Author Topic: GRIF - Griffin Industrial Realty  (Read 19688 times)

BG2008

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Re: GRIF - Griffin Industrial Realty
« Reply #110 on: November 01, 2019, 12:04:29 PM »
Yahoo finance GRIF Trading volume attached, got me excited for a second

Thanks for clearing this up, Thepupil


BG2008

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Re: GRIF - Griffin Industrial Realty
« Reply #111 on: November 01, 2019, 12:07:07 PM »
Yeah, Nasdaq.com shows 14,616 shares traded yesterday.  Bummer. 

Gregmal

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Re: GRIF - Griffin Industrial Realty
« Reply #112 on: November 01, 2019, 12:39:44 PM »
Either way, I think the situation has gotten interesting.

First my speculation and subjective 2c.

Stocks trade in ranges, until something material happens. They're also obviously influenced by macro/broader movement in asset price direction. So GRIF has basically done the mid 30's to high 30's thing now for a while. The range has narrowed, higher lows to me seem evident. 35 as a bottom turns to 36, and the upper end adjusts as well. Whereas, lets say HHC announcing a strategic review catapults the stock into a new trading range, GRIF hasn't really had any material events. On the other end, the consistent evidence of undervaluation to me is not immaterial either. I would think the upper end of this range should probably hold for now, and shares are just waiting for a more definitive push to launch higher. I'd certainly be a short term, speculative buyer again around $37-$38 in light of the recent news, otherwise am cool holding the modest amount Ive got.

The other thing I'd focus on is exposure. Dillard's isn't a slam dunk trade at $55 on its own. Neither is the short interest by itself. But in the 50's, during a period of favorable buyback activity, it's more appealing. Once you start seeing talk about Dillard's, and short squeezes, and the shares start getting a little zippy, you've got the receipt for a great trade. In its own little way, you can see GRIF becoming it's own little cocktail of successful ingredients. The exposure is definitively happening, albeit slowly and in ways you only see with thinly traded micro caps. But the tell tale signs are there. Eyeballs are on this more now than probably anytime prior.

Otherwise, Gabelli has been a seller, but still owns a ton. The family supposedly has a few eager sellers. Either they're idiots, or they keep an eye on their investments, and in which case, probably cant help but notice what the underlying assets are currently going for. I wouldn't be in this exclusively for a sale, but again, the ingredients for a home run cocktail are all there...

Deepdive

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Re: GRIF - Griffin Industrial Realty
« Reply #113 on: November 02, 2019, 09:25:40 PM »
Either way, I think the situation has gotten interesting.

First my speculation and subjective 2c.

Stocks trade in ranges, until something material happens. They're also obviously influenced by macro/broader movement in asset price direction. So GRIF has basically done the mid 30's to high 30's thing now for a while. The range has narrowed, higher lows to me seem evident. 35 as a bottom turns to 36, and the upper end adjusts as well. Whereas, lets say HHC announcing a strategic review catapults the stock into a new trading range, GRIF hasn't really had any material events. On the other end, the consistent evidence of undervaluation to me is not immaterial either. I would think the upper end of this range should probably hold for now, and shares are just waiting for a more definitive push to launch higher. I'd certainly be a short term, speculative buyer again around $37-$38 in light of the recent news, otherwise am cool holding the modest amount Ive got.

The other thing I'd focus on is exposure. Dillard's isn't a slam dunk trade at $55 on its own. Neither is the short interest by itself. But in the 50's, during a period of favorable buyback activity, it's more appealing. Once you start seeing talk about Dillard's, and short squeezes, and the shares start getting a little zippy, you've got the receipt for a great trade. In its own little way, you can see GRIF becoming it's own little cocktail of successful ingredients. The exposure is definitively happening, albeit slowly and in ways you only see with thinly traded micro caps. But the tell tale signs are there. Eyeballs are on this more now than probably anytime prior.

Otherwise, Gabelli has been a seller, but still owns a ton. The family supposedly has a few eager sellers. Either they're idiots, or they keep an eye on their investments, and in which case, probably cant help but notice what the underlying assets are currently going for. I wouldn't be in this exclusively for a sale, but again, the ingredients for a home run cocktail are all there...

I think this is a great summary of the situation.  I spoke with someone recently and mentioned the 7.1% that traded in October.  His response is "holy cow", 7.1% in 2 days for a 22% float company is a major event.  This forum is starting to have a conversation about GRIF.  It took some time to convince people.  There are still some skeptics who are overly focused on the "no sale" scenario.  Yet you have guys like ThePupil and Gregmal buying shares.  These two have expertise in real estate investing and tend to get in at decent prices.  Gregmal has the 6th sense for good entry points.  It seems like the downside is only $2-4 if it trades back down to $36 because Gregmal and ThePupil will be buying it along with others.  Perhaps you don't get the full $72 without a sale, but even at 75-80% of NAV, it trades at $54-58 which is a good 35-45% higher than the current price.  You also have the free optionality that it gets bought out at $72.  It isn't like there are 5 articles on Seeking Alpha touting Ricks' Cabaret.  The articles of Griffin on SA are a few years old and a lot has happened since then.     

BG2008

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Re: GRIF - Griffin Industrial Realty
« Reply #114 on: November 12, 2019, 10:59:25 AM »
Just a reminder to people that Griffin pays their dividend on an annual basis.  Last year, it was $0.45 and this year, it could be $0.50.  The ex-date last year was November 30th and the pay date was December 7th.  So whatever that you wind up paying for the shares, you should probably adjust it by 45-50 cents per share which you should get back in less than a month.  Not a game changer, but it's something to consider.  This is approximately 1.3% yield. Most of the industrial REITs have 2.5% yield.  Thus, this is almost a half a year of a peer's dividend yield.