Author Topic: JD - JD.COM  (Read 47144 times)

Liberty

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TheAiGuy

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Re: JD - JD.COM
« Reply #141 on: May 22, 2020, 07:13:32 AM »
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-20/senate-passes-bill-to-delist-chinese-companies-from-exchanges


This ~was~ a 20% position for me until this morning, when I fully exited the position. I've held this for ~3.5 years, with an IRR of ~20%, but I am quite concerned about this new escalation. I should say that I'm heavily restricted and this is my first trade in several years, and I'm I have to get (rarely granted) approval to buy or sell a security.

winjitsu

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Re: JD - JD.COM
« Reply #142 on: May 22, 2020, 11:46:51 AM »
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-20/senate-passes-bill-to-delist-chinese-companies-from-exchanges

This ~was~ a 20% position for me until this morning, when I fully exited the position. I've held this for ~3.5 years, with an IRR of ~20%, but I am quite concerned about this new escalation. I should say that I'm heavily restricted and this is my first trade in several years, and I'm I have to get (rarely granted) approval to buy or sell a security.

Will be very interesting to watch how this plays out. There already have been grumbles from founders in China that the communist party is installing lackeys at each company and slowly taking over control under the guise of "Chinese Socialism"

Secondly, the VIE structure is BS anyways and I suspect we'll see this with LK, which in theory has plenty of value left, but post de-listing I doubt shareholders will have claims to anything meaningful.

TheAiGuy

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Re: JD - JD.COM
« Reply #143 on: May 22, 2020, 12:29:39 PM »
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-20/senate-passes-bill-to-delist-chinese-companies-from-exchanges

This ~was~ a 20% position for me until this morning, when I fully exited the position. I've held this for ~3.5 years, with an IRR of ~20%, but I am quite concerned about this new escalation. I should say that I'm heavily restricted and this is my first trade in several years, and I'm I have to get (rarely granted) approval to buy or sell a security.

Will be very interesting to watch how this plays out. There already have been grumbles from founders in China that the communist party is installing lackeys at each company and slowly taking over control under the guise of "Chinese Socialism"

Secondly, the VIE structure is BS anyways and I suspect we'll see this with LK, which in theory has plenty of value left, but post de-listing I doubt shareholders will have claims to anything meaningful.

I actually doubt de-listing in and of itself is all that meaningful to the value of the shares (you still get to keep the shares, even if they have to move to the pink sheets or a different exchange; e.g. hong kong, london), but my concern is that if both the US and Chinese Govt's escalate, both will be willing to screw over US investors down the line.  My previous thesis was that the Chinese Govt wouldn't want to harm access to capital markets, but I think that argument is weak now.

winjitsu

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Re: JD - JD.COM
« Reply #144 on: May 22, 2020, 02:30:17 PM »

I actually doubt de-listing in and of itself is all that meaningful to the value of the shares (you still get to keep the shares, even if they have to move to the pink sheets or a different exchange; e.g. hong kong, london), but my concern is that if both the US and Chinese Govt's escalate, both will be willing to screw over US investors down the line.  My previous thesis was that the Chinese Govt wouldn't want to harm access to capital markets, but I think that argument is weak now.


Thinking specifically of Sinoforest as a counter-point, but agree with you on the later. There's a big narrative change with Xi ... I think the HK case is dying as well if China continues to exert legislative influence there. End game is probably just directly opening up Shanghai / Shenzhen.

TheAiGuy

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Re: JD - JD.COM
« Reply #145 on: May 22, 2020, 04:56:23 PM »

I actually doubt de-listing in and of itself is all that meaningful to the value of the shares (you still get to keep the shares, even if they have to move to the pink sheets or a different exchange; e.g. hong kong, london), but my concern is that if both the US and Chinese Govt's escalate, both will be willing to screw over US investors down the line.  My previous thesis was that the Chinese Govt wouldn't want to harm access to capital markets, but I think that argument is weak now.


Thinking specifically of Sinoforest as a counter-point, but agree with you on the later. There's a big narrative change with Xi ... I think the HK case is dying as well if China continues to exert legislative influence there. End game is probably just directly opening up Shanghai / Shenzhen.

I realize I misread what you originally wrote.  I canít say that I have enough information to agree or disagree but that sounds plausible.