Author Topic: GM - General Motors  (Read 631064 times)

ajc

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Re: GM - General Motors
« Reply #1690 on: May 26, 2019, 01:54:30 PM »

Recent long interview with Daniel Ruiz about why he's bearish on GM, FCAU, & F, together with a graph of US auto loan delinquency rates below.
Feel free to ignore the vast majority of DiMartino-Booth's macro opinions.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BXJ1Xvmun80




Spekulatius

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Re: GM - General Motors
« Reply #1691 on: May 27, 2019, 05:26:28 AM »
AJC - the above Interview is well worth listening too. I believe they Daniel Ruiz is onto something. one thing they should be noted is they since the US car industry has become an US truck industry, it is essentially protected by a 25% import tax (chicken tax). I believe this tax has a lot to do with the higher profit margins in this sector (the other fact is that trucks are just way more popular in the US than anywhere else), so a trade deal could cause considerable lower profit margins in the long run ironically.
Life is too short for cheap beer and wine.

JRM

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Re: GM - General Motors
« Reply #1692 on: May 27, 2019, 05:42:53 AM »
AJC - the above Interview is well worth listening too. I believe they Daniel Ruiz is onto something. one thing they should be noted is they since the US car industry has become an US truck industry, it is essentially protected by a 25% import tax (chicken tax). I believe this tax has a lot to do with the higher profit margins in this sector (the other fact is that trucks are just way more popular in the US than anywhere else), so a trade deal could cause considerable lower profit margins in the long run ironically.

This was true historically.  However, foreign manufacturers build their trucks in the U.S. with mostly non-union labor.  The baby boomer generation had strong allegiances to either Ford or Chevrolet; but not younger generations.  People are buying Toyota Tundras and Tacomas.  The brand allegiances are still strong, but not like they used to be.

sleepydragon

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Re: GM - General Motors
« Reply #1693 on: May 27, 2019, 06:53:54 AM »
AJC - the above Interview is well worth listening too. I believe they Daniel Ruiz is onto something. one thing they should be noted is they since the US car industry has become an US truck industry, it is essentially protected by a 25% import tax (chicken tax). I believe this tax has a lot to do with the higher profit margins in this sector (the other fact is that trucks are just way more popular in the US than anywhere else), so a trade deal could cause considerable lower profit margins in the long run ironically.

This was true historically.  However, foreign manufacturers build their trucks in the U.S. with mostly non-union labor.  The baby boomer generation had strong allegiances to either Ford or Chevrolet; but not younger generations.  People are buying Toyota Tundras and Tacomas.  The brand allegiances are still strong, but not like they used to be.

 Talibans drive Toyota trucks, and Toyota is doing nothing about it.

SHDL

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Re: GM - General Motors
« Reply #1694 on: May 27, 2019, 06:59:37 AM »

cmlber

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Re: GM - General Motors
« Reply #1695 on: May 27, 2019, 07:02:43 AM »
The baby boomer generation had strong allegiances to either Ford or Chevrolet; but not younger generations.  People are buying Toyota Tundras and Tacomas.  The brand allegiances are still strong, but not like they used to be.

This may be your perception, but it is not in the data.  The Detroit 3 control 92% of the full-size pick-up truck market, up from 88% a decade ago.

The mid-size market has been dominated by the Tacoma, but only because Ford, GM, and Chrysler had no product in this much smaller segment until very recently.

ander

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Re: GM - General Motors
« Reply #1696 on: May 27, 2019, 07:17:14 AM »
Any thoughts on a Fiat Chrysler / Renault tie-up on auto industry? Do margins come down for the industry? Share shifts likely? More mergers likely? Or more of a non-event for industry? Recall: Sergio M. had pushed for industry consolidation for auto industry.

JRM

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Re: GM - General Motors
« Reply #1697 on: May 27, 2019, 08:32:35 AM »
The baby boomer generation had strong allegiances to either Ford or Chevrolet; but not younger generations.  People are buying Toyota Tundras and Tacomas.  The brand allegiances are still strong, but not like they used to be.

This may be your perception, but it is not in the data.  The Detroit 3 control 92% of the full-size pick-up truck market, up from 88% a decade ago.

The mid-size market has been dominated by the Tacoma, but only because Ford, GM, and Chrysler had no product in this much smaller segment until very recently.

Brand allegiance is still very strong for full size pickup market.  i'm thinking it will not be as strong in the future.  We'll see.

ander

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Re: GM - General Motors
« Reply #1698 on: May 31, 2019, 06:26:29 AM »

LowIQinvestor

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Re: GM - General Motors
« Reply #1699 on: May 31, 2019, 10:28:29 AM »
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/31/automaker-shares-plunge-after-trumps-surprise-mexico-tariffs-gm-shares-fall-5percent.html

DB estimates that a 25% Mexico tariff would be a $6 B EBIT hit to GM.

25% mexico tariff Aint gonna happen.

At a 5 PE all these fears are more than reflected.

Buying long-dated GM calls today.