Author Topic: JMIA - Jumia  (Read 6551 times)

cameronfen

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Re: VERY early
« Reply #30 on: July 24, 2019, 06:40:22 AM »
Interesting business. Macro wise - its INEVITABLE there will be an African MELI/EBAY/AMAZON. NO QUESTION about it. IT is, however, VERY early days and it will be an expensive road ahead establishing a leading network effect market there (esp. with all those jurisdictions, simultaneously, with people to back behind the mobile/online curve).

The good news, there will be many opportunities to pick a position later.

meanwhile - its better to check out SE for South East Asia leader, much closer to lead inflection point.

I was long SE before too, the problem with SE is that they are in a battle with lazada for dominance in south east asia.  Its unclear who will win (as of probably six months ago when I was long).  Sea is backed by Tencent, Lazada by Alibaba.  They are throwing so much money at the problem, SE is not even gross margin profitable.  Sea also has a much bigger market cap than Jumia depsite a much worse competitive position.  Sea is growing much faster than Jmia though. 


writser

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Re: JMIA - Jumia
« Reply #31 on: January 17, 2020, 07:27:38 AM »
Jumia up ~25% yesterday. Am still absolutely not interested :) .

Rocket Internet still seems somewhat compelling to me. The bought back 1.75m shares in December on-exchange and dissolved a cross-holding with United Internet AG, simplifying the balance sheet and buying back cheap shares. Both operations combined cost ~E120m, so if we adjust Q3 then there's still ~E2500m cash remaining with ~136m shares, or E18.50 / share? On top of that a private portfolio valued at E1200m, E300m in loans and a public portfolio worth E300m (roughly adjusted for the sale of United Internet, didn't bother to look in more detail so far). I.e. you buy investments worth E13 / share for E4? Seems nice. I wouldn't be surprised if Oliver Samwer tries to take the company private at some point. Still sucking my thumb. Any thoughts?

Sorry for hijacking this thread again. I should maybe open a separate thread but I feel my d.d. is not up to par yet.
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@thewritser