Author Topic: LNG - Cheniere Energy  (Read 29937 times)

petec

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Re: LNG - Cheniere Energy
« Reply #50 on: February 07, 2020, 11:31:52 PM »
Man I was thinking it had dropped under $50 the way you were talking. At $56 the price is no lower than a year ago, and only a couple bucks lower than during the summer.

I tend to agree with your thesis but doesn't scream cheap to me.

The absolute price needs to be compared with the cash flow potential of the company. Quite a lot has happened in the last year, not to mention two trains coming on early and without issues.
FFH MSFT BRK BAM ATCO LNG IHG TFG CGT DC/A


ValueMaven

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Re: LNG - Cheniere Energy
« Reply #51 on: February 08, 2020, 10:52:44 AM »
Yes - totally agree w/the point above.  Market seems to be overreacting here.  Im a big big fan of current management as well.  Real operators! 

petec

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Re: LNG - Cheniere Energy
« Reply #52 on: March 13, 2020, 09:09:35 AM »
Absolutely loving this.

Midpoint of the DCF guidance range for 2023 (when last of the currently FID'd trains comes on) is $9/share.

Even if you discount that to say $7 in case there are no marketing profits, you get 4.5x per share.

That's a distributable cash flow yield of 22%.

In the meantime every 6 months they delay FID on CC Stage 3 gives them $500m to play with. The market cap is $8.7bn so every 6 months they delay that FID, they can in theory buy in 5.7% of the company.

CEO bought $1m shares at $45 and you can get it for $33.
FFH MSFT BRK BAM ATCO LNG IHG TFG CGT DC/A