Author Topic: FOXA - Twenty-First Century Fox Inc  (Read 25936 times)

dbuch

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Re: FOXA - Twenty-First Century Fox Inc
« Reply #20 on: January 03, 2017, 12:37:50 PM »
You can currently buy FOX voting shares at a 2.5% discount to non-voting FOXA shares.


ABM

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Re: FOXA - Twenty-First Century Fox Inc
« Reply #21 on: January 11, 2017, 08:02:29 PM »
It looks like FOX and LBTYK are going to face off in Europe along with everyone else. Who do you think will be most aggressive and do you like the FOX/Sky deal?

There are a lot of players to learn about but the main ones to me are Fox/Sky, LBTYK, and BT.   

Fox's Sky acquisition will make it the incumbent UK paytv provider that already reaches the entire country's population and has >50% market share.  As an aside, Sky is one of the largest media buyers in the world spending $6B USD in 2016 on mostly sporting rights.  This is about what NFLX spends and it is just below DIS's spend so Sky is no pushover. 

LBTYK is laying a lot of pipe in the UK (only reaches 60% of population) to improve broadband & paytv services.It is also investing in a "thick" MVNO network to boost mobile service offering (i.e. better quad play option) by partnering with BT/EE in a renewed agreement.

 BT is the #1 UK broadband provider and seems focused on growing its Paytv service as a new entrant.  Lastly, it is fresh off its mobile acquisition of EE that instantly made it the largest mobile provider in the country. 

LBTYK's CEO Fries was at Citi's conference last week and spoke openly about all the acquisition opps in Europe naming O2 specifically with Vodafone's assets remaining on investor minds. Combine that with Malone's comments from yesterday's LGF investor day and it sounds like we are in the early innings for communications M&A. UK contributes about 40% of LBTYK's EBITDA and pro-forma will contribute ~30% of FOX's EBITDA. 

I am wondering how can anyone be successful with so much intense competition brewing in a fairly mature industry.  It just seems bad for business. 

Malone, of course, argues the answer is, well, scale....

bizaro86

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Re: FOXA - Twenty-First Century Fox Inc
« Reply #22 on: January 01, 2019, 07:55:32 AM »
Bumping this as I think this is a nice risk-reward situation right now. I'm long FOX, which votes but is otherwise the same as FOXA (and a tad cheaper).

Both share classes are getting taken out by DID for $38 in cash and stock plus a stub. The $38 is half cash half shares, but there is a collar on the shares so you get the full $38 at any DIS price between $93.53 and $114.32. With DIS over $109 you're a lot closer to getting upside over the $38 than facing any downside. And if DIS goes below $93 that would be a back-up-the-truck opportunity, imo.

Anyway, I also think new fox is cheap here. It will be leveraged (they are paying a big dividend to Disney as part of the spin to cover taxes) but will get to write up and depreciate their assets, so have a good tax shield. Fox news is must-carry, and doesn't have the variable cost of sports contracts, their costs are pretty fixed as they've proven they can swap out talking heads. The network and stations business is also probably an ok business. Finally, they own the Fox lot in LA. Disney is leasing it for awhile, but after that I expect it to get sold for a nice one-time gain that will suprise the market.

Spekulatius

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Re: FOXA - Twenty-First Century Fox Inc
« Reply #23 on: June 03, 2019, 10:36:53 AM »
Bumping this again, as It gets cheaper. This is a good business and the owners may sell out at the right price. It still trades at premium to other TV stocks like CBS but perhaps deservedly so. I am putting this on my watchlist. It may be the best  TV property money can buy right now.
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Foreign Tuffett

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Re: FOXA - Twenty-First Century Fox Inc
« Reply #24 on: June 03, 2019, 06:53:46 PM »
Am I the only one concerned about Lachlan Murdoch as CEO? He has a track record of failure. Rupert is 88 and had some health problems last year....what happens when the "adult supervision" is gone?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-twentyfirstcenturyfox-appointment-lac/prodigal-son-returns-lachlan-murdoch-back-in-news-corp-idUSBREA2Q08P20140327

Spekulatius

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Re: FOXA - Twenty-First Century Fox Inc
« Reply #25 on: June 05, 2019, 09:26:09 AM »
Am I the only one concerned about Lachlan Murdoch as CEO? He has a track record of failure. Rupert is 88 and had some health problems last year....what happens when the "adult supervision" is gone?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-twentyfirstcenturyfox-appointment-lac/prodigal-son-returns-lachlan-murdoch-back-in-news-corp-idUSBREA2Q08P20140327
Yes Rupert passing on the baton could be an issue. There is currently a good writup in VIC available, which also compares this to CBS. I looked at CBS and passed on it, because of the issues with the owner and Viacom as well as capitalizing programming, leading to FCF being smaller than earnings. FOX does not have either issue. I think FCF is 9-10% ( back if the napkin calc, so I could be off a bit) and this business is growing. Next year is election year, so it should be good for TV, especially Fox News.

