Author Topic: DVA DaVita HealthCare Partners  (Read 219550 times)



cubsfan

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Re: DVA DaVita HealthCare Partners
« Reply #661 on: February 12, 2020, 04:41:23 AM »
A real cannibal - Munger would be proud.

Down to 125M shares from 215M in a just a couple of years.
I wonder if Chanos figured that one out?

DooDiligence

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Re: DVA DaVita HealthCare Partners
« Reply #662 on: February 12, 2020, 05:06:11 AM »
A real cannibal - Munger would be proud.

Down to 125M shares from 215M in a just a couple of years.
I wonder if Chanos figured that one out?

Maybe he'll start shorting again?
Davita could loan him the shares.

I screwed up & panic sold mine before the turn.
« Last Edit: February 12, 2020, 05:07:59 AM by DooDiligence »
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mwtorock

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Re: DVA DaVita HealthCare Partners
« Reply #663 on: February 12, 2020, 06:03:23 AM »
This is about fairly valued now. It is an election year and political impact on healthcare is not very predictable. If i am short, i would wait for a pullback to close the position, unless of cause someone believes it is an insurance fraud.

cubsfan

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Re: DVA DaVita HealthCare Partners
« Reply #664 on: February 12, 2020, 09:53:09 AM »

Davita could loan him the shares.

I screwed up & panic sold mine before the turn.

Dude - it's been a rough, rough ride, so hard to blame you!

I sure hope Chanos starts shorting again. Love to see another loaded up buyback. Geez, they bought back 6% of the shares in 1 quarter.

ander

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Re: DVA DaVita HealthCare Partners
« Reply #665 on: February 13, 2020, 07:02:10 AM »
The headwinds I mentioned below have subsided and the tailwinds of Medicare Advantage have become the focus re: the substantial likely benefit in the coming years. There is substantial capacity for additional share buybacks. Onwards and upwards.


Quite comical that the investment community missed this part I highlighted below. They finished the $2 B buyback and have much more to do. Even today's analyst notes are getting the share count wrong. Still a lot more upside with base business showing stabilization and improvement. The overhangs are the regulatory / ballot initiatives but the dialysis industry has done a good job making the obvious case on behalf of these very sick patients (the structure was set up by the government decades ago re: medicare subsidizing commercial payors).


I just spent time going through their deck in more detail - I didn't think that their leverage was already 3.4x ND / EBITDA as they stated at the Capital Markets Day but needed to understand how they were calculating the number. There's a footnote on the last page which basically explains in the new credit agreement they can only count $750 million of the cash on their balance sheet towards the ND portion of the calc. Based on my numbers (post the share buybacks done), they have closer to $1.4 billion of cash on the balance sheet, so the leverage is really a lot lower. To get to 3.5x ND / EBITDA, they have about $850 million of additional share buybacks left to do. Pretty interesting.