Author Topic: 0184.HK - Keck Seng Investments  (Read 31724 times)

TontineCapital

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Re: 0184.HK - Keck Seng Investments
« Reply #40 on: July 03, 2015, 06:50:42 AM »
Thanks for the feedback. Even if my valuation is high, there is plenty of room to to earn a good return. Their other investment vehicle Keck Seng Berhad also bought a NY hotel. If these guys are moving money offshore we could have a US hotel REIT before you know it. That would certainly bridge the valuation gap.

Packer - I will take a look at that NOI number and those other discounted NAV plays you suggested. Thanks!


thepupil

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Re: 0184.HK - Keck Seng Investments
« Reply #41 on: July 03, 2015, 07:35:56 AM »
Not sure if you care (and I doubt they would care, or maybe you work for them) but the name tontine capital is kind of already taken by Jeff Gendell.

Laxputs

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Re: 0184.HK - Keck Seng Investments
« Reply #42 on: August 28, 2015, 12:48:03 PM »
H2 2015
Macau leasing looks surprisingly good considering the challenging operating environment for many companies there lately.
Canada, Japan look good.
China losses cut in 1/2 and not that material.
Vietnam had 23% margins which is comparable to 2013 and 2014 full years. H1 2014 they rang in 31% margins.

They continue to wait for the HK-Zhuhai-Macau bridge now slated for 2017 to sell their grossly undervalued Macau properties.

Some questions:
1.Based on room rates and occupancy levels, the US operations look good. But the revenue has doubled since PYP due to Sofitel however the income has not budged. The occupancy rate for Sofitel was 85%, so I would think it would be positively contributing.
2. How are margins so high in Vietnam? Are slot machines jacking up the margins to the 20-25% range in combination with hotel operations?

Valuation
If US only contributes 50m profit a year, I'm getting approximately 13.80HKD/share in Aug 2017 when the Macau properties are sold. If one or two properties are sold at 6x BV then maybe the market rerates them before the rest are sold.

If the US contributes closer to 100m profit a year which I had originally estimated, then  the shares may be worth closer to 15$/share.

Both valuations assume the Chinese hotel operations break even, Vietnam does about 156m. I have the property lease at 90m but it may not be that accurate. I've backed out about 32% NCI in the above.


carlo

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Re: 0184.HK - Keck Seng Investments
« Reply #43 on: August 31, 2015, 09:57:26 PM »
Quote
(v) however I fail to reconciliate the "outliar" here: http://www.century21.com.mo/properties_detail.php?id=392
This small 1,100 sqft Ocean Garden condo trades for HKD 38k/m2 ....I would appreciate your comments and colour on this?
Real estate listings in Macau (and certainly in China) are not always very reliable. Ie. agents would use them to lure potential buyers. FWIW, other datapoints I found suggested much higher prices.

Quote
But the revenue has doubled since PYP due to Sofitel however the income has not budged. The occupancy rate for Sofitel was 85%, so I would think it would be positively contributing.
There's a remarkable increase in wage expense, from 147m to 262m. During the period, they've added approximately 340 new staff, presumably from Sofitel. An increase in the average salary per headcount is therefore to be expected. I wonder though if there might have been severances, bonuses, etc somehow related to the acquisition. That might partly explain the missing HK$ ~30m in contribution from Sofitel. Just a working hypothesis.

The other thing that might not be obvious to someone casually browsing this thread is that Macau/China, by the most conservative NAV estimates above, accounts for ~$4 out of ~$14 in per-share terms. It's unusually well-diversified compared to many other cheap holding co's trading in HK.

KJP

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Re: 0184.HK - Keck Seng Investments
« Reply #44 on: July 30, 2016, 09:35:27 AM »
Here's a recent, asset-by-asset look at Keck Seng:  https://www.scribd.com/doc/310386678/Keck-Seng-Investments-Heller-House-Investment-Memo-4-7-16

Short version:  There appears to be a huge disconnect between the market values of and cash flows produced by the company's assets, on the one hand, and the current market price of its shares, on the other hand. 

ccplz

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Re: 0184.HK - Keck Seng Investments
« Reply #45 on: July 31, 2016, 03:56:56 AM »
Seems like this stock is perpetually undervalued..?

KJP

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Re: 0184.HK - Keck Seng Investments
« Reply #46 on: March 09, 2018, 07:52:23 AM »
http://www.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2018/0309/LTN20180309956.pdf

Also, the HK-Zhuhai-Macau bridge will actually open this year, supposedly!

Laxputs

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Re: 0184.HK - Keck Seng Investments
« Reply #47 on: April 24, 2020, 01:47:09 PM »
Wonder how Keck Seng will do through his crisis. Youtube presentation from late 2019 of this fund's interest (English slideshow, Spanish narration).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OcPa68O1wbI

manuelbean

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Re: 0184.HK - Keck Seng Investments
« Reply #48 on: April 27, 2020, 07:50:25 AM »
I've talked to Alejandro (the guy in the video) several times. He's a great guy. There are several young Spanish money managers that own Keck Seng.
I just don't understand why they bought the rest of the Canadian hotel a month ago for such a "high" price when they could've waited and buy it for less.
These guys have proven to be good capital allocators (probably not on the last Japan deal... still can't figure what happened there) so I would expect them to enter into some M&A deals.

misterkrusty

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Re: 0184.HK - Keck Seng Investments
« Reply #49 on: April 27, 2020, 04:03:05 PM »
The major catalyst here is the sale of the Macau apartments, which has felt like waiting for Godot.  The first mention of selling these came in the 2013 annual (filed april '13):

"Further, with the estimated completion of the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge in 2016/2017, significant improvement in access to Macau from China via high-speed trains, and general improvement in infrastructure in Macau itself with the construction of the light rail trains, property values in general are expected to hold steady and increase in line with economic growth. ... Against this background, and with an objective to enhance shareholders’ value, the Group has decided to continue its policy of adopting a flexible approach towards pricing and marketing of its properties held for sale in Macau."


The HKZM Bridge finally opened around year-end 2018.  But in Sept'19 the 2019 Interim Report (filed Sept'19) they said they were deferring any sales "to a later time in order to capture the benefits to be accrued with the opening of the HKZM Bridge and the anticipated opening of the Macau light-rail transit system later this year."

Phase 1 of the light-rail opened in Dec'19.  But in the 2019 annual they said they were deferring any sales "to a later time in order to capture the benefits to be accrued with the opening of the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge and the newly opened Macau light-rail transit system in December 2019"

I imagine we'll need to wait for COVID19 to pass, and that's fine.  But afterwards, are they really going to begin sales, or will we later learn they're waiting for more light-rail to be built (or some other delay)?  So far, only the blue line from Taipa Ferry Terminal to Ocean is in operation.  The connection from Ocean to Barra on the Macau Peninsula is slated to be finished in 2022/23.  The light green and yellow lines connecting Seac Pai Van to Lotus Bridge on the mainland has begun construction and that's all we know so far. 

https://www.travelchinaguide.com/images/map/macau/light-rail.jpg

Has anyone been in contact with mgmt recently?