Author Topic: GRPN - Groupon  (Read 17089 times)

Jurgis

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Re: GRPN - Groupon
« Reply #50 on: December 07, 2018, 06:51:56 AM »
I used to use the occasional groupon a few years back... but fuck me did they become the most annoying company. Emails every day from 4 different groupons. Groupon goods, groupon restaurants, group on services...

The deals dont seem so good anymore, mostly they are trying to push tatty impulse purchases. If others like me they cut off all ties and never looked at it again.

Anecdotally, I haven't used Groupon for years. I'm not on any of their email lists anymore.

But even when I used it, it was mostly random purchases that I would not have made otherwise. Not that I complain. E.g. we went to see a hawk show ( http://newenglandfalconry.com/ ) that was fun. Some of the restaurant groupons were OKish.

Now that I think about it, it might be fun to look at it again. Though I'm just too busy to wade through the email flow.  ::)
« Last Edit: December 07, 2018, 06:53:43 AM by Jurgis »
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Sportgamma

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Re: GRPN - Groupon
« Reply #51 on: December 07, 2018, 07:18:22 AM »
Surprisingly, they are still getting about 65 million visits to their site monthly.

heth247

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Re: GRPN - Groupon
« Reply #52 on: December 07, 2018, 08:39:49 AM »
Surprisingly, they are still getting about 65 million visits to their site monthly.

Have you checked out their mobile app?  It is doing pretty well. 70% traffic is from mobile.

given2invest

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Re: GRPN - Groupon
« Reply #53 on: December 07, 2018, 10:24:41 AM »
The replies are exactly why I think it's interesting.  I'm shocked 10 years after the "fad" it's still this huge business which is now majority mobile and only 20% the "old groupon". 

Look at the numbers...it's not at all expensive and when they finish the transformation you could argue it should command a very high multiple.  It's most certainly not a melting ice cube anymore.   The board is well incentivized and they are sellers at the right price.

https://www.recode.net/2018/7/7/17532138/groupon-acquisition-buyer-sale

Stock was near $5 when this article came out.  The business has not deteriorated 40% since then.  For the most part, they have hit numbers.  Just messy as they cut out unprofitable business.

It's also probably great for positioning for a recession. 
« Last Edit: December 07, 2018, 10:26:20 AM by given2invest »

heth247

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Re: GRPN - Groupon
« Reply #54 on: December 07, 2018, 10:45:17 AM »
The replies are exactly why I think it's interesting.  I'm shocked 10 years after the "fad" it's still this huge business which is now majority mobile and only 20% the "old groupon". 

Look at the numbers...it's not at all expensive and when they finish the transformation you could argue it should command a very high multiple.  It's most certainly not a melting ice cube anymore.   The board is well incentivized and they are sellers at the right price.

https://www.recode.net/2018/7/7/17532138/groupon-acquisition-buyer-sale

Stock was near $5 when this article came out.  The business has not deteriorated 40% since then.  For the most part, they have hit numbers.  Just messy as they cut out unprofitable business.

It's also probably great for positioning for a recession.

The problem is they are not doing a turnaround, but a transformation, which is supposed to replace their high-margin but obsolete voucher-based business model with low-margin but more frequent buyer-based business model. I think Market is not sure if this will be successful and how long it will takes.

given2invest

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Re: GRPN - Groupon
« Reply #55 on: December 07, 2018, 11:05:40 AM »
The replies are exactly why I think it's interesting.  I'm shocked 10 years after the "fad" it's still this huge business which is now majority mobile and only 20% the "old groupon". 

Look at the numbers...it's not at all expensive and when they finish the transformation you could argue it should command a very high multiple.  It's most certainly not a melting ice cube anymore.   The board is well incentivized and they are sellers at the right price.

https://www.recode.net/2018/7/7/17532138/groupon-acquisition-buyer-sale

Stock was near $5 when this article came out.  The business has not deteriorated 40% since then.  For the most part, they have hit numbers.  Just messy as they cut out unprofitable business.

It's also probably great for positioning for a recession.

