Author Topic: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust  (Read 29873 times)

Sharad

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Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
« Reply #50 on: June 19, 2019, 02:18:29 PM »
They're going to write a show on this one...damn.

https://tpltblog.com/2019/06/19/amended-counterclaims-barrys-election-challenged/

For the record, David Barry has been a trustee since 2016. Wow.
"If we are not able to ask skeptical questions, to interrogate those who tell us that something is true, to be skeptical of those in authority, then we are up for grabs for the next charlatan - political or religious - who comes ambling along."
- Carl Sagan


Hielko

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Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
« Reply #51 on: June 20, 2019, 03:04:21 AM »
Following this owe with interest from the sidelines :)

Gregmal

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Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
« Reply #52 on: October 31, 2019, 06:24:34 PM »
Solid numbers today

https://seekingalpha.com/pr/17682859-texas-pacific-land-trust-announces-third-quarter-2019-financial-operating-results

Ive started rebuilding this position under $600 as its come back in. This once mysterious and hard to value company seems to becoming a little easier to value as the revenue numbers continue their ascent. Curious if anyone else still follows or if this is now a forgotten favorite of yesteryear.

Foreign Tuffett

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Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
« Reply #53 on: October 31, 2019, 07:49:59 PM »
Solid numbers today

https://seekingalpha.com/pr/17682859-texas-pacific-land-trust-announces-third-quarter-2019-financial-operating-results

Ive started rebuilding this position under $600 as its come back in. This once mysterious and hard to value company seems to becoming a little easier to value as the revenue numbers continue their ascent. Curious if anyone else still follows or if this is now a forgotten favorite of yesteryear.

As I mentioned last year, something like this is beyond my ability to model. See the below short pitch on Whiting Petroleum for an example of how complex trying to model shale E&P stuff can be. Type curves, EURs, decline rates, etc. Additionally, TPL is basically a play on drilling in just a few West Texas counties, so IMO to bullish this you have to have a strong opinion about future oil and gas activity in those particular counties. I am mildly bullish on oil, but this is in the too hard pile for me.

https://twitter.com/EnergyCredit1/status/1189920022375862274

ValueMaven

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Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
« Reply #54 on: November 01, 2019, 04:29:01 AM »
I own it - at a fairly higher level from here ...

Yes - rev's are exploding, with the forced buyback etc as per the charter ... at some point in the future, there will literally be just 1 share left of TPL  Havent added - but was encouraged by last nights #s.  They need new corp governance,  Extremely interesting special situation IMHO

how do you model something with 1) exploding net income and revs/margins 2) a company that literally can only buyback its stock ... there are only like ~7.5M units traded ... down from 500M back in 1930!

Gregmal

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Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
« Reply #55 on: November 01, 2019, 05:26:07 AM »
Part of me is absolutely in the Foreign Tuffett camp with this. Its one of the main reasons O&G is generally a pretty solid no-no zone for me. TPL I can get comfortable making a bit of an exception because it has other things going for it as well, and as we are seeing, a pretty dedicated long term shareholder.

I like the mandate to buyback stock. Except they haven't been doing this lately.

I like that it is a trust and not a corporation; just cash checks dont write them...except now that is changing and with the water biz they are at 20 something head count IIRC.

So because of the above and its place as an O&G play, Ill probably have an internal position limit cap. However between the sheer magnitude of their land holding, royalty revenue streams, and basically just a lack of shares outstanding...I can get comfortable to a degree. Haircut the hell out of their revenue and O&G growth and then just assume they are run as they have traditionally been. As Valuemaven mentions, that, plus the convergence of all the other good stuff and hopefully a return to share buybacks, allow time to be your friend here.

Sharad

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Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
« Reply #56 on: November 01, 2019, 08:01:05 AM »
I still own this, and try to buy it whenever the price falls into the mid-$500s. That said, I remain disappointed with the terrible capital allocation. Or, dare I say it, their lack of capital allocation. The Trust is supposed to buy back sub-shares, and has failed to do so for two straight quarters. Yes, exploration should continue to rise, especially since their land overlays Anadarko Petroleum, and Occidental will need to justify the rich price they paid for the company.

The company continues to see higher easement revenue, which usually has stickiness, and should mean more oil production. Oil price is anybody's guess, so the future will always be murky, but seeing $50 EPS this year isn't out of the realm of possibility. Let's hope they resume buybacks instead of just having special committee meetings every two weeks.

Rant over.
"If we are not able to ask skeptical questions, to interrogate those who tell us that something is true, to be skeptical of those in authority, then we are up for grabs for the next charlatan - political or religious - who comes ambling along."
- Carl Sagan

ValueMaven

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Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
« Reply #57 on: November 09, 2019, 12:26:59 PM »
$250m in cash in the bank no debt ... could pay a $10 - $20 special dividend per share ... would prefer buybacks at this point however.  possible to value - exploding net income, coupled with a sharecount which has declined from 500m shares back in the 30s, to 7.7m shares today.  Only issue is the Trustees, who should be removed at all costs.  next catalyst is the c-corp conversion.  If and when that happens, this doubles

ValueMaven

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Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
« Reply #58 on: November 16, 2019, 12:09:46 PM »
new website, new investor deck with a lot of new info ... would love to hear what others thing... i think they are prepping for a c-corp conversion and possibly 1-10 split to improve liquidity

Philbert77

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Re: TPL - Texas Pacific Land Trust
« Reply #59 on: November 16, 2019, 12:33:21 PM »
new website, new investor deck with a lot of new info ... would love to hear what others thing... i think they are prepping for a c-corp conversion and possibly 1-10 split to improve liquidity
That would be lovely but I fear it is all just window dressing - like "see we aren't crooks and you should let us keep our lifetime appointments and forget all this nonsense of proper corporate governance".

The way they fought so hard against the appointment of a new shareholder proposed trustee and wasted so much shareholder money fighting the very thing the shareholders wanted makes me very cynical.

But perhaps they have seen the writing on the wall. I really hope you are right...