Author Topic: FOXA - Twenty-First Century Fox Inc  (Read 33508 times)

Okonomen

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Re: FOXA - Twenty-First Century Fox Inc
« Reply #40 on: August 12, 2019, 11:33:17 AM »
Yeah sounds like a stretch. I hope to see some non core divestment soon. Dont like when pure plays starts to go weirdo shopping. 5% of ROKU, 5% of Stars Group. Now 100% of Credible Labs. No idea why. Just sell it already and convince investors that you do what you preach. Wouldnt be surprised if I one day felt forced to sell my shares due to this Lachlan being no way near the level of his dad


walkie518

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Re: FOXA - Twenty-First Century Fox Inc
« Reply #41 on: August 12, 2019, 05:35:20 PM »
Yeah sounds like a stretch. I hope to see some non core divestment soon. Dont like when pure plays starts to go weirdo shopping. 5% of ROKU, 5% of Stars Group. Now 100% of Credible Labs. No idea why. Just sell it already and convince investors that you do what you preach. Wouldnt be surprised if I one day felt forced to sell my shares due to this Lachlan being no way near the level of his dad

Stars will weave into the sports play.

Roku was a good investment per the chart, though I don't know much on the company or its future nor do I own the device.  Those I know who have it like it however...

Credible labs was a $400m investment.  If it doesn't half as well as Roku, we won't be so critical.

Then again, there might be reason to give FOX / Lachlan the benefit of the doubt that he is taking guidance from his father.  He doesn't need to work, ever.  Why is he doing this?  I would speculate that the scoreboard matters as does his father's approval (don't mean to sound lame?).

Stars could be an amazing investment 10 years from now, this is a similar thesis behind Perelman's investment in SGMS (though that has yet to fire). 

The buyback could be pretty material ... my initial figures indicated that despite this noise, FOXA is pretty cheap (and cheaper now)

Nomad

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Re: FOXA - Twenty-First Century Fox Inc
« Reply #42 on: August 16, 2019, 08:26:58 AM »
What do you all think about the commitments and contingencies listed in the 10-K? Looks like they're on the hook for $4.9b within a year and $14.8b within two to three years.

The NFL contract expires in 2022 and MLB is set to roll off in 2028.

walkie518

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Re: FOXA - Twenty-First Century Fox Inc
« Reply #43 on: August 16, 2019, 08:56:37 AM »
What do you all think about the commitments and contingencies listed in the 10-K? Looks like they're on the hook for $4.9b within a year and $14.8b within two to three years.

The NFL contract expires in 2022 and MLB is set to roll off in 2028.

Fox news and business are not going anywhere, but Fox Sports is an important piece of the puzzle.  They need the content. 

I believe the baseball rights are until 2028 but football is 2022. 

Can Amazon, ESPN, or NBC buy programming rights away from Fox? 

Certainly this is a risk if Fox pays less, but disruption to the consumer of content means the advertising will be worth less to advertising partners, and there will be other negative effects if the content moved to Amazon for example. 

Ultimately, while painful in the visibility of the future of the business, if Fox were to lose NFL programming rights, for example, I think they find another way to deploy the capital.

Okonomen

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Re: FOXA - Twenty-First Century Fox Inc
« Reply #44 on: August 16, 2019, 11:49:36 PM »
Good points.

By the way, I heard someone talk about Rupert Murdoch being very conservative but that his two sons are not. Could this be a potential problem now that Lachlan is running the show? If he suddenly style drifts the channels to capture non-republicans etc I think this can destroy a lot of brand value for their core viewer

Spekulatius

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Re: FOXA - Twenty-First Century Fox Inc
« Reply #45 on: August 17, 2019, 07:48:01 AM »
Good points.

By the way, I heard someone talk about Rupert Murdoch being very conservative but that his two sons are not. Could this be a potential problem now that Lachlan is running the show? If he suddenly style drifts the channels to capture non-republicans etc I think this can destroy a lot of brand value for their core viewer

Style drift in content would be easy to see. So far no dice, based on what I can tell. They basically have a lock on conservative viewers in their channels, it would be stupid to impair this. Itís a business, straight and simple. My concerns are mornin terms of conservative with respect to capital allocation.

I like the business, not the content  :o. Their focus on live events, lock on conservative viewers, tax deferr
Ende, high cash conversion ration (due to little capitalization of content) and the extra goodies in assets that may be monetizable. Also 2020 should be a monster year in terms of political advertising due to the election cycle. I think it is one of the best position cable channels out there.
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cmlber

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Re: FOXA - Twenty-First Century Fox Inc
« Reply #46 on: August 18, 2019, 06:46:40 PM »
lock on conservative viewers,

What odds do you put on Trump Network launching in 2021 or 2025?  And might that steal many conservative viewers? 

Okonomen

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Re: FOXA - Twenty-First Century Fox Inc
« Reply #47 on: August 19, 2019, 02:06:27 AM »
lock on conservative viewers,

What odds do you put on Trump Network launching in 2021 or 2025?  And might that steal many conservative viewers?

Doesnt sound like a big threat. Sounds like very unprofessional amateurs - https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2019/jun/15/oan-oann-fox-news-donald-trump

But would also like to hear someone elses thoughts about this

Okonomen

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Re: FOXA - Twenty-First Century Fox Inc
« Reply #48 on: August 19, 2019, 02:15:17 AM »
Another point could be that the "trump network" which is also called AON afaik will probably not be as succesful after the horrible trump era. I doubt that a potential new republican president in a few years - if not the democrats win - are as crazy, abd then the AON appeal would fall I guess

Spekulatius

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Re: FOXA - Twenty-First Century Fox Inc
« Reply #49 on: August 19, 2019, 03:34:44 AM »
lock on conservative viewers,

What odds do you put on Trump Network launching in 2021 or 2025?  And might that steal many conservative viewers?

Who knows what Trump will do. Anyways, has he had any success outside real estate so far? Then, he will be 77 in 2021. Maybe he starts another airline  ;D.
Life is too short for cheap beer and wine.