Author Topic: FIZZ - National Beverage Corp  (Read 19139 times)

gfp

  • Lifetime Member
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2051
Re: FIZZ - National Beverage Corp
« Reply #40 on: March 06, 2020, 06:47:26 AM »
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200305005854/en/

Starting to see some improvements here, with some big product launches weeks away.

"ďThe numbers reflect the effects of a strategy that generated increased momentum of brand LaCroix. LaCroix has returned to positive growth in a much different sparkling water category that existed prior to October 2018, when litigation slowed the growth of LaCroix, which also affected the growth of the total sparkling water category."

The CEO is just so odd...  No LaCroix customer that I know was even aware of this litigation, much less let it influence their purchasing behavior.  The CEO seems like the only one who cared about this litigation and thought it was a big deal.  Competition is so much more of a factor than "winning" a lawsuit or remaining "authentic" or whatever else he is fixated on...


bilo

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 22
Re: FIZZ - National Beverage Corp
« Reply #41 on: March 06, 2020, 07:56:30 AM »
It has been explained many times.  The litigation itself had almost nothing to do with the harm done to the LaCroix brand.   These types of lawsuits are a dime-a-dozen and are usually settled quietly.  One of the ginger ail brands had a similar incident and literally no one heard about it.

The actual cause of the damage to the LaCroix brand was the media firestorm that erupted in fall of 2018 when "click bait" media started running with language in the Law firm's press release that absurdly referenced, "cockroach poison" as an ingredient.   This proved to be, and still is, the greatest attention the brand has ever received in its history, and it was revoltingly negative.  Go to Google Trends and search, "LaCroix water" and look at 5 year data.  The enormous spike you see is the week or two after the media-induced hysteria.    This media hysteria triggered an -immediate- reaction in shelf-space allocation by retailers.  They panicked at a truly horrendous time for FIZZ, as enormous levels of new competition was coming to market.  It was an incredibly fortuitous bit of luck for Bubly and others.   

Regardless, the quarter was very good.  Many companies would have been devastated by the "cockroach" pr event (Audi USA was almost destroyed by their "unintended acceleration" fiasco in the late 80's, which also turned out to be totally bogus media hysteria, for example.) In my view what occurred to  FIZZ was one of the worst (both in terms of impact and the utter unfairness) PR disasters of all time.  Yet here is FIZZ, chugging along throwing off tons cash flow. 

Technical float is only 25% of outstanding shares..  Looks to me like average price on repurchases (first in 17 years) was just over $40.. so if they (CEO, really) want to defend that level IMO its not sane to be short as if CEO sees value there, could be taken private at any time or cut float 25% or more, etc.

Gregmal

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4106
Re: FIZZ - National Beverage Corp
« Reply #42 on: March 06, 2020, 08:14:26 AM »
Very well said. FIZZ has very much been an investment reliant on narratives. The narrative just changed. Comps have inflected, and summer is coming with big new product launches. Given the setup and degree to which $40 has held throughout the worst of times, I like it. Massive short interest makes it all the better.

roark33

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 740
Re: FIZZ - National Beverage Corp
« Reply #43 on: March 06, 2020, 09:10:44 AM »
I have never been one of the tin-foil hat conspiracy types, but the idea that Pepsi had something to do with the lawsuit is more than a 0% possibility. 

Gregmal

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4106
Re: FIZZ - National Beverage Corp
« Reply #44 on: March 06, 2020, 04:20:28 PM »
Perhaps just a useless observation, but the noted volatility around 3:45 coincides with the exact time company buybacks must be pulled for the day. Wouldn't be shocked if they are now in the market @$45

bilo

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 22
Re: FIZZ - National Beverage Corp
« Reply #45 on: March 06, 2020, 08:01:05 PM »
Gregmal, agree the volatility was very odd last 30 minutes of the day - looked like a seller attempting to suppress new highs to me.  Very interested to hear that about the buybacks.  where can I find the other technical rules, if you happen to know?  Thanks. 

Gregmal

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4106
Re: FIZZ - National Beverage Corp
« Reply #46 on: March 06, 2020, 08:25:00 PM »
Gregmal, agree the volatility was very odd last 30 minutes of the day - looked like a seller attempting to suppress new highs to me.  Very interested to hear that about the buybacks.  where can I find the other technical rules, if you happen to know?  Thanks.

Securities lawyers and scouring the SEC rule book lol. Yea Iíve dabbled down that long and arduous road before with many a small cap company. I forget specifically but as it relates to here, my recollection is that under $500k average volume 3:30 is the cut off for repurchases, which can not exceed 25% average daily volume. If itís over, youíve got til 3:45 with the same volume restrictions. Donít quote me on the exact numbers but thatís the gist of it.

bilo

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 22
Re: FIZZ - National Beverage Corp
« Reply #47 on: March 09, 2020, 06:04:46 PM »
Incredible rally from the low to the close today, almost 22% - have to wonder if the Co. turned the buyback spigot on. 

roark33

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 740
Re: FIZZ - National Beverage Corp
« Reply #48 on: March 09, 2020, 09:08:00 PM »
There really wasn't any liquidity in the stock, the trades at 37 were really one-off.  I tried to buy at 37 for over an hour and had to move the bid up to 39.5 to get it filled.

mwtorock

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 215
Re: FIZZ - National Beverage Corp
« Reply #49 on: March 11, 2020, 06:16:59 AM »
https://www.wsj.com/articles/pepsico-nears-deal-to-buy-energy-drink-maker-11583893495?mod=hp_lead_pos3

PepsiCo Inc. on Wednesday agreed to buy Rockstar Energy Beverages, in a move that would expand the beverage giantís presence in the fast-growing energy-drink category. PepsiCo is to pay $3.85 billion for Rockstar.