Author Topic: EVI - EVI Industries  (Read 4407 times)

roark33

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Re: EVI - EVI Industries
« Reply #10 on: December 03, 2019, 09:42:59 AM »
I think if you were a fly on the wall at ADW, there would be a specific strategy discussion of how they can get people to "buy" into the story of these under the radar stocks and create huge value for their returns without the business ever getting better.  This is also the case at Greenhaven.  There is no reason that EVI should be worth 500m.   But, I am an extreme cynic...


kab60

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Re: EVI - EVI Industries
« Reply #11 on: December 03, 2019, 10:52:31 AM »
I don't wanna speculate about motives, I really appreciate their letters. The narrative on EVI is intriguing, but I don't see how paying 400m USD for an unproven roll-up makes sense. I went through the ADW presentation, and even though I didn't come across anything that seemed egregious on its own, there's just a ton of assumptions/and or things that needs to go right. Doesn't seem like a low hurdle to clear.

I also suppose it could get ugly at the exit, if/when ADW/Greenhaven gets redemptions/decides to sell off in highly valued story stocks. EVI is espescially interesting in that the stock is the currency to finance the roll-up, so there's some reflexivity to the case as well - not much different than what happened to yielcos, MLP's etc. When the stocks went down, the growth narrative broke down (I actually think that was good for those Companies longer term).

So if EVI goes down, acquisitions will be harder to do, and what happens to those owner/operators that took pay in overvalued stock? Will they start selling indiscriminately when their lockup expires, or will they just be pissed they accepted to get somewhat paid in what might be overvalued stock? Bottom line, narrative is intriguing, can't get comfortable with the numbers, and as the last two trading sessions has shown it can quickly get ugly.

Hope it works out, but I'd be fine jumping onboard later on if the numbers starts matching the narrative (and valuation was reasonable...).

Deepdive

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Re: EVI - EVI Industries
« Reply #12 on: December 05, 2019, 09:55:53 PM »
I think if you were a fly on the wall at ADW, there would be a specific strategy discussion of how they can get people to "buy" into the story of these under the radar stocks and create huge value for their returns without the business ever getting better.  This is also the case at Greenhaven.  There is no reason that EVI should be worth 500m.   But, I am an extreme cynic...

How much of ADW's historical returns is from this?  I can imagine a nice CAGR when stocks go from single digits to $50s, at least until they go back below $10.  Are they still in IDW? 

Deepdive

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Re: EVI - EVI Industries
« Reply #13 on: December 05, 2019, 09:57:55 PM »
EVI and IDW conjure up images of a pyromaniac walking into a crowded theater

Broeb22

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Re: EVI - EVI Industries
« Reply #14 on: December 06, 2019, 04:13:03 AM »
EVI and IDW conjure up images of a pyromaniac walking into a crowded theater


When  ADW's EVI position represents 1/3 of his fund's assets, he has been consistently buying since late 2016, and from what I can see has never sold a share, it is hard to argue that he is anything but sincere in believing this company is a long-term investment for him.

Based on his purchase prices, EVI likely drove a lot of his returns in 2017, but has been a drag on his performance the last two years.

As an aside, why is it wrong or "promotional" for a long-term holder of a business to present their research publicly but not wrong for a short-term driven activist to present their research? Does someone publicly presenting their research automatically mean they have ulterior or short-term profit motives just because many people who present their research publicly have short-term profit motives?

Wouldn't someone be highly hypocritical and tarnish their reputation if they named their presentation "Using up one of our punches" (in reference to Buffett's punch card) to pump and dump a stock like this?

capitalg

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Re: EVI - EVI Industries
« Reply #15 on: February 10, 2020, 03:55:52 PM »

Tim Eriksen

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Re: EVI - EVI Industries
« Reply #16 on: February 11, 2020, 07:11:57 AM »
And another lousy quarter where management spins everything as great.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/65312/000117494720000134/ex99-1.htm


roark33

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Re: EVI - EVI Industries
« Reply #17 on: February 11, 2020, 09:00:04 AM »
What I find interesting is that ADW was a seller of this stock and IDWM, both of which have been long-term position that are at their lows.  I wonder if there is a big redemption there.  I mean, I think selling both of these crappy businesses is the right decision, but after giving a very public presentation on EVI, they are selling shortly thereafter. 

1ion

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Re: EVI - EVI Industries
« Reply #18 on: February 11, 2020, 08:42:00 PM »
What I find interesting is that ADW was a seller of this stock and IDWM, both of which have been long-term position that are at their lows.  I wonder if there is a big redemption there.  I mean, I think selling both of these crappy businesses is the right decision, but after giving a very public presentation on EVI, they are selling shortly thereafter.

Also sold activist position in SIC...

capitalg

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Re: EVI - EVI Industries
« Reply #19 on: February 14, 2020, 03:58:42 AM »
There must be something going on with ADW.  Last 13-F had them owning significant positions in EVI, PAR, and SIC.  By now they have fully liquidated SIC and cut EVI and PAR by half (maybe more by now).  Not sure why they don't report IDWM holding (maybe because IDWM is no longer SEC reporting?), but it seems pretty clear that someone has been selling that as well.  As mentioned above, maybe a significant redemption?  Or maybe he found another more compelling opportunity?