Author Topic: JOE - ST. JOE CO  (Read 49503 times)

Williams406

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Re: JOE - ST. JOE CO
« Reply #110 on: June 13, 2019, 09:23:29 AM »
The projected $900 million cap ex spend relative to an $850 million enterprise value is interesting to think about. I think you're right about 24 months or so before the company gets the recurring cash flow snowball rolling from stacking commercial JV's. During the interim some lot sales will roll in along with their hospitality/timberland segments but it will take time for those commercial JV's to get built and cash flow. In an extended recession or shock, though, that $900 million cap ex is a much, much smaller number.

I took a second trip over Memorial Day weekend to check out Pensacola Beach-Panama City Beach area during a peak time. Although I didn't spend much time in JOE country, I did drive 30A a few times and drove/walked around Watersound Origins again. That community--and Camp Creek--is interesting for it's close proximity to 30A. It's not technically on 30A but is really close. JOE has huge land tracts cleared with utilities on the lots ready to go. Margaritaville Latitudes to me is still the key development to watch over the next several years. If that gets traction, development can happen in a lot of directions.

My hope had been that the company would be able to do joint ventures with progressively smaller capital contributions while continuing stock buybacks if pricing makes sense...really "Singleton" this thing. It looks to me like they have turned down the dial on buybacks as they contemplate JV capital requirements.


Williams406

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Re: JOE - ST. JOE CO
« Reply #111 on: June 19, 2019, 04:55:53 AM »
I've attached a pdf of home prices from 2004-2018 along the 30A corridor. The link below has Florida population growth by MSA each decade since 1970. The 30A data is of limited utility in evaluating JOE today, but does hint at the impact financial distress can have on home prices and demand.

https://florida.reaproject.org/analysis/comparative-indicators/growth_by_decade/population/reports/#page_4

Spekulatius

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Re: JOE - ST. JOE CO
« Reply #112 on: June 19, 2019, 08:13:43 AM »
Hmm, mean housing in Panama City ~200k vs beach front property ~$1M. Seems that the real Smart play would just be to buy an average house ins Panama City. If the high end gets traction, prices for are average housing canít stay at $200k, if not 200k is probably ok.  Heads I win, tails I donít lose...
I know itís naive...,
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Williams406

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Re: JOE - ST. JOE CO
« Reply #113 on: June 19, 2019, 02:10:07 PM »
Before you make any offers, bear in mind that Panama City is different than Panama City Beach, which in turn is different than 30A. Being quite familiar with high-end, gulf-front homes in SW Florida (I bike and run by them constantly while on vacation in my much cheaper rental) 30A nevertheless was impressive--a .2 acre lot far from the gulf in Watercolor is $1.5m. I don't really see JOE as a play on high-end real estate getting any more traction in NW Florida than it has now, though. If Panama City Beach and Panama City simply attract people to live, retire, and work there, JOE will do nicely. They have the inventory to supply that growth and few others do in any kind of scale.


Spekulatius

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Re: JOE - ST. JOE CO
« Reply #114 on: June 19, 2019, 03:51:18 PM »
Before you make any offers, bear in mind that Panama City is different than Panama City Beach, which in turn is different than 30A. Being quite familiar with high-end, gulf-front homes in SW Florida (I bike and run by them constantly while on vacation in my much cheaper rental) 30A nevertheless was impressive--a .2 acre lot far from the gulf in Watercolor is $1.5m. I don't really see JOE as a play on high-end real estate getting any more traction in NW Florida than it has now, though. If Panama City Beach and Panama City simply attract people to live, retire, and work there, JOE will do nicely. They have the inventory to supply that growth and few others do in any kind of scale.

I am not buying anything. I understand the difference between an average house in a city and a beachfront luxury house, but ai think if the luxury housing market really gains tractionís, the people that live there to run the economy will need 250k houses and buying those would tear more risk.

With luxury homes on the fringes, my experience is that they can run cold very quickly in a recession. This area is far out there and without doubt, in a housing decline, these types of areas are the first to hit the skids. I have seen this happened two times on the fringes of the Bay are for example in 2002 and in particular in 2006-2010. Those areas were in the dumps long after he Bay Area core had recovered.
Life is too short for cheap beer and wine.

Williams406

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Re: JOE - ST. JOE CO
« Reply #115 on: June 20, 2019, 06:40:23 AM »
Spekulatius,

I appreciate your Bay Area observation and agree that NW FL is very susceptible to recession risk. I think the 30A price data 2004-2018 validates that concern. The link below is simply news formalizing the deal on Margaritaville Latitudes. Groundbreaking scheduled by end of 2019.

http://ir.joe.com/news-releases/news-release-details/minto-communities-margaritaville-holdings-and-st-joe-company-0

Gregmal

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Re: JOE - ST. JOE CO
« Reply #116 on: September 23, 2019, 02:13:38 PM »
Question for those that follow it more closely than I...

Have they completely ceased repurchasing stock? I just started nibbling again under $17, same idea really as my first entry, good for a quick 50c-$1 pop and if it goes lower gets into a nicer area to buy in more size and then flip on the way up for a few bucks. Share count IIRC was around 61M last year. Now only 60M. For a while these guys were taking out 10% or so per year.

Saluki

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Re: JOE - ST. JOE CO
« Reply #117 on: September 24, 2019, 06:40:17 AM »
IIRC from the conf call,  they plan on using most of the cash for the planned capex, including recycling cash profits from finished projects in the pipeline, so I don't see buybacks in the near term.  This is my 3rd or 4th biggest position (neck and neck with SSW depending on the day) so I thought I was fully loaded but when it dipped below $17 I couldn't help myself and bought a little more.   I'm overweight in real estate (i own HHC, TPHS and SRG too) but when I think about what could go wrong, it's hard to find a way to make this go to zero, so either the surprises are on the upside or it just sits there at the same price for a while. It's a big position for me, but not one of the ones that would keep me up at night.
If it's important, do it every day. If it's not important, don't do it at all.  -Dan Gable

Gregmal

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Re: JOE - ST. JOE CO
« Reply #118 on: September 24, 2019, 07:00:30 AM »
Agree 100% with regard to downside and being overweight much of the RE stuff.

I do wish they'd continue the buybacks here though, especially if they do see a meaningful revenue inflection point occurring in the next few years; borrowing say, $75-$100M a year for the next half decade to annihilate the share count would create a lot of value for shareholders and hardly put the company in an onerous position.

SI

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Re: JOE - ST. JOE CO
« Reply #119 on: September 24, 2019, 08:49:41 AM »
Anyone have insight to Berkowitz, did his last Form 4 indicate he was redeeming in kind? How much of his position is held in his fund that he doesn't control?