Author Topic: EAF - GrafTech  (Read 55155 times)

hasilp89

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Re: EAF - GrafTech
« Reply #180 on: May 14, 2020, 11:32:04 AM »
50% decline and sold out. Generally Pabrai exits when it goes below 10 cents.


I was watching Ackman Herbalife documentary and found remarkable similarities to Poof funds

1) HLF and Pooof - insiders make it out like bandits
2) Both need fresh set of naive losers to join in, with money and exit with no money
3) Both spend a ton on marketing, recruiting, talks in various forums
4) Both move from country to country to find new recruits  and opportunities

unclear are you saying that pabrai's funds are ponzi schemes?. not sure what a poof fund is.


valueinvestor

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Re: EAF - GrafTech
« Reply #181 on: May 14, 2020, 03:43:44 PM »
50% decline and sold out. Generally Pabrai exits when it goes below 10 cents.

I was watching Ackman Herbalife documentary and found remarkable similarities to Poof funds

1) HLF and Pooof - insiders make it out like bandits
2) Both need fresh set of naive losers to join in, with money and exit with no money
3) Both spend a ton on marketing, recruiting, talks in various forums
4) Both move from country to country to find new recruits  and opportunities

Can you elaborate? Not sure what you are trying to say.

valuebet

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Re: EAF - GrafTech
« Reply #182 on: November 12, 2020, 07:05:42 AM »
Brookfield sold a decent amount of EAF shares two days ago, roughly 8,407,869 https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/931148/000114036120025199/xslF345X01/form4.xml
They also sold a small number of shares over the past two weeks. Any thoughts?

BG2008

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Re: EAF - GrafTech
« Reply #183 on: November 12, 2020, 08:44:53 AM »
Brookfield sold a decent amount of EAF shares two days ago, roughly 8,407,869 https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/931148/000114036120025199/xslF345X01/form4.xml
They also sold a small number of shares over the past two weeks. Any thoughts?

Don't buy Brookfield IPOs?

Arski

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Re: EAF - GrafTech
« Reply #184 on: November 12, 2020, 10:45:46 AM »
How could Pabrai be so bearish about GrafTech, while first being so damn bullish? He thought the pandemic would crush GrafTech?
I don't know much about GrafTech but looks an interesting investment opportunity.

BG2008

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Re: EAF - GrafTech
« Reply #185 on: November 12, 2020, 11:20:35 AM »
How could Pabrai be so bearish about GrafTech, while first being so damn bullish? He thought the pandemic would crush GrafTech?
I don't know much about GrafTech but looks an interesting investment opportunity.

Seems pretty Pabrai like

mattee2264

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Re: EAF - GrafTech
« Reply #186 on: November 12, 2020, 11:27:08 AM »

  In fairness to Pabrai I don't think he could have predicted the pandemic which kinda ruined the whole LTC element of his case. But probably a good reminder that you can't buy a commodity type business and delude yourself into thinking heads you win tails you don't lose much.

roark33

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Re: EAF - GrafTech
« Reply #187 on: November 12, 2020, 11:33:35 AM »
The LTC element was ruined before the pandemic, people starting breaking their commitments back in 2019.

Arski

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Re: EAF - GrafTech
« Reply #188 on: November 12, 2020, 01:23:15 PM »
Okay, I feel kinda dumb here.

I didn't dig into this company but what is LTC? And even for a commodity business they are still making quite good money right?
Ttm FCF per share of 2, which gives a EV/FCF of 5.5.
Or am I just into the wrong path?

roark33

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Re: EAF - GrafTech
« Reply #189 on: November 12, 2020, 01:27:30 PM »
LTC is long-term contracts. 

There is a huge amount of operating leverage in this business and pricing continues to decline.  So, as sales decline, fixed cost structure is hard to change, therefore this company can go from very profitable to losing money quickly.  The debt is another reason to worry given the financial leverage.