The problem is they are not doing a turnaround, but a transformation, which is supposed to replace their high-margin but obsolete voucher-based business model with low-margin but more frequent buyer-based business model. I think Market is not sure if this will be successful and how long it will takes.

It's in it's 3rd or 4th year though (the transformation).   Less than 20% is now the voucher business.  Majority of biz is mobile.  The bottom line #s are getting BETTER not worse.  People too focused on top line and quarterly results.  There are huge synergies to a strategic buyer too.  I think your margin of safety is very very big at $3.

I think growth/tech people hate it cause no top line and value guys hate it cause ex stock based comp it's not "cheap".  So it lingers.

heth247

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Re: GRPN - Groupon
« Reply #56 on: December 07, 2018, 11:21:17 AM »
It's in it's 3rd or 4th year though (the transformation).   Less than 20% is now the voucher business.  Majority of biz is mobile.  The bottom line #s are getting BETTER not worse.  People too focused on top line and quarterly results.  There are huge synergies to a strategic buyer too.  I think your margin of safety is very very big at $3.

I think growth/tech people hate it cause no top line and value guys hate it cause ex stock based comp it's not "cheap".  So it lingers.

What do you mean by "20% is voucher business"?  I thought 20% is meant for email-based. The majority of their "local" gross profit is still based on voucher (whether you show it on your phone or print it out). That is why they want to come up with G+ to get rid of the voucher.  In my area, only 4 offers are available for G+, which is voucherless. All others voucher-based.

given2invest

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Re: GRPN - Groupon
« Reply #57 on: December 07, 2018, 12:56:50 PM »
It's in it's 3rd or 4th year though (the transformation).   Less than 20% is now the voucher business.  Majority of biz is mobile.  The bottom line #s are getting BETTER not worse.  People too focused on top line and quarterly results.  There are huge synergies to a strategic buyer too.  I think your margin of safety is very very big at $3.

I think growth/tech people hate it cause no top line and value guys hate it cause ex stock based comp it's not "cheap".  So it lingers.

What do you mean by "20% is voucher business"?  I thought 20% is meant for email-based. The majority of their "local" gross profit is still based on voucher (whether you show it on your phone or print it out). That is why they want to come up with G+ to get rid of the voucher.  In my area, only 4 offers are available for G+, which is voucherless. All others voucher-based.

Yah I meant email.  My main point is Groupon peaked many many years ago and has been known as a joke for many many years yet the #s are very robust.  This isn't the yellow pages.   And the yellow pages had no new biz plan.

heth247

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Re: GRPN - Groupon
« Reply #58 on: December 07, 2018, 04:34:00 PM »
It's in it's 3rd or 4th year though (the transformation).   Less than 20% is now the voucher business.  Majority of biz is mobile.  The bottom line #s are getting BETTER not worse.  People too focused on top line and quarterly results.  There are huge synergies to a strategic buyer too.  I think your margin of safety is very very big at $3.

I think growth/tech people hate it cause no top line and value guys hate it cause ex stock based comp it's not "cheap".  So it lingers.

What do you mean by "20% is voucher business"?  I thought 20% is meant for email-based. The majority of their "local" gross profit is still based on voucher (whether you show it on your phone or print it out). That is why they want to come up with G+ to get rid of the voucher.  In my area, only 4 offers are available for G+, which is voucherless. All others voucher-based.

Yah I meant email.  My main point is Groupon peaked many many years ago and has been known as a joke for many many years yet the #s are very robust.  This isn't the yellow pages.   And the yellow pages had no new biz plan.

My understanding is that from 2015-2017, they are in "turnaround" mode, cutting the excess fat and shrink to profitability. But starting from 2018, they are in "transformation" mode, trying to change their business model from voucher-based flash deal to a "utility" that is used more frequently by people. Whether that will be successful remains to be seen.

Sportgamma

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Re: GRPN - Groupon
« Reply #59 on: December 09, 2018, 06:02:37 AM »
I haven't been following Groupon at all and haven't looked at the fundamentals in detail. However, a short glance at the numbers does pique my interest.

I find it interesting that Walmart has been buying rather disparate online assets recently and it would not surprise me if other conventional retailers will follow suit to a larger degree.

Time to dig in, I guess.