Author Topic: FDX - FedEx  (Read 23597 times)

Jurgis

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Re: FDX - FedEx
« Reply #10 on: July 05, 2018, 06:48:31 AM »
To incense anti-AMZN crowd, I should bring up the AMZN specter: they are trying to build out both long-haul and last mile delivery. How much this can hit FDX?  8)
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Spekulatius

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Re: FDX - FedEx
« Reply #11 on: July 06, 2018, 06:51:29 AM »
To incense anti-AMZN crowd, I should bring up the AMZN specter: they are trying to build out both long-haul and last mile delivery. How much this can hit FDX?  8)

The tariff war which might or might not be enduring is a much larger concern. UPS and FDX are major beneficiaries of international trade.
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Jurgis

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Re: FDX - FedEx
« Reply #12 on: July 06, 2018, 08:39:58 AM »
I took a look at https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1048911/000095012317006152/fdx-10k_20170531.htm
International is ~40% of revenue. Tough to say how much of that would be impacted by tariffs.
"Human civilization? It might be a good idea." - Not Gandhi
"Before you can be rich, you must be poor." - Nef Anyo
"Money is an illusion" - Not Karl Marx
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"American History X", "Milk", "The Insider", "Dirty Money", "LBJ"

Viking

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Re: FDX - FedEx
« Reply #13 on: November 14, 2018, 09:50:52 AM »
Started a small position today. Lower oil prices should ge a nice tailwind. BAC CEO recently said consumer spending in US is up 9% year over year in October (70% of US economy).

I need to do a lot more reading but looks like an interesting opportunity at $225. The comments attached to the article below are quite good.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4221263-simply-cheap-ignore-fedex-due-diligence-dive

Spekulatius

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Re: FDX - FedEx
« Reply #14 on: December 15, 2018, 01:09:28 PM »
At $185 currently, or about 10x forward earnings (assuming the forecasts materialize), the stock certainly looks cheap. It looks to me like Mr Market punishes the transports as sensitive to the economy and particular FDX due to the change in leadership that came without prior notice. the latter could mean issues that have not transpired yet. Overall, it seems to me like a company with a lot of tailwinds that can grow in the high single digits and probably is underearning a bit due to the TNT integration, which takes time. I haven’t heard much about the shift from 5 days/week to six days/delivery, but it could be a gamechange in terms of utilization.  I have been buyer of the stock recently.
« Last Edit: December 15, 2018, 01:32:48 PM by Spekulatius »
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Viking

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Re: FDX - FedEx
« Reply #15 on: December 16, 2018, 01:14:27 AM »
At $185 currently, or about 10x forward earnings (assuming the forecasts materialize), the stock certainly looks cheap. It looks to me like Mr Market punishes the transports as sensitive to the economy and particular FDX due to the change in leadership that came without prior notice. the latter could mean issues that have not transpired yet. Overall, it seems to me like a company with a lot of tailwinds that can grow in the high single digits and probably is underearning a bit due to the TNT integration, which takes time. I havenít heard much about the shift from 5 days/week to six days/delivery, but it could be a gamechange in terms of utilization.  I have been buyer of the stock recently.

Spekulatius, i will be paying close attention to FDX when they release earnings this week. Speculation is the change in leadership may signal a miss in the upcoming release (perhaps linked to the TNT integration turnaround not materializing as previously communicated?). We will find out in a few days. Mr. Market may serve up a nice fat pitch right down the middle of the plate :-) We can only hope.

DCG

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Re: FDX - FedEx
« Reply #16 on: February 06, 2019, 11:34:05 AM »
Anyone looking at Fedex? Stock appears like it's pretty cheap.

gjangal

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Re: FDX - FedEx
« Reply #17 on: February 06, 2019, 04:11:42 PM »
it does appear cheap compared to UPS and itís own historical valuations. I think the amazon logistics threat is overblown for Fedex. They are maybe 3 or 4% of revenue.

I believe omnichannel retail could be a tailwind for the company. Unit growth and pricing also will help in the future. Relatively cheap compared to index and peers

Itís not a home run scenario but a low double digit return seems possible.

dwy000

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Re: FDX - FedEx
« Reply #18 on: February 06, 2019, 04:47:51 PM »
it does appear cheap compared to UPS and itís own historical valuations. I think the amazon logistics threat is overblown for Fedex. They are maybe 3 or 4% of revenue.

I believe omnichannel retail could be a tailwind for the company. Unit growth and pricing also will help in the future. Relatively cheap compared to index and peers

Itís not a home run scenario but a low double digit return seems possible.

I suspect the Amazon threat is less about the loss of them as a customer as it is having them as a direct competitor.

gjangal

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Re: FDX - FedEx
« Reply #19 on: February 06, 2019, 06:03:06 PM »
it does appear cheap compared to UPS and itís own historical valuations. I think the amazon logistics threat is overblown for Fedex. They are maybe 3 or 4% of revenue.

I believe omnichannel retail could be a tailwind for the company. Unit growth and pricing also will help in the future. Relatively cheap compared to index and peers

Itís not a home run scenario but a low double digit return seems possible.

I suspect the Amazon threat is less about the loss of them as a customer as it is having them as a direct competitor.

This is a good point, i wasnít thinking in those lines. Itís a credible threat, that too one without much regulation like pharma. I suspect they will have to rationalize their costs if they start losing incremental market share. Might take a few years to play out though