in which he is CEO of two large tech companies continue?

Bbbbuttt, Elon Musk?




Hmm, I think I should not have said that.  8)

Elon is boring under your home right now in preparation to deploy robot chickens to wreak havoc.
AFL // BRK.B // CLB an incredibly stupid move // EW // GPC // MO an incredibly stupid ex-CEO // MTB // NVO // PSX // TRMD // ULTA // VDE // VLGEA // WFC

Investable cash 16% + 18 months of survival $


Schwab711

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1804
Re: TWTR - Twitter, Inc.
« Reply #111 on: May 30, 2019, 09:06:03 AM »
I think TWTR is cheap and severely under-monetized. It still trades at 28x FCF and 23x-25x NTM FCF with 10%+ revenue growth.

Ex-excess cash (leave $500m or so), total capital is roughly $4.5b, implying a ROIC of ~22%. ROIIC has been ~25% in recent years.

By most measures, it's a fantastic business trading at reasonable relative multiples.

The platform/culture is unique amongst internet sites and certainly anything historical. It is the first true public forum that allows anyone to connect with anyone. Folks can have their opinions broadcasted by the POTUS or discuss investing specifics with Jim Chanos on a regular basis. More importantly, the top individuals in nearly every field are active on the platform, which draws in aspiring individuals within those fields and so on.

TWTR is the fastest news wire available to citizens.

I have no idea if, when, or how they will ultimately decide to monetize the platform, but I think it's worth holding some position in TWTR.

On the other hand, as long as Dorsey is CEO the company will probably under monetize and overspend. Right?

I understand that Dorsey is founder/so-founder of each, but how long will this ridiculous situation in which he is CEO of two large tech companies continue?

I wasn't the biggest Dorsey fan for a while but both SQ and TWTR have been run quite well in hindsight. Both have favored innovation (it might be hard to see at TWTR but the improvement in advertising analytics has been huge) over immediate monetization and have now begun to slowly monetize. Maybe I just don't know enough about him to realize he's what everyone says, but it looks like Dorsey is more like Bezos than incompetent. His plans seemed crazy until they proved to be correct and both companies have low GAAP returns but produce a lot of cash.

I think Dorsey is misunderstood/underrated.

Foreign Tuffett

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1255
Re: TWTR - Twitter, Inc.
« Reply #112 on: October 30, 2019, 04:12:40 PM »
So these guys missed significantly on revenue last Q. Unfortunately for investors, they didn't come in light on expenses ("lower-than-expected revenue and no significant changes to our ongoing investments").

Is there something intrinsic about how Twitter works that makes it relatively unattractive to advertisers? Do ads just not get clicked on?

Also, Jack Dorsey just announced the following several hours ago: "We’ve made the decision to stop all political advertising on Twitter globally." Interesting.

https://twitter.com/jack/status/1189634360472829952
Former Teldar Paper Vice President

mbreject

  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Posts: 56
Re: TWTR - Twitter, Inc.
« Reply #113 on: October 30, 2019, 04:24:35 PM »
They put ads in between tweets and it's annoying for some. I wish they'd put it on the side like FB does, but I understand how that wouldn't work for mobile.

Spekulatius

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4942
Re: TWTR - Twitter, Inc.
« Reply #114 on: June 27, 2020, 08:36:09 PM »
Looks like any social media platforms and Twitter in particular have a serious issue here with companies boycotting because they want to censor some content and others leaving because their content is censored too much:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/27/parler-ceo-wants-liberal-to-join-the-pro-trump-crowd-on-the-app.html

I do think this will inevitably lead to me fragmentation in this space.
Life is too short for cheap beer and wine.

fareastwarriors

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3738
Re: TWTR - Twitter, Inc.
« Reply #115 on: June 28, 2020, 11:10:22 AM »
Looks like any social media platforms and Twitter in particular have a serious issue here with companies boycotting because they want to censor some content and others leaving because their content is censored too much:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/27/parler-ceo-wants-liberal-to-join-the-pro-trump-crowd-on-the-app.html

I do think this will inevitably lead to me fragmentation in this space.

I thought other social media/discussion/forums tried hands-off approach before. Eventually the moderation had to come because there were too many crazies or the places shut down.

Jurgis

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5350
    • Porfolio
Re: TWTR - Twitter, Inc.
« Reply #116 on: June 28, 2020, 03:55:12 PM »
Looks like any social media platforms and Twitter in particular have a serious issue here with companies boycotting because they want to censor some content and others leaving because their content is censored too much:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/27/parler-ceo-wants-liberal-to-join-the-pro-trump-crowd-on-the-app.html

I do think this will inevitably lead to me fragmentation in this space.

Parler CEO would be a bad CEO if he did not try to get people to join his platform.

Fragmentation is/was real before and it is going to be real in the future. Hey, look at investing universe. There's CoBF, SI, bogleheads, Motley Fool, and a bunch of more investing forums, not even counting Fidelity and other broker internal forums. If that's not fragmentation, then I don't know what is.

The real question for mainstream social media universe is whether there will be significant (10%+) shifts to/from new/old/different platforms. I am not sure. I think this is very hard to predict. Let's put it this way: the shift is hard in the beginning since your "friends" are on the old platform and your audience is on the old platform. If significant portion of either/both shifts, then it becomes easier. Overall though, I am not sure if people would prefer shifting to niche platforms. But if the niche platform somehow is very attractive, then people will shift.

I think that the demographical shifts are way more dangerous than the niche platforms. I.e. if young people abandon Facebook/Twitter/Instagram/WhatsApp, that is a way bigger audience loss than if some 0.01% of population consisting of righties/lefties/whatevers move somewhere.

I also mostly agree with fareastwarriors that "anything goes" platform is not going to work. It's going so self destruct really fast or become superniche. Hey, 4chan still exists. 8)
 
But sure there's always a risk that something appears that gets huge traction and huge move.
"Human civilization? It might be a good idea." - Not Gandhi
"Before you can be rich, you must be poor." - Nef Anyo
"Money is an illusion" - Not Karl Marx
--------------------------------------------------------------------
"American History X", "Milk", "The Insider", "Dirty Money", "LBJ"

Spekulatius

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4942
Re: TWTR - Twitter, Inc.
« Reply #117 on: June 29, 2020, 04:21:58 AM »
The generational/ demographically shift is an issue, but it is a slow one. What is the mean age of a FB user? I guess it is probably above 50 in thr US. My son is on Snapchat and he also has an Instagram account. A lot of his classmates use Tiktok as well. I doubt he will ever get a FB account.
The fragmentation through new competitor could occur fairly quickly., which could impair valuation quickly. The problem I am seeing is that the very thing that increases user engagement (free uncensored speech) although leads to a toxic environment which makes it an issue for the advertisers. How to serve both well is an issue and I am not sure there is a good solution for all platforms.
Life is too short for cheap beer and wine.