Author Topic: GIL - Gildan Activewear Inc  (Read 16473 times)

KCLarkin

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Re: GIL - Gildan Activewear Inc
« Reply #40 on: March 27, 2020, 11:59:53 AM »
Anyone still following this? I'm mainly interested in Hanesbrands, but figured I'd keep it simple with less threads.

Hanes feels less exposed than Gildan given Gildan's reliance on the blank t-shirt market (camps, events, etc). At face value it would seem that people would likely keep wearing underwear through the crisis, but curious if anyone has a different take? I know Hanes has circulated in short circles in the past.

Following this closely. Luckily sold most of my position near the peak. I have a few shares left from 2009/2010.

The best thing is that Gildan is very exposed. If it survives, without major dilution, it will be a multi-bagger. The problem is it could take two years (assuming vaccine) for imprintables market to recover. Large events will probably be one of the last parts of the economy to recover.

HBI has much higher debt. Gildan is also headquartered in Montreal, which has a history of bailouts (see Bombardier and SNC). So I think GIL survives. Not sure about HBI. It is true that people will still buy underwear, but the replacement cycle can stretch pretty far.

For now, I am just watching.


JayGatsby

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Re: GIL - Gildan Activewear Inc
« Reply #41 on: March 27, 2020, 12:28:27 PM »
It is true that people will still buy underwear, but the replacement cycle can stretch pretty far.

For now, I am just watching.
lol, fair point. The Champion line at HBI will get hit pretty hard near term. Nobody is buying exercise clothes when gyms are closed. Medium term they might benefit from a trade down effect.

The debt seems fairly manageable to me. 3x EBITDA, but of course that could turn into more if they get hit hard, EBITDA  and burn cash.

Anecdotally, my company (entertainment center of sorts  :o) stopped buying Gildan due to quality issues. They pilled horribly. The local t-shirt guy said he'd seen quality deterioration at Gildan and had stopped recommending them. We use a company called Port & Company now, which is owned by a private company called Sanmar.


K2SO

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compoundvalue

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Re: GIL - Gildan Activewear Inc
« Reply #43 on: March 31, 2020, 08:32:05 AM »
Anyone still following this? I'm mainly interested in Hanesbrands, but figured I'd keep it simple with less threads.

Hanes feels less exposed than Gildan given Gildan's reliance on the blank t-shirt market (camps, events, etc). At face value it would seem that people would likely keep wearing underwear through the crisis, but curious if anyone has a different take? I know Hanes has circulated in short circles in the past.

Started looking at Hanesbrands today. The~5.0X EV/LTM EBITDA caught my attention. Will probably dig deeper but seems like if it survives it has multibagger potential

longlake95

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Re: GIL - Gildan Activewear Inc
« Reply #44 on: March 31, 2020, 08:44:01 AM »
I've owned GIL for a few years. Added recently. Painful yes. permanent loss of capital...probably not. Yes, GIL is more exposed to the print wear segment, that will be painful. I think print wear may bounce back soon that some think. I always shy'd away from HBI due to the debt - although I have not checked out the balance sheet lately. Maybe you will come away with a different point view.

KCLarkin

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Re: GIL - Gildan Activewear Inc
« Reply #45 on: March 31, 2020, 09:18:01 AM »
I think print wear may bounce back soon that some think.

Why? Once lockdowns end, social distancing will continue. A large portion of printwear is for large events. These will be the last things to normalize.

There is also an inventory issue. Distributors are sitting on inventory. Printers probably have inventory. Gildan has inventory. It will take awhile before this inventory is burned off enough for Gildan to restart factories.

However, they have a smart, adaptable management team. If a cruise line can raise debt and equity under current conditions, Gildan will surely survive.

JayGatsby

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Re: GIL - Gildan Activewear Inc
« Reply #46 on: March 31, 2020, 12:24:31 PM »
After more research, the negative of HBI is there's been long-term declines in the core US innerwear business. I haven't dug deep enough to figure out why. That's been covered up by solid gains in their Champion sportswear line. Champion seems like a brand that's well positioned for a cost-conscious consumer.

frank87

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Re: GIL - Gildan Activewear Inc
« Reply #47 on: March 31, 2020, 01:23:51 PM »
After more research, the negative of HBI is there's been long-term declines in the core US innerwear business. I haven't dug deep enough to figure out why. That's been covered up by solid gains in their Champion sportswear line. Champion seems like a brand that's well positioned for a cost-conscious consumer.

Hanes' women's intimates have been in decline for years now - partly attributed to retail store closures but also to new brands. Private label competition from large retailers have also hurt innerwear writ large but the men's underwear and socks business has been more resilient.

jhcap

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Re: GIL - Gildan Activewear Inc
« Reply #48 on: April 02, 2020, 04:18:22 PM »
CEO is the founder and is a big share holder which is encouraging (has a lot of skin in the game). This is getting interesting at current prices.

Viking

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Re: GIL - Gildan Activewear Inc
« Reply #49 on: April 02, 2020, 04:59:51 PM »
I agree that the stock looks cheap. However, they earn almost all their money from the printwear business. I also agree with KCLarkin that the printwear business is likely going to be severely hurt for a couple of quarters. The other side of their business (retail) has been a poor performer for years.

Perhaps their real opportunity will be as a consolidator in the printwear business, especially into a new market like Europe. Gildan has made many acquisitions over the years.

Perhaps i should just buy a small position and forget about it. If they execute well (Europe aquistion) the stock will likely be up 50-100% in 2-3 years. My problem is i tend to way overthink investment decisions (and most other things :-)