Author Topic: HYMC - Hycroft Mining (fka Allied Nevada Gold)  (Read 2956 times)

thepupil

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Re: HYMC - Hycroft Mining (fka Allied Nevada Gold)
« Reply #10 on: July 31, 2020, 11:08:49 AM »
https://commonstockwarrants.com/spac-interview-with-mudrick-capital-muds-and-hycroft-mining-hymc/

interview with Mudrick re the asset, hosted by some gold bug type.

since beginning of thread, stock is up 30%, warrants up 60-70% versud GDXJ up 13%.

good idea so far, but I'm a little less excited given the call feature.

One thing that I would note is one could use the warrant to create a low risk short position in the company, not unlike what one might do with an ITM convertible bond.

If one goes long the warrant and short the common at current prices, you get $10.75 of cash and the most you can lose is $0.75 (plus borrow) if the mine is worthless, you do well, but there's path dependence because the stock could go up and the warrant could be forced to exercise.

I still like her on the long and strong side though.



« Last Edit: July 31, 2020, 11:24:25 AM by thepupil »


thepupil

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Re: HYMC - Hycroft Mining (fka Allied Nevada Gold)
« Reply #11 on: August 01, 2020, 05:26:27 AM »
getting some love from this guy lol.

I'm going t keep bumping HYMC until we're at robintrack 10,000.

Future business card: former gold stock promoter, VNOQ PGREQ bagholder

we started the thread at 21 cases of robintrack-$HYMC-2020 and are now at 55 cases. it's contagious!

https://robintrack.net/symbol/HYMC

https://twitter.com/MushOnStocks/status/1289254227450232832?s=20

Quote
Eddie Mush
@MushOnStocks 18h
What's not to like about $HYMC? It's a junior gold miner *and* a SPAC

Quote
Eddie Mush
@MushOnStocksJul 27
Sentiment check: CoBF complaining that an idea's upside is potentially capped at 4x
« Last Edit: August 01, 2020, 05:29:25 AM by thepupil »

thepupil

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Re: HYMC - Hycroft Mining (fka Allied Nevada Gold)
« Reply #12 on: August 03, 2020, 11:01:22 AM »
the warrants are up about 100% so far, but have lost virtually all of their time value.

 I was able to short some stock and buy some more warrants today around lunchtime at basically no warrant premium. the stock does have borrow (18% annualized) but I still think the warrants are very cheap given what I see as a binary/volatile situation and earnings are in a week.

on an intrinsic value basis only, my payoff profile (from cost) is below, though we have 5 years until the warrants expire, so that will mute losses if the stock falls (since the time value of the warrant will increase from almost $0). the short stock position changed the shape of the profile (for the better) in my opinion.

Stock   Return
 0.5    70%
 1.5    55%
 2.5    39%
 3.5    24%
 4.5    8%
 5.5    -7%
 6.5    -23%
 7.5    -38%
 8.5    -54%
 9.5    -69%
 10.5    -85%
 11.5    -100%
 12.5    -48%
 13.5    3%
 14.5    55%
 15.5    106%
 16.5    158%
 17.5    210%
 18.5    261%
 19.5    313%
 20.5    364%
 21.5    416%
 22.5    468%
 23.5    519%
 24.5    571%
 25.5    622%
 26.5    674%
 27.5    726%
 28.5    777%

« Last Edit: August 03, 2020, 11:08:22 AM by thepupil »

thepupil

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Re: HYMC - Hycroft Mining (fka Allied Nevada Gold)
« Reply #13 on: August 10, 2020, 05:28:27 AM »
Results are out, my ignorant interpretation is that this is more likely to not work than to work.

If anyone with more knowledge of mining wishes to opine, feel free.

De-risked significantly Sold all in the pre market with some sloppy warrant sales at extremely ďcheapĒ prices to last stock price. If the stock/warrants goes up today, because thereís something in the results that someone more knowledgeable sees that I donít, cool, but I donít see it.

I would also note that o attempted to conduct warrant arbitrage on this last week (I bought the warrants and shorted stock for $0.2 more than the stock price through the warrants) and failed because IBKR would not allow me to exercise the warrants. Rather than investigate further, I moved on. For obvious reasons I didnít share this. This decreased overall profits as i exited at a higher spread.

All in, Iíll have made a 50-100%+ profit ~70%on maximum amount at risk and have learned something about making sure you can exercise before trying to do an arb trade.

Stupid little rinky drink beer money trade.

Original Thesis:
- cheap levered bet on speculative gold miner with 10x upside

Changes to thesis:
- Upside capped due to warrant call feature unless one can exercise for intrinsic value if stock goes above $18.00 (just didn't do the work to see this at first)
- Unable to exercise via IBKR with ease, ergo upside more capped and/or more time consuming than I want. This also makes the long warrant short stock trade more dangerous
- warrant price doubled increasing sizing/risk, along with capped upside making risk/reward worse
-company reported results that don't seem great and indicates they need more capital
« Last Edit: August 10, 2020, 06:14:02 AM by thepupil »