Author Topic: CTL - CenturyLink  (Read 106972 times)

gfp

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Re: CTL - CenturyLink
« Reply #290 on: January 17, 2019, 11:47:41 AM »
I doubt a sovereign wealth fund is selling because they have to or because of a margin call elsewhere in their portfolio.  They presumably want to sell.  I didn't follow the situation, but is it possible that the shares were restricted until just recently?  It is a 144 filing after all.


walkie518

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Re: CTL - CenturyLink
« Reply #291 on: January 17, 2019, 12:06:39 PM »
I doubt a sovereign wealth fund is selling because they have to or because of a margin call elsewhere in their portfolio.  They presumably want to sell.  I didn't follow the situation, but is it possible that the shares were restricted until just recently?  It is a 144 filing after all.

Temasek is a weird beast...not typical sovereign wealth fund

That said, you're likely correct that the sale has more to do with portfolio positioning away from the US.  From the 2018 Temasek media conference:

Turning to the United States, growth has been strong, but risks are building.

We anticipate GDP growth to continue above trend this year, reflecting tax cuts and increased government spending.

Private consumption has also been resilient and labour market improvements are providing additional support.

We expect the Federal Reserve will continue tightening monetary policy.

However, with the economy running above capacity and a fiscal boost in the late stage of this economic cycle, the risk of overheating has increased.

Against this backdrop, we are pacing our investments, and focused on our intrinsic value-based approach.

Valuehalla

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Re: CTL - CenturyLink
« Reply #292 on: January 20, 2019, 09:29:18 AM »
Temasek Holdings position in CTL shares is spreaded to different subsidiaries

Temasek Holdings owns

100 % of Tembusu Capital and 100% of Temasek Capital

Tembusu Caital owns 100 % of Bartley Investment, which owns 100 % of Elligton Investments and 100% of Everitt Investments

Temasek Capital owns 100 % of Seletar Investments, which owns 100% of Aranda Investments

Temasek Holdings holds shares of CTL:
  8,7 % reported before 27th March 2018
  9,7 % reported on 27th March 2018
11,0 % reported on 4th April 2018
 9,9 % reported on 16th January 2019

http://ir.centurylink.com/Cache/396409096.pdf

As it looks to me, they sold tbe shares app to the same prices now, as they paid to increased their position in 2018.

« Last Edit: January 20, 2019, 09:49:13 AM by Valuehalla »
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LightWhale

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Re: CTL - CenturyLink
« Reply #293 on: January 21, 2019, 09:13:11 AM »
Interesting that Corvex, who were the most bullish on CTL post-merger, sold out. Anyone knows why?

kab60

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Re: CTL - CenturyLink
« Reply #294 on: January 24, 2019, 06:31:03 AM »
Conference poll: 15% like the dividend; 28% say cut the divi and raise capex; 13% say cut the divi and buy back shares; 45% say cut the divi and repay debt. Response: we have repaid $2.7bn in LT obligations since the merger. Very serious about getting ND/EBITDA to the low end of the 3-4x range.
Since it seems like a lot of posters here somewhat base their thesis on the dividend being sustained, I'd say this should get your attention. 73 percent wants them to cut the divy and either retire debt or invest in the business. Divy/no divy doesn't change the value of the company, but I'd be surprised if management didn't take notice of the markets' signals. Obviously, the market might have it totally wrong, we'll see. Perhaps it pops if they cut the dividend?

Valuehalla

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Re: CTL - CenturyLink
« Reply #295 on: January 24, 2019, 06:44:33 AM »
There was the same poll, with similar results a year ago.

The new CFO confirmed the divi for the next few years. No signal from the management to cut the divi.

Debt is reduced all the time... additionally to the divi.
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Valuehalla

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Re: CTL - CenturyLink
« Reply #296 on: January 24, 2019, 06:46:25 AM »
Corvex:

I think they are still on board, by holding Calls.

Does anybody know how to get information about that?
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walkie518

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Re: CTL - CenturyLink
« Reply #297 on: January 24, 2019, 07:46:15 AM »
Corvex:

I think they are still on board, by holding Calls.

Does anybody know how to get information about that?
looks like Corvex sold out

they could have sold the stock in full and bought calls...provided that the underlying shares of those contracts are less than 5% of the company, there would be no requirement to file except for the 13F

I'm a little surprised but there could be other factors at play...moreover, corvex doesn't have a history of being a long-term holder...if you look at their portfolio as of last 13F, you'll see that the vast majority of stocks were bought in 2017 and 2018

gfp

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Re: CTL - CenturyLink
« Reply #298 on: January 24, 2019, 08:00:02 AM »
Yeah, Covex's call options on CTL were disclosed on the 13F when they held them.  I think they expired worthless two separate times.  It's possible that the final call options on 7.5million underlying shares were sold and didn't expire completely worthless but either way they don't have a position in CTL anymore.

petec

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Re: CTL - CenturyLink
« Reply #299 on: January 24, 2019, 08:20:53 AM »
Conference poll: 15% like the dividend; 28% say cut the divi and raise capex; 13% say cut the divi and buy back shares; 45% say cut the divi and repay debt. Response: we have repaid $2.7bn in LT obligations since the merger. Very serious about getting ND/EBITDA to the low end of the 3-4x range.
Since it seems like a lot of posters here somewhat base their thesis on the dividend being sustained, I'd say this should get your attention. 73 percent wants them to cut the divy and either retire debt or invest in the business. Divy/no divy doesn't change the value of the company, but I'd be surprised if management didn't take notice of the markets' signals. Obviously, the market might have it totally wrong, we'll see. Perhaps it pops if they cut the dividend?

I wish they would. The divi clearly is not valued by the market and elevates risk (due to higher debt) if anything goes wrong with the FCF story. It's the one thing I really question about this management team.