Small starter position as I want to learn more and get a better feel. I dumped some more cyclical stocks yesterday and rather recycle this into Stock/business like FOX.
Life is too short for cheap beer and wine.

KJP

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Re: FOXA - Twenty-First Century Fox Inc
« Reply #26 on: June 05, 2019, 10:26:42 AM »

FCF is 9-10% ( back if the napkin calc, so I could be off a bit) and this business is growing. Next year is election year, so it should be good for TV, especially Fox News.

That depends on how you define "growing."  I believe their "volume" defined as subs to MVPDs that pay Fox to rebroadcast their channels is declining, but they believe they can more than make up for that through increased or alternative pricing, e.g., high per-sub retrans fees (or fixed fees from certain Fox affiliates), higher reverse retrans, etc.  Tobacco companies have shown you can have great shareholder returns despite declining volume, but it's not easy. 

They're also quite open about building the Fox broadcast channel on live sports.  That has worked for them for decades, but will it continue to work if other players start to bid up those same rights?  Put another way, if the internet continues to erode the Fox network's historical competitive advantage in distribution, will Fox be able to extract any value from sports, or will a larger and larger share of their value accrue to the leagues?  Or is this all overblown, because the vast majority of the value in Fox is in the cable channels, in which Fox is a content producer, rather than a distributor/aggregator like the Fox broadcast channel?


ander

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Re: FOXA - Twenty-First Century Fox Inc
« Reply #27 on: June 05, 2019, 12:47:40 PM »
Am I the only one concerned about Lachlan Murdoch as CEO? He has a track record of failure. Rupert is 88 and had some health problems last year....what happens when the "adult supervision" is gone?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-twentyfirstcenturyfox-appointment-lac/prodigal-son-returns-lachlan-murdoch-back-in-news-corp-idUSBREA2Q08P20140327
Yes Rupert passing on the baton could be an issue. There is currently a good writup in VIC available, which also compares this to CBS. I looked at CBS and passed on it, because of the issues with the owner and Viacom as well as capitalizing programming, leading to FCF being smaller than earnings. FOX does not have either issue. I think FCF is 9-10% ( back if the napkin calc, so I could be off a bit) and this business is growing. Next year is election year, so it should be good for TV, especially Fox News.

Small starter position as I want to learn more and get a better feel. I dumped some more cyclical stocks yesterday and rather recycle this into Stock/business like FOX.

Spek - I would just be mindful that if FOX decides to ramp up their OTT (DTC) offerings that they will likely have an increase in capitalized programming spend affecting FCF. That doesn't bother me much on CBS and won't affect my view on FOXA either but just something to be mindful of.

Spekulatius

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Re: FOXA - Twenty-First Century Fox Inc
« Reply #28 on: June 05, 2019, 04:28:03 PM »

FCF is 9-10% ( back if the napkin calc, so I could be off a bit) and this business is growing. Next year is election year, so it should be good for TV, especially Fox News.

That depends on how you define "growing."  I believe their "volume" defined as subs to MVPDs that pay Fox to rebroadcast their channels is declining, but they believe they can more than make up for that through increased or alternative pricing, e.g., high per-sub retrans fees (or fixed fees from certain Fox affiliates), higher reverse retrans, etc.  Tobacco companies have shown you can have great shareholder returns despite declining volume, but it's not easy. 

They're also quite open about building the Fox broadcast channel on live sports.  That has worked for them for decades, but will it continue to work if other players start to bid up those same rights?  Put another way, if the internet continues to erode the Fox network's historical competitive advantage in distribution, will Fox be able to extract any value from sports, or will a larger and larger share of their value accrue to the leagues?  Or is this all overblown, because the vast majority of the value in Fox is in the cable channels, in which Fox is a content producer, rather than a distributor/aggregator like the Fox broadcast channel?

I believe the vast majority of FOX value is with the news channel. They basically own the right wing angle  on this. The NFL ticket is up in 2022, I believe, so they is something to watch out for.
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Okonomen

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Re: FOXA - Twenty-First Century Fox Inc
« Reply #29 on: June 10, 2019, 04:54:04 AM »
Seems like the Murdochs (both founder and son/CEO) are also directors (chair and co chair) with substantial investments in News Corp, the old Fox home. Doesnt this create some sort of conflict of interest with fox shareholders? I assume News Corp must be at least a distant competitor? Also think its not in the interest of fox shareholders that the company ceo is co chair in another big news company not just due to conflicts of interest but also just thinking time/ressources
« Last Edit: June 10, 2019, 05:09:09 AM by Okonomen »