Author Topic: TOBII  (Read 4235 times)

NewbieD

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TOBII
« on: May 10, 2016, 05:43:45 AM »
No time to do a proper write-up but want to introduce this company to the board. Some earlier companies I've written about here haven't got english IR but this one does.

Web: www.tobii.com
List: Nasdaq OMX Stockholm Mid Cap
Market cap: ~600 mUSD

Three Product segments:
Tobii Dynavox: Assistive Eye-tracking technology for the disabled. People with cerebral palsy, ALS etc who can't use the mouse. Profitable, stable growth partly driven by new subisidy programs under obamacare. Major part of current sales.
Tobii Pro: Eye-tracking for marketing research support. Low growh but profitable.
Tobii Tech: Development arm. Integration into PCs, tablets, VR, Cars etc. First generation product for PC gaming Selling and supported by some new major games (The Division, Assassins Creed Rogue). Search Tobii The Divsion on youtube and there are tons of demos of how it works in games.

Large R&D costs in Tobii Tech but on total level just turning cash flow positive and large cash cushion means no need for additional funding.

Market position seems strong with good IP protection (80 patents and 215 applications). Most of any company within the area.

Latest report: http://www.tobii.com/siteassets/tobii-group/investor-relations/financial/tobii-interim-report-q1-2016-en-04may2016.pdf

For me this is a buy because I see the Tobii Dynavox segment itself mostly supporting the valuation and I perceive a real chance Tobii Tech will develop into something big.




NewbieD

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Re: TOBII
« Reply #1 on: August 29, 2016, 12:10:14 PM »
Nothing much happening here during summer. News today that they got a second high-profile customer for their Eyechip:

http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20160828005062/en/Tobii-AB-Tobii-receives-order-Acer-IS4

NewbieD

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Re: TOBII
« Reply #2 on: August 31, 2016, 06:35:30 AM »
Another one.

http://www.tobii.com/group/news-media/press-releases/2016/8/tobii-in-collaboration-with-alienware/

@51.30 in this video http://www.acer.com/ac/sv/SE/content/ifaberlin2016

Two customers with Market Caps of 50+ times their own in a couple of days is not bad even if it's early days for the product category.


TedKord

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Re: TOBII
« Reply #3 on: August 31, 2016, 08:30:23 AM »
NewbieD - You really dig these expensive growth stories. TOBII mkt cap is 6270m (SEK) and LTM EBITDA is 61.7m, or 100x multiple if the numbers on Bloomberg are right. The August presentation I found doesn't seem to give any forward guidance. BBerg has a 2017 EBITDA estimate of 102m, so still 60x. Do you think that's understated?

KJP

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Re: TOBII
« Reply #4 on: August 31, 2016, 09:49:32 AM »
NewbieD - You really dig these expensive growth stories. TOBII mkt cap is 6270m (SEK) and LTM EBITDA is 61.7m, or 100x multiple if the numbers on Bloomberg are right. The August presentation I found doesn't seem to give any forward guidance. BBerg has a 2017 EBITDA estimate of 102m, so still 60x. Do you think that's understated?

Along the same lines, even if you strip out the losses from the development arm, isn't this trading around 50x EBIT?

NewbieD

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Re: TOBII
« Reply #5 on: August 31, 2016, 12:16:41 PM »
NewbieD - You really dig these expensive growth stories. TOBII mkt cap is 6270m (SEK) and LTM EBITDA is 61.7m, or 100x multiple if the numbers on Bloomberg are right. The August presentation I found doesn't seem to give any forward guidance. BBerg has a 2017 EBITDA estimate of 102m, so still 60x. Do you think that's understated?

Along the same lines, even if you strip out the losses from the development arm, isn't this trading around 50x EBIT?

Yes I concur it's not cheap on current earnings. Stating that the profit making arms support the valuation was not quite true in the first post and less so now after a bit of a runup.

Could one way to view it be that you pay half your money for a GARP type investment? Clear market leader in two seemingly stable niches growing at something like 8-12% / year with a decent chance of a longish runway. The other half then is paying 400 MUSD or so for the Tech Part. Which is basically an option on eye tracking becoming a standard feature in consumer electronics and/or vehicles. To me it seems like a pretty good price. Yes, there will be competition but TOBII has more patents than anyone and the recent deals seem a sign that they're on top for now. Apple has recently filed some Eye-Tracking patents.

Seems similar to when Apple bought Authentec for their fingerprint sensors. Authentecs main competitor Fingerprint Cards became a 150-bagger since 2012 when they became the defacto standard for fingerprints in Android phones. Same story there - they also had the best tech in a new sensor technology. One thing that suggests this is at least a remote possibility is that Apple recently filed its first eye-tracking patents (http://www.patentlyapple.com/patently-apple/2016/08/apple-wins-patent-for-advanced-3d-eyehead-tracking-system-supporting-apples-3d-camera.html)

What is the needed chance for that to happen for this to be a good buy? 1/40? 1/20?
« Last Edit: August 31, 2016, 12:20:57 PM by NewbieD »

whistlerbumps

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Re: TOBII
« Reply #6 on: October 28, 2019, 01:36:02 PM »
Anyone looked at Tobii at all recently?  Tobii Dynavox and Tobii Pro are dominant players in their fields and are solidly profitable.  Tobii Tech is still very early stage but seems to also have strong market shares and has announced good partnerships in gaming PCs (Dell Alienware), VR (HTC, Qualcomm) and PCs (Intel, Lenovo). 

Seems like eye-tracking in consumer products could be on the verge of more widespread adoption which could lead to an explosion of Tech revenues and a revaluation of the company.  I'd be curious if anyone has looked at it.