Author Topic: HHC - Howard Hughes Corp  (Read 61393 times)

BG2008

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Re: HHC - Howard Hughes Corp
« Reply #160 on: July 11, 2019, 06:34:25 PM »
Does he overlay a qualitative aspect to his screening.  Joel Greenblatt's magic formula will sometimes return results like the BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust that has very high margin but should be valued on a DCF basis.   


Spekulatius

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Re: HHC - Howard Hughes Corp
« Reply #161 on: July 11, 2019, 06:56:26 PM »
Does he overlay a qualitative aspect to his screening.  Joel Greenblatt's magic formula will sometimes return results like the BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust that has very high margin but should be valued on a DCF basis.

I don’t think he does, because his approach is based on mechanical screening. His approach is indeed related to Greenblatt‘s “Magic Formula”, which uses EV/EBIT and Return on capital, expect he only uses EV/EBIT. Tobias claims that his simpler formula actually works better than Greenblatts magic formula in backtests.

Tobias Carlisle is active on Twitter and has a pretty good podcast You can ask him directly, if interested.
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Liberty

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Re: HHC - Howard Hughes Corp
« Reply #162 on: July 12, 2019, 07:39:17 AM »
I don't think this needs to be personalized in a negative manner. HHC has thousands of investors long and short, I'm sure.

If Tobias has been short for even just a year, he's not lost anything, as the stock is now just back to where it was not long ago.
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CorpRaider

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Re: HHC - Howard Hughes Corp
« Reply #163 on: July 12, 2019, 12:04:25 PM »
It's not just a naïve ev/ebit screen (he's got financials in there, for example).  There's a lot of info in his books and he has appeared on several podcasts to discuss the strategy.  I think, however, after learning from Einhorn, I've got an absolute zero shorting policy in all investing. 

KJP

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Re: HHC - Howard Hughes Corp
« Reply #164 on: October 21, 2019, 01:15:59 PM »

Gregmal

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Re: HHC - Howard Hughes Corp
« Reply #165 on: October 21, 2019, 01:26:52 PM »

KJP

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Re: HHC - Howard Hughes Corp
« Reply #166 on: October 21, 2019, 01:30:35 PM »
Just announced:  https://investor.howardhughes.com/file/Index?KeyFile=400512570

Ouch. Talk about a let down.

Yes, I expected more.  Ackman has lauded Weinreb and Herlitz for years.  I guess they weren't on board with his plan. 

Here's the presentation for today's 5pm call:  http://www.snl.com/interactive/newlookandfeel/4265772/Transformation-Plan-Release.pdf

I love this from slide 5's description of the new CEO:  "Culture carrier and collaborative leader"
« Last Edit: October 21, 2019, 01:34:27 PM by KJP »

Gregmal

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Re: HHC - Howard Hughes Corp
« Reply #167 on: October 21, 2019, 01:34:44 PM »
Just announced:  https://investor.howardhughes.com/file/Index?KeyFile=400512570

Ouch. Talk about a let down.

Yes, I expected more.  Ackman has lauded Weinreb and Herlitz for years.  I guess they weren't on board with his plan. 

Here's the presentation for today's 5pm call:  http://www.snl.com/interactive/newlookandfeel/4265772/Transformation-Plan-Release.pdf

@$100 its interesting again, but just like a lot of other public RE, its cheap but so what? Now you have no catalyst and the dreaded "they shopped for a deal and couldn't find something that worked" overhang... will be keeping an eye on this for sure. But damn, theres so much in this market that either falls into the category of really cheap but dead money, or super expensive and risky. Hard to find anything in between.

thepupil

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Re: HHC - Howard Hughes Corp
« Reply #168 on: October 21, 2019, 01:48:11 PM »
I bought small position $90-$97 starting in late 2018, sold 1/3 of shares after strategic announce, will be a buyer again L90's and average down. hard to believe the upside/more bullish estimates of NAV if they shopped assets and this is the plan they came up with. 

In some ways, this is exciting as HHC was a toehold for me and now it has potential to become a real position, but I have the least confidence in the NAV here of all the other real estate stuff because it has the most variables.   

Gregmal

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Re: HHC - Howard Hughes Corp
« Reply #169 on: October 21, 2019, 02:18:57 PM »
I bought small position $90-$97 starting in late 2018, sold 1/3 of shares after strategic announce, will be a buyer again L90's and average down. hard to believe the upside/more bullish estimates of NAV if they shopped assets and this is the plan they came up with. 

In some ways, this is exciting as HHC was a toehold for me and now it has potential to become a real position, but I have the least confidence in the NAV here of all the other real estate stuff because it has the most variables.

Unfortunately, having seen and been apart of enough of these over the years, thats the narrative that is going to take a long time to get rid of. No more mystery about NAV, just a ceiling now quite a bit below what many thought.